In any event, our view is that the 10 - year nominal total return on such conventional asset allocations is likely to be less than 2 % annually. (hussmanfunds.com)
As a result, the most historically reliable valuation measures now suggest that the S&P 500 will experience a net loss over the coming decade, while including broader (if slightly less reliable) measures results in projected S&P 500 10 - year annual nominal total returns of about 1.4 % annually (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these estimates). (hussmanfunds.com)
When valuations have been near those historical norms, the S&P 500 has generally followed with average nominal total returns of about 10 % annually. (hussmanfunds.com)