The thermal inertia lag is nontrivial — it means that current temperature is less than the equilibrium temperature expected from current forcing by a factor of tau * g, where tau
= time constant of thermal inerta and g = growth rate of emissions.
Not exact matches
A note for the technically minded: The quadratic fit to the sea - level curve can be written as: SL (t)
= a t ^ 2 + b t + c, where t
= time and a, b and c are
constants.
The short answer is: if the «planet GISSII» has a big
time constant, and you increase the «forcing» linearly (or just in any monotonically increasing function of
time), you'll tend to under - estimate sensitivity by fitting lines near «
time = 0», or using much model data near
time = 0.
Weight gain
= calories in — calories out (
times a
constant but I hope you can forgive that simplification).
lgl says: April 14, 2011 at 11:15 am Good, then you realize TSI is not a measure of T «C * dT / dt
= dH / dt
= Q - E» and «
Time constant τ varies linearly with heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the ocean, thus larger heat capacity and larger time const
Time constant τ varies linearly with heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the ocean, thus larger heat capacity and larger
time const
time constant.
Schwartz has a nice analysis of the energy balance Good, then you realize TSI is not a measure of T «C * dT / dt
= dH / dt
= Q - E» and «
Time constant τ varies linearly with heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the ocean, thus larger heat capacity and larger time const
Time constant τ varies linearly with heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the ocean, thus larger heat capacity and larger
time const
time constant.
Instead it will converge to V eventually, namely the equilibrium state (I
= 0), with a
time constant of RC.
If we measure Rin
= Rout
= 100Gt / yr (carbon, not CO2), and C
= 800Gt, we can immediately deduce the
time constant
Each of these components, C1, C2 and C3, is then associated with some fraction of the emissions into the atmosphere, E, and a particular removal mechanism: where b3 (
= 0.1) is a fixed
constant representing the Revelle buffer factor, and b1 is a fixed
constant such that b1 + b3
= 0.3 [11]; b1 represents the fraction of atmospheric CO2 that would remain in the atmosphere following an injection of carbon in the absence of the equilibrium response and ocean advection; b0 represents an adjustable
time constant, the inverse of which is of order 200 years.
These two floors take the forms and where A and B are
constants with units of gigatonnes of carbon per year (GtC yr − 1) and represent the size of the emissions floor in the year 2050 (t
= t2050), and τ is a
time constant set to 200 years.
Notice that every
time you see total energy equation written in thermo theory — it looks something like this: total energy
= TE
= PE + KE
= constant.
The trend line is desribed by the equation T
= a * t + b where T is the temperature, t is the
time, a is a
constant and b is a
constant.
All these capacitive models are simply modeled by first - order rate laws τ * dy / dt + y (t)
= f (t) where f (t) is the forcing function and τ is a
time -
constant.
For example, taking some
time periods with roughly
constant slope, we have (slope x 1000 for easy reading): 1900 — 34: 1000 * slope
= 1.23 / year (note CO2ref does not affect the slope) 1935 — 49: 1000 * slope
= 0.114 / year (Depression, WWII etc) 1950 — 58: 1000 * slope
= 1.67 / year (recovery stage 1) 1959 — 75: 1000 * slope
= 2.92 / year (now things are moving) 1976 — 94: 1000 * slope
= 4.36 / year (more and more growth) 1995 — 2011: 1000 * slope
= 5.11 / year (China kicks in?)
The conclusion is that the
time constant of the planet is 5 ± 1 years and its heat capacity is 16.7 ± 7 W • yr / (dec C • m ^ 2), so climate sensitivity is 5/16.7
= 0.3 deg C / (W / m ^ 2).
Here, trivially, dT / dF
= f (x, t) e.g it varies with location and
time and is neither unique nor
constant.
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Relaxing the assumption that benefits remain
constant over
time and assuming that the effect diminishes to zero by the end of the
time period considered results in an estimated cost per QALY of # 56 885 for the 5 - year duration (probability cost - effective at # 20 000
= 30 %) and # 29 664 for the 10 - year
time horizon (probability at the # 20 000 threshold
= 44 %; table 8).