Sentences with phrase «16thcentury megadrought»

According to the researchers, the megadroughts of 2005, 2010 and 2015 - 16 could well represent the first signs that this tipping point is about to be reached.

A study published in February suggests that a megadrought lasting at least 35 years is 60 to 80 percent likely to occur in the Southwest or central Plains after 2050.

In previous research, Overpeck and other colleagues showed current climate models simulated 20th - century conditions well, but the models can not simulate the 20 - to 60 - year megadroughts known to have occurred in the past.

In the Southwest, paleoclimate records tell us that we have seen tremendous droughts — megadroughts — in the past.

Under a «business - as - usual» emissions scenario, they add, there's an 80 % likelihood that at least one decades - long megadrought will hit the regions between 2050 and 2100.

Such collaboration is especially important, Young said, given climate models for the area, which predict rising temperatures, «megadroughts,» and brief, severe floods.

All of the droughts recorded dwarf our 20th century megadrought, which we fondly call the Dust Bowl, quickly cutting our dry and wet spells down to size.

Melting icecaps, mass flooding, megadroughts and erratic weather are no laughing matter.

Cvijanovic and her colleagues did not use their work to investigate California's recent megadrought, but she says it is «consistent» with the scenario in her paper.

Scientists warn that climate change could deliver «megadroughts» to the West, the likes of which haven't been experienced in more than a millenium.

Other features of the record are also redated, such as the East African megadroughts (24), which must have terminated at least 10 ka earlier than the previous estimate of 75 ka B.P. Clearly, existing comparisons of the Lake Malawi paleoclimate data to other regional and global records (24, 25, 32) will need to be revised in the light of these findings.

12:45 - 13:00 Sahel megadrought during Heinrich Stadial 1: Evidence for a three - phase evolution of the low - andmid - level West African wind system Ilham Bouimetarhan, Matthias Prange, Enno Schefuß, Lydie Dupont, Jörg Lippold, Stefan Mulitza, Karin Zonneveld

Better forecasts could help water managers, farmers and other industries in the West that rely on water, especially with projections for megadrought looming for the region by mid-century.

Sahel megadrought during Heinrich Stadial 1: Evidence for a three - phase evolution of the low - and mid-level West African wind system Ilham Bouimetarhan, Matthias Prange, Enno Schefuss, Lydie Dupont, Jörg Lippold, Stefan Mulitza, Karin Zonneveld

Aug. 26, 2016 — Paleoclimatic cave study in California is designed to identify the factors that made megadroughts commonplace in the western U.S. from 5,000 to 8,000 years ago.

They estimated that the most recent megadrought happened at the end of the 16th century.

This makes the risk of megadrought increases to 99 percent.

He continued that these megadroughts have happened here before, and they can happen again.

Megadrought could stretch from San Francisco Boulder, Colorado and until the Gulf of California by 2100, according to the scientists.

And just last year, climatologist Jonathan Overpeck warned that humanity is at danger of forcing «abrupt shifts to drier conditions, including possible decadal megadrought.»

As to the example of the megadrought in the 1600s, I know little about this, but can you be so certain this was the result of chaos and not a change in forcings, or a non-chaotic combination of a change in forcings timed with a cyclical ENSO - like event?

Megadroughts are what Cornell University scientist Toby Ault calls the «great white sharks of climate: powerful, dangerous and hard to detect before it's too late.

You can learn about the sobering findings extracted from Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana (think about 100 - year megadroughts) here:

«When considering the West as a whole, we are currently in the midst of a historically relevant megadrought,» said Williams, a professor at the Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New York.

Some recent research, including analysis of climate models and past records by Richard Seager at the Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, projects that the buildup of greenhouse gases is pushing the region into a megadrought akin to epic dry spells of the past.

Natural (non-human-induced) variability is still likely the dominant cause of today's droughts, and clearly was for megadroughts evidenced in the paleoclimate record.

During the last megadrought, this area was active sand dunes, subject to movement of dunes over 10m high.

Updates in brackets You don't know you're in a megadrought until you're many years, if not decades, into one.

2) Rapid warming over next decade, as recent Nature and Science article suggests is quite possible (posts here and here) 3) Continued (unexpected) surge in methane 4) A megadrought hitting the SW comparable to what has hit southern Australia.

The discussion in that post spilled into the American West and includes valuable input on various realities, one being that — in both southern Africa and the southwestern United States — the factors triggering megadroughts remain unclear, while rising greenhouse gas concentrations could well tip the balance toward such an outcome.

Finally, with drought and climate change in mind, Keith Kloor conducted an invaluable review of studies of the normal nature of American megadrought last month.

Still, human - caused growth in greenhouse gases is expected to become a new driver of things that have been seen in the distant past as century - long megadroughts, an alarming future by most any measure.

They warn of inevitable hard knocks to come, even as ever more people crowd into harm's way, whether in the instant pop - up shanty towns of cities sitting on unstable faults or the spreading sprawl of the Southwest, where megadrought may have been the norm, and 20th - century moisture the anomaly.

Of course, this is speculation, but we have to be concerned that megadroughts have occurred in the past, and we're not fully sure why.

Lake mud and the ancient trees provided evidence of at least six «megadroughts» in West Africa in the last 3,000 years.

But there is the prospect of tussles between countries exposed to coastal retreats or megadroughts.

Recent research showed that climate change will increase the risk of multidecadal «megadrought» in the West dramatically.

Findings strongly hint at prospect of megadrought if global warming continues.

They are called megadroughts or «stiner droughts».

There is record of megadroughts in the region.

«It is rare to see all signs pointing so unwaveringly toward the same result, in this case a highly elevated risk of future megadroughts in the United States.»

However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase along current trajectories throughout the 21st century, there is an 80 percent likelihood of a decades - long megadrought in the Southwest and Central Plains between the years 2050 and 2099.

According to Cook, the current likelihood of a megadrought, a drought lasting more than three decades, is 12 percent.

When these past megadroughts are compared side - by - side with computer model projections of the 21st century, both the moderate and business - as - usual emissions scenarios are drier, and the risk of droughts lasting 30 years or longer increases significantly.

The scientists were interested in megadroughts that took place between 1100 and 1300 in North America.

As evidenced by tree - ring studies, a megadrought occurred during the 1150s along the Colorado River.

By examining tree rings and other physical clues, previous research had identified a period of time called Medieval Climate Anomaly (A.D. 1100 - 1300) when megadroughts were more common.

The role of climate change in causing extreme heat waves, drastic rainfall, negative impacts on human health and threatened food security have received more attention recently than megadrought.

«For the southwestern U.S., I'm not optimistic about avoiding real megadroughts,» said Toby Ault, Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and lead author of the paper.

A megadrought is a natural hazard, but it unfolds slowly — over a period of decades,» said Ault.