Sentences with phrase «+ uniform swing»
Simple forecasting models (polling average + uniform swing): Nigel Marriot Electionpolling Principalfish Adrian Kavanagh
https://electionsetc.com/ Not exact matches
These thresholds of 6 and 16 points are based on what would be required under uniform swing assumptions for the Conservatives to win a bare majority and a 100 + majority respectively.
Complex Forecasting Models: ElectionForecast.co.uk (Chris Hanretty) Electoral Calculus (main and local election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout estimates)