The new study, however, was aimed at marshalling the expertise of 17 other climate and policy experts from the UK, Australia, France, Sweden and Switzerland as well as the US, to outline the dangerous consequences of sticking to
the 2C warming target endorsed by the United Nations and world leaders.
«Experts reject Bjørn Lomborg's view on
2C warming target,» The Guardian, May 20, 2017.
«It's just bullshit for them to say: «We'll have
a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.»
Regarding
the 2C warming target that is much discussed as being needed to avoid «dangerous warming».
Not exact matches
Under the new Paris Agreement on climate change, nearly 200 countries decided to
target a
warming limit well below
2C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 C.
- Reuters: Of world's 20 leading economies, Italy, Brazil, France and Germany are closest to meeting international
targets to keep global
warming below
2C.
National governments need to promise greater emissions cuts and enact policies to keep global
warming to the more ambitious
target of 1.5 C or at most
2C, which they set as the goal of the Paris climate agreement.
This ends up changing estimates of cumulative carbon emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the large uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions about remaining carbon budgets associated with staying within the
2C or 1.5 C
warming targets.
This differs from the commonly used term «carbon budget», referring to how much emissions are left to meet a climate
target, such as avoiding
2C warming.
Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting
warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate
Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and
2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate
target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global
warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting
warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457
Lomborg was quoted in a piece titled, «Climate change real, deadly says David Attenborough,» in which Lomborg says that «the UN should focus on more cost - effective environmental policies,» and increase their global
target for limiting
warming from
2C to 3C: [15]
The oil producing giant last night blocked efforts to include references in the Paris deal to a UN report that says it would be better to limit global
warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels rather than the current
2C target.
He said his study showed the
2C target set in Paris was «still just about achievable» but limiting
warming to 1.5 C in the long term could only be achieved by «overshooting» and then somehow reducing the temperature using futuristic technology, such as artificial trees which suck CO2 out of the atmosphere.
First, physical risk: in order to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change, scientists have shown that we must limit global
warming to
2C, a
target now adopted unanimously by governments through the landmark Paris Agreement on climate.
The joint communique from the leaders of Japan, Germany, the US, UK, Canada, Italy and France reaffirms their commitment to the internationally agreed
target of limiting
warming to less than
2C above pre-industrial levels.
At the rate that the world is burning coal, gas and oil, even rapid adoption of low carbon technologies might not keep
warming within 1.5 C, while the
2C target, also included in the agreement, looks even further out of reach.
The essential technical point is that the Copenhagen demand for real ambition which crystallized as «1.5 to stay alive» was indeed a call for a 350 ppm concentration
target, which has about a 50/50 chance of holding the
warming below 1.5 C (or returning it below that level if it peaks higher), and an 85 % chance of keeping it below
2C.
Carbon budget (vertical axis) and probability of keeping below
target (horizontal axis) for
2C (blue line), 2.5 C (green line) and 3C (red line) of
warming.
«Fossil fuel emissions of 1,000 gigaton, sometimes associated with a
2C global
warming target, would be expected to cause large climate change with disastrous consequences.
The limit of
2C of global
warming agreed by the world's governments is a «dangerous
target», «foolhardy» and will not avoid the most disastrous consequences of climate change, new research from a panel of eminent climate scientists warned on Tuesday.