I'll admit that dimethysulphide and iodocompounds are poor reaches for straws, I don't know who dreamed that up, more emphasis should be made on natural mineral, sea - salt, and gas - to - particle aerosols)-- Very poor oversimplified cloud modeling (equating all clouds to a single W / m2 forcing parameter)--
Accuracy of model predictions (they present a juicy graph of a 1988 model and observed temps.
Accuracy of Model Predictions and the Effects of Atmospheric Stability on Wind Turbine Noise at the Maple Ridge Wind Power Facility, Lowville, NY Schneider, Clifford
Not exact matches
, Fabian Hollstein, Marcel Prokopczuk and Chardin Simen test effects
of different return sampling frequencies, forecast adjustments and
model combinations on market beta
prediction accuracy across the universe
of U.S. stocks.
However, the
accuracy of the authors»
predictions may be limited because the vaccination
model was based on several assumptions.
«As a result, some atmospheric circulations systems can not be resolved by these
models, and this clearly impacts the
accuracy of climate change
predictions as shown in our study.»
Researchers also evaluated the
accuracy of existing climate
model predictions for that region.
In addition to running the
models at the highest resolution possible to obtain the most accurate forecasts, scientists also conduct something called ensemble
models, which allow them to determine the
accuracy and consistency
of their
prediction.
In terms
of weather
prediction, that means, the «offspring»
models improve in
accuracy because they block more
of the unhelpful attributes.
Although the combination
of measures improves classification
accuracy in a
prediction model, in practice, it is difficult to discern the combination
of cut scores and patterns
of performance that would identify a student as at risk for not passing the criterion measure.
The forecast
of the order time delay data
of CSI 300 index and the comparative analysis
of the SVR
model, GA - SVR and the WD - GA - SVR
model predictions indicate that the WD - GA - SVR
model significantly improve the robustness
of the
prediction model and forecast
accuracy, can provide a reference for policy makers and investors.
I think the obvious way to do it would be to escrow the exact code and operational scripts at the time
of prediction, and then at the time
of evaluation load all best - available current data on forcings and mother
model inputs and then measure forecast
accuracy.
But the
models must be falsifiable, give unique
predictions, and
of a known calibrated
accuracy.
The
accuracy of a
model is the difference between its
predictions and the corresponding observations.
This study contributes to the development
of climate
models and thereby also increases the
accuracy of climate
predictions.
By 2025 it may be possible to evaluate the
accuracies of all the
model predictions for 2012 — 2025, and reach a reasonable conclusion as to which
model (s) might most be relied upon for planning the subsequent 75 years.
The applicability and
accuracy of the
prediction model equation is verified by way
of association
of least entropy values with the Dalton minimum.
If the
accuracy you require is, for instance, that a national peak oil
model must predict the date
of the peak within several months and be precise to the nearest 1,000 bbl / day, then indeed all
predictions have failed and will continue to do so.
To extend the range and
accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate
prediction through the development
of global coupled predictive
models.
And
of course, the
predictions are based on computer
models which can not forecast or hindcast with any
accuracy.
Consistent with the previous analyses at Skeptical Science, RFC12 finds that the climate
models used in the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) and 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) predicted the ensuing global surface warming to a high degree
of accuracy, while their central sea level rise
predictions were too low by about 60 %.
Certainly by 1972 he was stating that the
model was inadequate, while not precluding the possibility
of the
accuracy of the
predictions.
That said, we want to know the
accuracy or precision
of models so we can properly weigh their
predictions when making decisions.
Given the large uncertainties in the
model input parameters as documented in Chapter 8
of the IPCC FAR 2007, the fall in the effective global temperature as published by the Hadley Centre and GSS for 2007/2008, which was not predicted by the
models, why are there no definitive studies being made
of other
model predictions to verify their
accuracy?
Next - generation
models for estimating extinction risks should incorporate these factors in order to increase biological realism and therefore the
accuracy of future
predictions.»
And you are setting up a straw man: There are no
predictions to have come true, only scenarios, the
accuracy of which help to refine
models further in the future.
13) The inability
of climate
models to adequately reproduce the recent states and trends
of Arctic sea ice diminishes confidence in their
accuracy for making future climate
predictions.
Kogan suggested the exact
model used didn't matter much, though — what matters was the
accuracy of its
predictions.