Sentences with phrase «.5 model scenario»

«This work was a foundational reference case for the recently released RCP4.5 model scenario, one of four scenarios that will be used by modeling groups around the globe to make realistic projections of future climate change,» said Dr. Steven J. Smith, scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland, and lead research author.

Not exact matches

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

Climate change projections were based on an ensemble of four General Circulation Models (UKMO HadCM3, MPIM ECHAM5, CSIRO MK3.5 and GFDL CM2.1), downscaled to 10 minutes [32], considering three emissions scenarios (B2, A1B and A2) for 1975 (mean 1961 — 1990), 2050 (mean 2041 — 2060) and 2090 (mean 2081 — 2100).

His latest attempts at model / obs comparisons, reflected in the Fox article, do not flag which emissions scenario he is using at all, but I assume it is still RCP8.5.

For the «business - as - usual» scenario RCP8.5, the model - mean changes in 2090s (compared to 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 °C, − 0.33 pH unit, − 3.45 % and − 8.6 %, respectively.

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

MODEL: 4.2 C / century, (through 2100), IPCC5 (RCP8.5) MODEL: 4.0 C / century, (through 2100), IPCC4 «High Scenario» MODEL: 3.2 C / century (since 1979), Hansen A MODEL: 2.8 C / century (since 1979), Hansen B MODEL: 2.0 C / century, («next few decades»), IPCC4 MODEL: 1.9 C / century (since 1979), Hansen C MODEL: 1.8 C / century, (through 2100), IPCC4 «Low Scenario» ---------------------------------------------- Observed: 1.6 C / century (since 1979), NASA GISS Observed: 1.5 C / century (since 1979), NCDC Observed: 1.4 C / century (since 1979), UAH MSU LT Observed: 1.3 C / century (since 1979), RSS MSU LT Observed: 1.3 C / century (since 1979), RATPAC - B 850 millibars Observed: 1.2 C / century (since 1979), RATPAC - B 500 millibars MODEL: 1.0 C / century, (through 2100), IPCC5 (RCP2.6) Observed: 1.0 C / century, (since 1979), RATPAC - B 300 millibars Observed: 0.8 C / century (since 1979), RSS MSU MT Observed: 0.5 C / century (since 1979), UAH MSU MT

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

Total radiative forcing (W m − 2) of the GCAM reference and RCP4.5 scenarios over the model simulation period

In the remainder of this paper we will discuss the modeling environment employed to develop RCP4.5 (the Global Change Assessment Model; GCAM), from the original MiniCAM Level 2 scenario (Clarke et al. 2007).

Like the 2 % C warming limit, it seems plucked from the ether without adequate modeling — perhaps spurred by fears of the horrific but unlikely RCP8.5 nightmare scenario.

RCP4.5 is based on the MiniCAM Level 2 stabilization scenario reported in Clarke et al. (2007) with additional detail on the non-CO2 and pollution control assumptions documented by Smith and Wigley (2006), and incorporating updated land use modeling and terrestrial carbon emissions pricing assumptions as reported in Wise et al. (2009a, b).

For the study, the researchers used a set of 10 global climate models to simulate future changes in wind power under a high future emissions scenario (known as RCP8.5) and a moderate emissions scenario (known as RCP4.5).

The mean high temperature projections for 2050 and 2100 were derived from a suite of 28 climate models (CMIP5 / Oak Ridge National Laboratory) under IPCC emissions scenario RCP8.5, averaged over November 22 - 28 for 2030 - 2049 and 2080 - 2099, respectively.»

Based on some calculations I've done the following exponential decay model will produce a.995 R ^ 2 statistic of the CMIP5 multi-model mean RCP4.5 scenario over the period 1900 - 2100:

Not even worst case scenario UN IPCC RCP8.5 climate models project such doom.

Compared to the existing IPCC models, terrestrial carbon cycle processes could provide an additional net feedback of 400 GtC or more over this century following the RCP8.5 scenario.

Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

A recent study in Nature Geoscience by Will Wieder and three colleagues performed modelling to determine what effect limiting N and P supplies would have on plant growth in a RCP8.5 scenario.

«Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario...»

Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario (see Section 12.4.6.1), some show large changes in the near term as well.

«CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 10 ^ 6 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario... «Assume a 15 km2 million max and 3 km2 million min.

We use all available models that conducted simulations for the period 2016 — 2065 under the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario.

We make use of a 40 - member ensemble of climate change simulations under historical and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios for the period 1920 — 2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1; Hurrell et al. 2013).

In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2 - R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

The main result of the paper, as highlighted in the abstract, is that for the highest - emissions RCP8.5 scenario predicted warming circa 2090 [7] is about 15 % higher than the raw multimodel mean, and has a spread only about two - thirds as large as that for the model - ensemble.

Another near - term feedback is the reduction ocean - spray DMS aerosols that will contribute.2 -.4 C additional warming and the recent model results of decreased low - altitude cloud cover under warming scenarios (additional.2 -.5)

Method: We used consistent climate — air - quality — health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile - de-France) to assess future (2030 — 2050) health impacts of ozone and PM2.5 under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR).

Bottom panels show the present - day, annually averaged sensible heat (c) and evaporation (d) fluxes poleward of 60N for a 16 - member CMIP5 climate model ensemble using the RCP8.5 scenario.

While two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the AMOC under RCP8.5 (the scenario with the largest amount of warming), none exhibited an abrupt change of the AMOC.

In the case of the CMIP5 models, Weaver et al. (2012) showed that the behavior of the AMOC was similar over the 21st century under four very different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6; RCP4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP8.5 — these Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] are detailed in Moss et al., 2010).

In their study, Dim Coumou, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and Alexander Robinson, from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, used state - of - the - art climate models to project changes in the trend of heat extremes under two future warming scenarios — RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 — throughout the 21st century.

The reference scenario accounts the UN's medium fertility population projections, historical GDP per capita rates that converge over time to be consistent with other integrated assessment models, and GHG per capita projections for each gas that reflect trends over the last decade for CO2 and follow RCP8.5 for the non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

Only two models simulated an AMOC collapse, and only at the tail end of the most extreme scenario (RCP8.5, which quite frankly gives me a stomachache).

The future ocean scenario of approximately 850 µatm pCO2 and +4.0 °C was based on the RCP8.5 model [32].

Our 2015 study examines the impact of 21st - century projected climate changes (CMIP5, RCP4.5 scenario) on a number of tropical cyclone metrics, using the GFDL hurricane model to downscale storms in all basins from one of the lower resolution global atmospheric models mentioned above.

Change in land carbon storage projections from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

Change in net primary productivity (plant growth) projections from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

In a new study published in the Journal of Climate, the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM - LENS) of simulations is used to explore how various characteristics of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation (zonal flow, synoptic blockings, jet stream meanders) evolve along the course of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario of anthropogenic emissions.

Lower map shows model projections of the change in storage by 2100 as a result of nitrogen and phosphorus limits, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).