The increase in
deep ocean heat content is also a robust result in data sets that do not include reanalysis.
The demonstrated ability of GRACE to measure interannual OBP variability on a global scale is unprecedented and has important implications for assessing
deep ocean heat content and ocean dynamics.
However, as we recently discussed, the increase in
deep ocean heat content is a robust result in data sets that do not include reanalysis.
Why is
deep ocean heat content increasing as well?
They can see the 60 year cycle in temperatures, most likely caused by the AMO and / or north Altantic
deep ocean heat content oscillations, but they refuse to «build - in» the AMO as a natural climate variable.
The argument that this change it is somehow driven by energy reservoirs in the deep ocean is clearly flawed: the deep ocean would be * cooling * as it lost energy to the upper ocean, but
deep ocean heat content is increasing at the same time as OHC in the upper ocean is increasing.
IMO the process whose changes are most likely to be responsible for apparent changes to
deep ocean heat content are changes to the nature of turbulent vertical mixing in specific areas of the world, especially the West Pacific / South China Sea, and perhaps the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
If someone comes up with a different and cooler estimate for
that deep ocean heat content, I wonder what the next «heat hiding place» will be?
Advocates of the assumption that CO2 variations are a primary cause of changes in
deep ocean heat content (i.e., those who author government - sponsored IPCC reports and activists for the anthropogenic global warming cause) have necessarily believed that past natural variations in
deep ocean heat content are very slow and gradual.
Not exact matches
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the
deep oceans and the change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
The biggest increases in
ocean heat content were in those
deeper layers, showing «that the
deep ocean has played an increasingly important role in the
ocean energy budget since 1998,» according to the study.
Thus, during an El - Nino, much of the
heat content of the Indo - Pacific warm pool moves from being too
deep for surface measurements to detect, to being spread out on the surface of the
ocean, where surface measurements can detect it.
The authors note that more than 85 % of the global
heat uptake (Q) has gone into the
oceans, including increasing the
heat content of the
deeper oceans, although their model only accounts for the upper 700 meters.
This allows the remaining
heat to be transported down
deeper into the
ocean, causing an increase in
ocean heat content over the long - term.
We continue to «discover» vast, active volcanoes in the
deep oceans, could they not have an impact on
ocean heat content and via that the atmospheric
heat content?
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they show very nicely the changes in the
ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the
deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of
heat to the
deeper ocean (where changes in
heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
If the
heat actually remains within the earth system in the
deeper ocean, for example, while the
heat content of the remainder of the
heat reservoirs in the earth system remains unchanged,...
For example, as discussed in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred in the
deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include data from the
deep ocean in order to reconcile global
heat content and the TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
The paper also includes this useful table illustrating that according to observational data,
ocean heat content has indeed accumulated rapidly in the
deep oceans in recent years.
So where do all these graphs showing global
heat content that include the
heat hiding in the
deep ocean come from?
Original Trenberth figure «
Ocean heat content from zero to 300 meters
deep (grey), 700 meters
deep (blue), and total depth (violet).
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the
deep oceans and the change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
This includes maintaining Argo, the main system for monitoring
ocean heat content, and the development of
Deep Argo to monitor the lower half of the ocean; the use of ship - based subsurface ocean temperature monitoring programs; advancements in robotic technologies such as autonomous underwater vehicles to monitor waters adjacent to land (like islands or coastal regions); and further development of real - or near - real - time deep ocean remote sensing meth
Deep Argo to monitor the lower half of the
ocean; the use of ship - based subsurface
ocean temperature monitoring programs; advancements in robotic technologies such as autonomous underwater vehicles to monitor waters adjacent to land (like islands or coastal regions); and further development of real - or near - real - time
deep ocean remote sensing meth
deep ocean remote sensing methods.
This map shows trends in global
ocean heat content, from the surface to 2,000 meters
deep.
