That would be a much more fair bet as to whether the mean average global temperature is going up or going down. (realclimate.org)
I take one quarter of CO2 - doubling response which would be 0.075 + / - 0.05 K. I guess that the rate of fair bet for a person who holds such view would be about 1:50 if normal distribution is assumed. (julesandjames.blogspot.ru)
«Here's our level from which we broke, but the key is a big moment coming if you think it's [going] up it's a fair bet.» (cnbc.com)