1998 Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, et al., «Timing of
Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Younger Dryas Interval from Thermally Fractionated Gases in Polar Ice.»
«Timing of
Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Younger Dryas Interval from Thermally Fractionated Gases in Polar Ice.»
Andy — As far back as Severinghaus et al (Timing of
abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas interval from thermally fractionated gases in polar ice, 1998, Nature), the ice - core data showed clearly that the abrupt climate changes (end of the Younger Dryas in that case) were faster than the methane changes.
Not exact matches
But, says Axel Timmermann, a professor of oceanography
at the University of Hawaii
at Manoa, «None of these snapshots were able to capture
abrupt climate change and transition,» thereby making them less useful for predicting coming sudden shifts.
By making such an
abrupt budget
change, NASA will mothball or abandon half - built (in some cases, fully built) hardware, lose expertise developed
at great effort, and leave gaps in data coverage, notably of the earth's
climate.
Project leader Enno Schefuß from the MARUM — Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
at the University of Bremen, Germany, adds: «The project was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in the priority programme «Integrated Analysis of Interglacial
Climate Dynamics (INTERDYNAMIC)» with the aim to identify potential mechanisms triggering
abrupt changes under current climatic conditions.
Our study suggests that
at medium sea levels, powerful forces, such as the dramatic acceleration of polar ice cap melting, are not necessary to create
abrupt climate shifts and temperature
changes.»
The results suggested that signals that were indicative of
abrupt climate change tended to propagate first
at DF and later
at EDC.
On p. 336: 271
Abrupt change from wet to dry in the Sahara (
at least, as measured by offshore dust) as the summer sun gradually
changes: Peter B. deMenocal, J. Ortiz, T. Guilderson, J. Adkins, M. Sarnthein, L. Baker, and M. Yarusinsky, «
Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: Rapid
climate responses to gradual insolation forcing,» Quaternary Science Review 19: 347 - 361 (2000).
Unlike the case of the D - O events and Younger Dryas which tell us something about what
abrupt change is like in cold
climates, we have no analogous
climates we can look
at to see what
abrupt changes might be like in a hothouse world.
For the glacial period, comparisons to the Hulu Cave chronology demonstrated that WD2014 had an accuracy of better than 1 % of the age
at three
abrupt climate change events between 27 and 31ka.
At the University of Ottawa he is working on his PHD with a thesis about
abrupt climate change.
What really concerns me is that I've read a lot about
climate models not being able to replicate the magnitude of
abrupt regional temperature
changes in the past, and Raypierre has said here that he fears that past
climate records point towards some yet unknown positive feedback which might amplify warming
at the northern latitudes.
Many paleoclimate archives document
climate changes that happened
at rates considerably exceeding the average rate of
change for longer - term averaging periods prior and after this
change... A variety of mechanisms have been suggested to explain the emergence of such
abrupt climate changes (see Section 12.5.5).
In August, 2006, I gave a power - point - presentation
at the Veterans For Peace National Convention titled, «A World of Hurt or Hope: The National Security Implications of Global warming /
Abrupt Climate Change.
and of interest an article
Abrupt Climate Change Focus Of U.S. National Laboratories
at http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080918192943.htm
Unlike the case of the D - O events and Younger Dryas which tell us something about what
abrupt change is like in cold
climates, we have no analogous
climates we can look
at to see what
abrupt changes might be like in a hothouse world.
However, when you look
at all the «big picture» evidence of the global system it is clear that there is nothing «natural» about it, in fact it appears that the planet is in early stages of an
abrupt change of
climate from our «normal» system to one that is much warmer and tropical like.
With respect to the all - too - prevalent misunderstandings about what is possible and what is unlikely with methane and the Arctic, and other issues, I thought Richard Alley did a good job presenting the facts
at the AGU, putting the different issues in perspective with his invited lecture, «
Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic».
The end of the first half of the Holocene — between about 5 and 4 ka — was punctuated by rapid events
at various latitudes, such as an
abrupt increase in NH sea ice cover (Jennings et al., 2001); a decrease in Greenland deuterium excess, reflecting a
change in the hydrological cycle (Masson - Delmotte et al., 2005b);
abrupt cooling events in European
climate (Seppa and Birks, 2001; Lauritzen, 2003); widespread North American drought for centuries (Booth et al., 2005); and
changes in South American
climate (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004).
Having examined — over the last 16 years — large amounts of data (time series) for signs of
abrupt changes I have no difficulty
at all in accepting BEST's hypothesis that
climate data appear to be suffused with
abrupt changes.
The American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world's largest general scientific society with a membership of 121,200 scientists and «science supporters» globally, just released an 18 - page report confirming that the world is
at growing risk of «
abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible
changes» due to
climate change.
Anastasios Tsonis, of the Atmospheric Sciences Group
at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and colleagues used a mathematical network approach to analyse
abrupt climate change on decadal timescales.
Oceans are usually thought to take much longer to
change (it takes six years for ocean currents to get from Labrador to Bermuda), so those who worry about
abrupt climate change tend to look
at potential cell reorganizations in the atmosphere with considerable interest.
Climate data
at all scales show
abrupt changes.
The American Association for the Advancement of Science acknowledged this brilliantly earlier this year, releasing an 18 - page report consisting of «just the facts,» which confirmed that the world is
at growing risk of «
abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible
changes» due to
climate change.