It is currently suspected, for example, that the recent increase in
deep -
ocean heat content is driven by geothermal sources rather than atmospheric (which would solve the «paradox» that shallow
ocean temperatures, over the same period, have fallen slightly).
Not all at once of course, but as mentioned above, when the PDO goes positive, we can likely expect a significant change in the atmospheric
heat content as
heat energy is transferred from the
deep oceans back into the atmosphere.
This includes maintaining Argo, the main system for monitoring
ocean heat content, the development of
Deep Argo for monitoring the lower half of the
ocean, and other technologies.
Changes in the
heat content of the
deep ocean are thus far more sensitive to the air - sea thermal interchanges than previously considered.
Elsewhere on this site there is a graph of overall
ocean heat content which is building indicating that while the sst is decreasing slightly the overall
ocean is warming, It is likely that this overall
ocean warming which has nothing to do with changes to the atmospheric temperature because it is the sea surface and not the
deep ocean that is in contact with the atmosphere is what is resulting in the overall rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration which is currenly increasing at 2ppmv / year.
For global warming diagnosis, use
ocean heat content changes, recognizing that the
deeper ocean heating (i.e. below the long term thermocline) is mostly unavailable to affect weather on multi-decadal time periods).
Right: global
ocean heat -
content (HC) decadal trends (1023 Joules per decade) for the upper
ocean (surface to 300 meters) and two
deeper ocean layers (300 to 750 meters and 750 meters to the
ocean floor), with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
These measurements could allow climatologists to determine the role of the solar and radiative forcings on the increase in
heat content of the late 20th century relative to that of the
deep ocean circulation.
Heat moves around the ocean in mysterious ways, and as Trenberth notes there are considerable areas of uncertainty in deep water measurements, Arctic heat content and the analysis techniques themsel
Heat moves around the
ocean in mysterious ways, and as Trenberth notes there are considerable areas of uncertainty in
deep water measurements, Arctic
heat content and the analysis techniques themsel
heat content and the analysis techniques themselves.
Johnson et al. (2007) estimated that the
deep ocean could add an additional 2 - 10 % to the upper
ocean heat content trend, which is likely to grow in importance as the anthropogenic warming signal propagates to increasing depth with time.
Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the
deep oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO data (shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
Here is a figure estimating
heat content changes for the decade from the 1990 ′ s to the 2000 ′ s showing that the
deepest layers of the
oceans have also warmed.
Right: global
ocean heat -
content (HC) decadal trends (1023 J per decade) for the upper
ocean (surface to 300 m) and two
deeper ocean layers (300 — 750m and 750 m — bottom), with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
Balmaseda et al. (2013) suggested that changes in the winds have resulted in a recent
heat accumulation in the
deep sea that has masked the surface warming and that the
ocean heat content shows a steady increase.
More frequent La Ninas and the negative phase of the PDO are the reason for the increased transfer of Global Warming contribution into the
deeper oceans in the last 15 years... This means previously the
oceans were not the receptor of as much GW
heat content?
Figure 3.2: b) Observation - based estimates of annual five - year running mean global mean mid-depth (700 — 2000 m)
ocean heat content in ZJ (Levitus et al., 2012) and the
deep (2000 — 6000 m) global
ocean heat content trend from 1992 — 2005 (Purkey and Johnson, 2010), both with one standard error uncertainties shaded (see legend).
Accurate monitoring of
deep ocean floor water temperatures is, in my opinion, the only way to really get a read on total
heat content of the
oceans.
Based upon a number of climate model experiments for the twenty - first century where there are stases in global surface temperature and upper
ocean heat content in spite of an identifiable global energy imbalance, we infer that the main sink of the missing energy is likely the
deep ocean below 275 m depth.
(By the way, neither has sea - level rise due to thermal expansion, because the thermal expansion coefficient is several times larger for warm surface waters than for the cold
deep waters — again it is warming in the surface layers that counts, while the total
ocean heat content tells us little about the amount of sea - level rise.)