An example was Climate Dialogue, which published contributions from scientists with differing views on topics such as
climate sensitivity.
Some studies of past climate, however, point to
climate sensitivities of 6 °C or more.
The Tijuana River National Estuarine Research Reserve in California is one of four estuaries that experiences a high level of
climate sensitivity.
Researchers determined the extent of relative
climate sensitivity in the reserves by looking at five factors: social, biophysical, and ecological sensitivity, and exposure to temperature change and sea level rise.
«The research shows that
climate sensitivity was higher during the past global, warm climate than in the current climate.
Climate sensitivity is currently around 3 degrees.
In 2008, the Forum on Physics and Society (FPS), a newsletter produced by the American Physics Society, published an article entitled «
Climate sensitivity reconsidered ``.
Climate sensitivity depends on a number of properties of the earth's climate system, such as the composition of clouds and cloud cover.
This effect, called
climate sensitivity, is usually defined as the warming caused by the doubling of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The authors found that current conservation prioritizations do not correspond to their projected estimates of
climate sensitivities.
From this, they could estimate
the climate sensitivity and the result was that where it was about 4.5 degrees C before the PETM, the temperature rose to about 5.1 degrees during the PETM.
Let us hope that a lower
climate sensitivity of 2.5 degrees C turns out to be correct.
The conclusion that limiting CO2 below 450 ppm will prevent warming beyond two degrees C is based on a conservative definition of
climate sensitivity that considers only the so - called fast feedbacks in the climate system, such as changes in clouds, water vapor and melting sea ice.
Scientists call this responsiveness «equilibrium
climate sensitivity» (ECS).
A group of scientists from a cross-section of scientific institutions, including Ramaswamy and Columbia University Earth Institute's James Hansen, published a paper earlier this summer arguing for a broader
climate sensitivity metric.
The upper limit of the range remains the same in both reports — 4.5 C (8.1 F)-- he noted, while most mainstream scientists put their «best guess» for
climate sensitivity somewhere in the middle of the range, between 2.5 and 3.5 C.
At the same time, new studies of
climate sensitivity — the amount of warming expected for a doubling of carbon dioxide levels from 0.03 to 0.06 percent in the atmosphere — have suggested that most models are too sensitive.
«And what is clear is that there is a strong
climate sensitivity in the ocean nitrogen cycle.»
A leaked draft copy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report (AR5) surfaced earlier this summer and triggered a small tempest among climate bloggers, scientists and skeptics over revelations that a key metric, called the «Equilibrium
Climate Sensitivity» (ECS), had been revised downward.
Using information from pre-historic climate archives, Zeebe calculated how slow climate feedbacks (land ice, vegetation, etc.) and
climate sensitivity may evolve over time.
Zeebe uses past climate episodes as analogs for the future, which suggest that so - called slow climate «feedbacks» can boost
climate sensitivity and amplify warming.
A standard value for present - day
climate sensitivity is about 3 °C per doubling of atmospheric CO2.
But according to Zeebe,
climate sensitivity could change over time.
[Drew T. Shindell, Inhomogeneous forcing and transient
climate sensitivity] That means climate change with an increase of more than a degree Celsius compared with the last century is very likely already.
But there is no consensus on
this climate sensitivity.
The model had a fairly high
climate sensitivity to begin with, predicting a warming of 5.15 °C.
«We think
climate sensitivity will be greater in 2100 than it was in 2000,» says Russell.
It tries to turn a major factor in the uncertainty in
climate sensitivity estimates — the behavior of clouds — into a strength.
The models that were least accurate also had the lowest
climate sensitivity baked in, the scientists said.
Karen Shell, an atmospheric scientist at Oregon State University, called the new findings «one piece of
the climate sensitivity puzzle.»
That uncertainty is represented in the latest crop of global climate models, which assume
a climate sensitivity of anywhere from about 3 to 8 degrees F.
Yet even with those caveats, Shell praised the approach laid out in the new research as a «simple diagnostic... [and] an encouraging step that links observations to
climate sensitivity.»
When the scientists compared the output of climate models with a decade of satellite measurements of relative humidity, they found that the models that best reproduced observed conditions were built on the premise that
climate sensitivity is relatively high — 7 degrees F or more.
«This is one of several recent studies that provide sobering evidence that earth's
climate sensitivity may lie in the upper end of the current uncertainty range,» Mann said in an email.
Isaac Held, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate scientist, said he agreed with the researchers about the «the importance of getting the ice - liquid ratio in mixed - phase clouds right,» but he doesn't agree that global climate models generally underestimate
climate sensitivity.
The group hopes other scientists will conduct similar experiments using different models to help hone in on a more reliable measure of
climate sensitivity.
Based on past observations, Held, who was not involved with the study, said
the climate sensitivity of 5 °C or more shown by the new research may be implausible.
Michael Mann, a meteorology professor at Penn State who was not involved with the study, said it's «speculative» but «plausible» that global climate models have been underestimating
climate sensitivity by assuming too much cloud glaciation.
One of climate science's great quests is to project how much earth warms when carbon dioxide concentrations double — something known as
climate sensitivity.
On previous estimates of
the climate sensitivity, that is far too late.
«If we are lucky and
the climate sensitivity is at the low end, and we have a strong agreement in 2015, then I think we stand a chance to limit climate change to 2 °C,» says Corinne Le Quéré of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Norwich, UK.
This new research takes away the lower end of
climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3 °C to 5 °C with a doubling of carbon dioxide.»
When Otto calculated
the climate sensitivity from his data, he found it was about 2 °C — with a range of 0.9 to 5 °C — well below the IPCC's best estimate of 3 °C.
«When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of
climate sensitivity is far higher.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of
climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
Scientists have revealed the impact of clouds on
climate sensitivity.
The findings, which have been published in Nature, also show how
climate sensitivity can vary over the long term.
By studying the relationship between CO2 levels and climate change during a warmer period in Earth's history, the scientists have been able to estimate how the climate will respond to increasing levels of carbon dioxide, a parameter known as «
climate sensitivity».
«Our estimates of
climate sensitivity lie well within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 ºC increase per CO2 doubling summarised in the latest IPCC report.
The research team also assessed whether
climate sensitivity was different in warmer times, like the Pliocene, than in colder times, like the glacial cycles of the last 800,000 years.