Not exact matches
What follows is that the likelihood of 3
sigma + temperature
events (defined using the 1951 - 1980 baseline mean and
sigma) has increased by such a striking amount that attribution to the general warming trend is practically assured.
[Response: While warm in the US, the 30s overall were not that warm, and so the percentage of 3
sigma + events globally was lower than the last decade.
And choosing highly exceptional
events to calculate return times — like 3 -
sigma + events, or the record - breaking
events — is sensible for focusing on the
events that cause the most damage because society and ecosystems are least adapted to them.
The incidence of 3
sigma + events in any one decade is independent of what might be the best fit to the distribution and the Gaussian approximation doesn't come into any of the calculations above.
If you then have evidence that includes (1) a shift in the central tendency and (2) increasingly frequent observations of
events going over x
sigma, over some decent sample of space or time or both and based on the best estimated shape of the original distribution, then it is at the very least, reasonable to assume that the former tails have shifted
+ / - in concert with the rest of the distribution; that is to say, the entire original distribution has shifted.
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events, u...