Sentences with phrase «amo warm phase»

NOAA have been saying for a while that AMO warm phase leads to droughts / heatwaves in the Mid West and South West.

Recent research suggests that an AMO warm phase has been in effect since the mid-1990s, which has caused changes in rainfall in the southeastern US, and resulted in twice as many tropical storms becoming hurricanes than during cool phases.

Not exact matches

The warm phase of the AMO returned.

Scenario 2: Above - normal season if both La Niña and the conditions associated with the high - activity phase and warm AMO develop.

The AMO, in which temperatures over a large swath of the northern Atlantic Ocean fluctuate between warm and cold phases on a 50 - to 70 - year cycle, is one example.

Warm phases of the AMO are linked to increased rainfall in the Sahel, while the opposite is true for the cold phase.

According to their observations, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic can be up to 1.5 °C warmer in the Gulf Stream region during the positive phase of the AMO compared to the negative, colder phase.

When the AMO is in its positive phase and the sea surface temperatures are warmer, the study has shown that the main effect in winter is to promote the negative phase of the NAO which leads to «blocking» episodes over the North Atlantic sector, allowing cold weather systems to exist over the eastern US and Europe.

5) Finally, we must remember that temperatures since 2000 have been artificially raised by the recent record El Nino, and the ongoing warm phase of the AMO.

Most of flood periods coincided with the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

A warm AMO phase leads to an atmospheric warming limited to the lower troposphere in summer, while it leads to a negative phase of the NAO in winter.

Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Climate patterns associated with the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

If you are trying to attribute warming over a short period, e.g. since 1980, detection requires that you explicitly consider the phasing of multidecadal natural internal variability during that period (e.g. AMO, PDO), not just the spectra over a long time period.

The AWP multidecadal variability coincides with the signal of the AMO; that is, the warm (cool) phases of the AMO are characterized by repeated large (small) AWPs.

The model simulation quite clearly indicates that any natural «AMO» surface warming of the tropical Atlantic should be in phase with a strengthening, not a weakening, of the THC.

Attribution arguments of late 20th century warming have failed to pass the detection threshold which requires accounting for the phasing of the AMO and PDO.

The observed warming is likely the result of a combined effect: data strongly suggest that the AMO has been in a warming phase for the past two or three decades, and we also know that at the same time anthropogenic global warming is ongoing.

That sudden temperature rise, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, corresponds not to aerosol effects but the return of the warming phase of the AMO, a cycle that began in the Southern hemisphere in the 50s.

In 1995, after a relatively quiet period in the Atlantic, the AMO flipped to the warm phase.

Here this is expressed with reference to the AMO, which is due a warm phase until the next sunspot maximum.

So we should expect another 20 - 40 years of warm phase AMO, which means droughts in USA Mid - and South - West, more frequent North Atlantic hurricanes, more rain in the Sahel and possibly in India too.

Wang & Zhang (2013, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00721.1): «Both observations and most of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models also show that the warm (cold) phase of the AMO is associated with a surface warming (cooling) and a subsurface cooling (warming) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA).

The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming.

It is further shown that the warm phase of the AMO corresponds to a strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a weakening of the Atlantic subtropical cell (STC), which both induce an anomalous northward current in the TNA subsurface ocean.

Well it turns out that both the PDO and the AMO were in + ve (warm) phases.....

Because the mean meridional temperature gradient of the subsurface ocean is positive because of the temperature dome around 9 ° N, the advection by the anomalous northward current cools the TNA subsurface ocean during the warm phase of the AMO.

The AMO is still in the warm phase but heading down to the cool phase.

In short, Swanson and Tsonis hypothesized that when various natural oceanic cycles (PDO, AMO, etc.) synchronize (i.e. in their positive or negative phases), they can cause a short - term warming or cooling which could be described as a «climate regime shift.»

The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO.

We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases.

The warm AMO phase drives Arctic warming and drying of the Great Plains, which is where U.S. drought is now shifting to, but a warm AMO phase has nothing to do with AGW.

The present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until the end of the next decade, but with a negative tendency.

The most recent decade has the highest SSTs on record in the tropical North Atlantic (Figure 3.33), apparently as part of global warming and a favourable phase of the AMO.

Over the instrumental period (since the 1850s), North Atlantic SSTs show a 65 to 75 year variation (0.4 °C range), with a warm phase during 1930 to 1960 and cool phases during 1905 to 1925 and 1970 to 1990 (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994), and this feature has been termed the AMO (Kerr, 2000), as shown in Figure 3.33.

Evidence (e.g., Enfield et al., 2001; Knight et al., 2005) of a warm phase in the AMO from 1870 to 1900 is revealed as an artefact of the de-trending used (Trenberth and Shea, 2006).

CO2 forcing could possibly be acting through the PDO, AMO and SOI, putting them in warm phases simultaneously and more frequently.

Interestingly, the paper also estimates that only about two - thirds of the post-1975 global warming is due to anthropogenic effects, with the other one - third being due to the positive phase of the AMO.

But, you're making the same claim that this is the cause of the pause, when it's more likely that a positive AMO and PDO both simultaneously warmed the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 20th century, the History of the late 30's had the same high temps (and melted Arctic), which were followed by cold PDO phase.

«The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation].»

The record El Nino's and the warm phases of the PDO and AMO have more to do with global warming than infinitesimal incremental increases in a minute trace gas.

The next rising phase of AMO (7, 8, 26, 28) led to the often cited early 20th - century warming in the global mean (1910 — 1940) of 0.4 °C (Fig. 2), but it happened to occur during a period of increasing mean solar irradiance, leading some to attribute it, incorrectly, to solar forcing (42).

Wu et al. (7, 8) pointed out the importance of this mode in the modern global temperature record with a period of 65 y: If it is interpreted as natural and related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)(9 ⇓ ⇓ — 12), then the trend attributed to anthropogenic warming should be significantly reduced after ∼ 1980, when the AMO was in a rising phase.

So NOAA's official thinking appears to be that AMO is going through a warmer phase that will last 10 to 20 years (a forecast as vague as the graph), I guess I can see that by averaging out anomalous spikes, but this AMO is not at all like ENSO, either ongoing or dormant, brings to mind external influences giving that 1 degree C fluctuation.

Also, his SST data (see our Fig. 2 above) go back to 1930, thus covering the whole previous warm phase of the AMO.

They include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that exhibited a warm phase from 1930 - 1965, but with a transient drop between 1945 and 1948, a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that shifted from warm to cold between 1942 and 1950, and a series of El Nino conditions from 1939 through 1942.

During that 20 - year window, though, solar activity, the PDO and the AMO were also all peaking or in their warm phases.

I thank the warm phase of the AMO, but know that is going to change in the next few years.

Note, the AMO switched to the warm phase in 1995, by most reckonings.

Well done, that's because there isn't a causal link there, it's a correlation with a profound phase reversal nicely in sync with the AMO transitions to and from the cold and warm modes.