Aerosol cooling probably reduced global warming «by about half over the past century».
Not exact matches
On the other hand, «if some volcanoes that are large enough go off and if they are the dominant cause [of increasing
aerosols], then we will
probably see some increases» in
cooling.
The warming commitment if we stop all human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is
probably very substantial: The
cooling effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half of which has been canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.
There are other factors involved in
cooling, of course (e.g., recent La Nina's), but
aerosols are
probably the most significant source of uncertainty on timescales longer than a few years..
The reason greenhouse gases can be (and
probably are) responsible for more than 100 % of the observed warming is that other factors (mainly human
aerosol pollution) have caused
cooling at the same time.
The warming commitment if we stop all human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is
probably very substantial: The
cooling effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half of which has been canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.