So we are forced to deal with average outcomes rather than specific forecasts. (hussmanfunds.com)
Taking the weighted average outcome for the two states of the world still produces a poor average return / risk tradeoff. (hussmanfunds.com)
What's important, from our standpoint, is that the monkeys didn't try to predict which researcher would give them the better deal in each particular instance, but instead focused on average outcomes. (hussmanfunds.com)