All trend analyses are based on backcasting this year's EPI methods on historical data. (sciencedaily.com)
It is the trends that are being compared, and moreover trends in backcasts using common forcing inputs, so use of ensemble means is certainly appropriate. (climateaudit.org)
This results of such backcasting has not been reported by the IPCC either because it was not done, or more likely, because the results showed the models to be so poor that showing the results would destroy any credibility for the projection models. (sjsu.edu)