If your plot of A2 is «near - identical» to your graph, why doesn't
the A2 model input (or «central tendency,» if you like) appear within your envelope?
The argument is threefold: 1) The actual observed CO2 is exceedingly close to the real IPCC
A2 model input.
The first thing to notice here is how badly Monckton's central tendency fits the actual
A2 model input everywhere in between the endpoints.
Now consider Figure 4, where I have plotted
the A2 model input (black line in Fig. 3), along with the outer bounds of the projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations (outer red lines in Fig. 3).
I went to the trouble of fitting a linear trend line to
the A2 model input line from 2002 - 2009 and obtained a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.99967.
It is impossible to distinguish a linear trend from an exponential trend like the one used for
the A2 model input over such a short time period.
Furthermore, the lower bound of Monckton's Fantasy Projections also overestimates
the A2 model input before about the year 2030.
Not exact matches
Furthermore, look at the graph in Fig. 5, and note that the solid black line representing the
A2 climate
model input looks quite linear over that time period, but looks exponential over the longer timeframe in Fig. 4.