With
abrupt climate change — the new paradigm to replace AGW — the stage is set for radical change within as little as a decade possible at any time from natural causes — let alone with the interesting experiment of anthropogenic emissions in the mix (NAS Committee on Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
abrupt climate change — the new paradigm to replace AGW — the stage is set for radical change within as little as a decade possible at any time from natural causes — let alone with the interesting experiment of anthropogenic emissions in the mix (NAS Committee on Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
climate change — the new paradigm to replace AGW — the stage is set for radical change within as little as a decade possible at any time from natural causes — let alone with the interesting experiment of anthropogenic emissions in the mix (NAS Committee on Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
change — the new paradigm to replace AGW — the stage is set for radical
change within as little as a decade possible at any time from natural causes — let alone with the interesting experiment of anthropogenic emissions in the mix (NAS Committee on Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
change within as little as a decade possible
at any time from natural causes — let alone with the interesting experiment of anthropogenic emissions in the mix (NAS Committee on
Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Abrupt Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Climate Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Change 2002, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Abrupt Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Climate Change Page, Royal Society
Change Page, Royal Society 2010).
That
abrupt climate change happens, things like Younger Dryas happen, doesn't mean that the system is completely chaotic and trying to assign probabilities
at all levels for all variables is a worthless exercise.
The model has two stable states with two points of
abrupt climate change — the latter
at the transitions from the blue lines to the red from above and below.
The article here reviews
abrupt change in simple systems, in a 1 - D
climate model and in the
climate system
at multi-decadal timescales.
This article reviews
abrupt change in simple systems, in a 1 - D
climate model and in the
climate system
at multi-decadal timescales.
Uniquely and fearlessly AMEG has studied key non-linear trends in the Earth - human System and reached the stunning conclusion that the planet stands
at the edge of
abrupt and catastrophic
climate change as a result of an unprecedented rate of
change in the Arctic.
There is smoking gun evidence that it left
at the past cyclic
climate changes gradual and
abrupt that points to the sun.
At the darkest end of the spectrum are groups like Deep Green Resistance, which openly advocates sabotage to «industrial infrastructure,» and the thousands who visit the Web site and attend the speeches of Guy McPherson, a biology professor at the University of Arizona who concluded that renewables would do no good, left his job, and moved to an off - grid homestead to prepare for abrupt climate chang
At the darkest end of the spectrum are groups like Deep Green Resistance, which openly advocates sabotage to «industrial infrastructure,» and the thousands who visit the Web site and attend the speeches of Guy McPherson, a biology professor
at the University of Arizona who concluded that renewables would do no good, left his job, and moved to an off - grid homestead to prepare for abrupt climate chang
at the University of Arizona who concluded that renewables would do no good, left his job, and moved to an off - grid homestead to prepare for
abrupt climate change.
Gradual, insolation - driven millennial - scale temperature trends in the study area were punctuated by several
abrupt climate changes, including a major transient event recorded in all five lakes between 4.3 and 3.2 ka, which overlaps in timing with
abrupt climate changes previously documented around the North Atlantic region and farther afield
at w4.2 ka.
Axel Timmermann, a professor of oceanography
at the University of Hawaii who studies
abrupt climate changes and was not involved in this study, called it a «breakthrough analysis.»
«Our study supports the view that
changes in ocean circulation were
at least in part responsible for causing
abrupt climate changes.
There is smoking gun evidence (cosmogenic isotope
changes BE10 and C14) shows there are cyclic
changes to the sun and
abrupt changes to the sun and that the solar
change occur
at every
climate change event.
219 Discovery of Younger Dryas: Dorothy Peteet, «Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to
abrupt climate change,» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) 97 (4): 1359 - 1361 (15 February 2000)
at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/4/1359
For some contrasts between the Younger Dryas and the most serious droughts since then
at 8200, 5200, and 4200 years ago, see Fagan (1999) and Harvey Weiss, «Beyond the Younger Dryas: Collapse as adaptation to
abrupt climate change in ancient West Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean,» pp. 75 - 98 in Confronting Natural Disaster: Engaging the Past to Understand the Future, G. Bawden and R. Reycraft, editors (University of New Mexico Press 2000),
at http://www.yale.edu/nelc/weiss/byd.html.
Richard B. Alley, «Ice - core evidence of
abrupt climate changes,» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97 (4): 1331 - 1334 (15 February 2000)
at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/4/1331.
279
Abrupt change from wet to dry in the Sahara (
at least, as measured by offshore dust) as the axial tilt gradually
changes: Peter B. deMenocal, J. Ortiz, T. Guilderson, J. Adkins, M. Sarnthein, L. Baker, and M. Yarusinsky, «
Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: Rapid
climate responses to gradual insolation forcing,» Quaternary Science Review 19: 347 - 361 (2000).
The orientation of these features
at the Bahamas and Bermuda points to a very large and extremely energetic and weather systems in the North Atlantic Ocean
at this critical time of
abrupt climate change.
The view was supported by data gathered independently
at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, where Reid Bryson was already interested in
abrupt climate changes.
After another
abrupt climate change, we have
at least a «pause.»
«The
abrupt climate changes did not take place
at the extreme low sea levels, corresponding to the time of maximum glaciations 20,000 years ago, or
at high sea levels such as those prevailing today.
The Guardian: The world is
at growing risk of «
abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible
changes» because of a warming
climate, America's premier scientific society warned on Tuesday.
«
At medium sea levels, powerful forces − such as the dramatic acceleration of polar ice cap melting − are not necessary to result in
abrupt climate shifts and associated drastic temperature
changes.»
Most important was a widely noted paper by Ewing and William Donn, who were «stimulated by the observation that the
change in
climate which occurred
at the close of the [most recent] glacial period was extremely
abrupt.»
Most experts now accepted that
abrupt climate change, huge
change, global
change, was possible
at any time.