The 2009 observed extent is approaching the 30 - year linear trend line of previous September minima (5.5 million square kilometers). (searcharcticscience.org)
Note that the smoothing has been changed from m = 11 years to m = 15 years compared to our 2007 publication in order to obtain an approximately linear trend line from 1990, the start year of the TAR projections. (pik-potsdam.de)
Because of that El Nino bulge, the calculated trend will remain slight positive for quite a while (highlighting the problem of using linear trend lines on «event» driven data) (realclimatescience.com)