Karlville extends an invitation to all Global Pouch Forum attendees to participate in its Miami Headquarters Facility Tour, held prior to the start of the Forum on June 14, as part of the conference's
20th year activities agenda.
Not exact matches
A full review of this
year's
activities at MDRS will be presented at the
20th Annual International Mars Society Convention, scheduled for September 7 - 10, 2017 at University of California Irvine.
Whether it was William Peter Hamilton observing the trading
activity of the 19th century, or Richard Russell who has studied the market's real - time price and volume action for more than 50
years, or Russell Napier who took the time for an in - depth review of the 4 greatest buying opportunities in the
20th century, each came to a similar conclusion: to confirm a change in market conditons, watch trading volume closely.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the past 150
years (e.g., variability of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar
activity induced changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the global warming experienced during the
20th century, with the possible exception of the last two decades.
The second half of the
20th century saw solar
activity at record highs historically (and for «several thousand
years», according to Solanki 2004).
So if the second half of the
20th century had the highest average absolute levels of solar
activity for «several thousand
years» (Solanki) and at least 350 +
years (Lean), then this could well have been a significant cause of late
20th century warming (building in all the «time lags» one might envision), despite the fact that the absolute level of solar
activity was declining over this period.
You are right that solar
activity has slowed down after reaching the highest level «in several thousand
years» in the late
20th century (Solanki 2004).
If you could assume we have the same as average solar and volcanic
activity of the
20th Century, would tend to think we will get generally the same rise in temperature as we had in the last 100
years.
Many solar studies tell us that roughly half of the
20th century warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years), with much of this occurring in the first half of the century.
I.e. solar
activity was high in most of the
20th centiry and then peaked in about 1985, together with a 20 - 30
year heat lag (since it remained high until 1996 as well), and oceans take a few decades to equilbrate, (the same as summer takes about 6 weeks to reach maximum temperature after the summer solstice, and every day it takes a few hours after noon to reach maximum temperature), so the earth has taken a few decades to reach maximum temperature after the long high in solar
activity during the
20th century, and will now go down in temperature over the next few decades, with now both a negative PDO, and reduced solar
activity.
However, there are several solar studies out there, which suggest that around 50 % of observed past warming (rather than only 7 %, as assumed by IPCC) can be attributed to the unusually high level of
20th century solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years).
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and
20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar
activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400
years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
As the sun has not had very different level of
activity in the
20th century than in the previous two centuries [and especially since
activity of all kinds at the moment is on par what it was 100
years ago and 200
years ago], it is hard to ascribe variations in climate [if you accept there have been any] to solar variations, TSI or not.
published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and
20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar
activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400
years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
Leif Svalgaard's argument, as I understand it, is that with the most recent and reliable reconstructions of the history of solar
activity, temperature change and solar
activity are almost perfectly uncorrelated over a time span of 300
years, and the association apparent in Alec Rawls» graph only appears in the
20th century.
Another point to note is that solar
activity in the first 50
years of the
20th century was significantly lower than the last 50
years, this implies that the long term behavior should be an increase in the global temperature.
On the instrumental record is high La Niña
activity from the start — and for centuries beforehand — transitioning to a 1000
year high in El Niño
activity in the
20th century — and with the ever present 20 - 30
year upwelling regimes.
The sun was at its highest
activity state in 10,000
years during the later half of the
20th century.
As for solar
activity, it has decreased in the second half of the
20th century after the 1957 — 1958 maximum, and it is low in recent
years.
``... New paper: Solar
activity at end of
20th century was the highest in 1200
years.»
Solar
activity peaked in the
20th century in a thousand
year high.
There are 1000
year peaks in the
20th century in temperature, solar
activity and El Niño frequency that imply that longer long cooling is possible.
We find several studies by solar scientists, which all conclude that around 50 % of the
20th century warming (versus only 7 %, as assumed by IPCC) can be attributed to the unusually high level of solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years).
There have been several independent studies showing that around half of the observed warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of solar
activity in the
20th century (highest in several thousand
years), with a large part of this warming occurring in the first half of the century.
Of course, if one accepts the conclusions of several solar studies that around 50 % (rather than 7 %) of the
20th century warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years)-- most of which occurred in the first half of the century — then the 2xCO2 impact would only be ~ 0.8 C.
We had the warm ENSO period of the 1980s / 1990s (which led to the all - time record warm
year 1998), an observed decrease in late
20th C cloud cover (and albedo), the highest solar
activity for several thousand
years, etc..
It has attributed less than 7 % of all climate forcing since pre-industrial days to «natural forcing components» (i.e. solar), conceding that its» level of scientific understanding» of» natural forcing components» (i.e. solar) is» low», whereas there are many independent studies, which attribute 50 % of the warming observed over the
20th century to the unusually high level of solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years).
A paper by Usoskin comes to a solar time lag using proxies over the last 1000
years or so, of about 20
years, which would lower the effect of c02 even further during the late
20th century, after the increase in solar
activity from 1750 to about 1950 +.
That is observed during the 11/22
year solar cycle, but also plays a role in the overall
activity between the long term minima and maxima (Maunder Minimum, last halve
20th century maximum).
The
20th century saw a 1000
year high in El Nino
activity.
[1] But a 2009 analysis of data «on the sun's output in the last 25
years of the
20th century has firmly put the notion to rest.The data shows that even though the sun's
activity has been decreasing since 1985, global temperatures have continued to rise at an accelerating rate.»
The many solar studies I cited simply used empirical data going back to pre-industrial cold periods coinciding with periods of low solar
activity in order to estimate the impact of the unusually high level of
20th century solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years).
The solar
activity in the
20th century was the highest in several thousand
years, according to several solar studies, which attribute half of the observed
20th century warming to this factor (Shapiro et al. 2011, Scafetta + West 2006, Solanki et al. 2004, Shaviv + Veizer 2003, Lockwood + Stamper 1999, Geerts + Linacre 1997, Gerard + Hauglustaine 1991).
-- I find several solar studies, which show that roughly half of the observed
20th century warming can be attributed to the unusually high level of
20th century solar
activity (highest in several thousand
years, it is reported).