The data I use is the GISS global
annual mean anomalies.
The annual mean anomalies for temperature (K) and ocean heat content (1022 J) in each 5 - or 6 - member ensemble, for each single forcing, and all - forcing «Historical» runs are provided in CSV format: tas and ohc.
This can be seen if we show
annual mean anomalies (as shown below for exactly the same data), rather than the monthly anomalies (again, done with the same R - script)
A linear trend fit to
the annual mean anomalies the last 17 years suggest similar warming rates as reported by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf.
First, a graph showing
the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted against the surface temperature records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).
I expect it will, but would you mind showing us that January - December
annual mean anomaly shows the same trend as the April - March
annual mean anomaly?
Not exact matches
Annual fire weather season length anomaly maps for a subset of known severe fire years are presented in Fig. 4 and anomalies for all years are presented in Supplementary Figs 1 — 4 and annual ensemble - mean anomaly data are available as Supplementary D
Annual fire weather season length
anomaly maps for a subset of known severe fire years are presented in Fig. 4 and
anomalies for all years are presented in Supplementary Figs 1 — 4 and
annual ensemble - mean anomaly data are available as Supplementary D
annual ensemble -
mean anomaly data are available as Supplementary Data 1.
b, d, f and h show the change in frequency of the number of years with anomalous
mean annual weather conditions (> 1σ above historical
mean) from 1996 to 2013 compared with the number of
anomalies observed from 1979 to 1996.
Bottom:
Annual (April to March)
mean SST
anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (grey shading) and its median (black line).
One finds on the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal,
annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual M
annual -
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature
Anomaly (GTA)
annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual M
annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD)
Annual M
Annual MeansMeans].
(The specific dataset used as the foundation of the composition was the Combined Land - Surface Air and Sea - Surface Water Temperature
Anomalies Zonal
annual means.)
Here are the
mean global
annual temperature
anomalies for 2001 to 2006 (NASA GISS):
The key is that the tropical Pacific is actually very well sampled (through the TOGA - COARE array) and the patterns you see in the
annual means change slowly enough for the heat content
anomalies to be well characterised.
For the 2005 global land - ocean index to exceed the
annual 1998 record, the
mean anomaly needs to stay above 0.51 °C for the next three months.
In Fig. 8, I have digitized the outer bounds of the model runs in Fig. 7, and also plotted the HadCRUT3 global
annual mean temperature
anomaly over the same period.
Observational errors on any one
annual mean temperature
anomaly estimate are around 0.1 deg C, and the errors from the linear fits are given in the text.
iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH
anomaly trend is small (the
anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 % of the
mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 % level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.
If we look at the global
annual mean temperature
anomaly time series (as derived from the University of East Angliaâ??
Tropical Atlantic (10 ° N — 20 ° N) sea surface temperature
annual anomalies (°C) in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation, relative to the 1961 to 1990
mean.
The focus on
anomalys has distracted from the most relevant metric, Global
Annual Average Temperature, which has been increasing every year for the last 10 and longer,
meaning no «Plateau»..
It is easy to see from the
annual anomaly values (not the five - year
mean smooth line) that the record exhibits «regimes» of changing trends: -LSB-...] From about 1976 to about 1998 it is strongly positive.
(a, b)
Annual -
mean sea ice concentration in the CTL and SW experiments, and (c) SST
anomalies during the last 50 years of the latter simulation.
Anomalies simply take the average of the observed temperatures (daily, monthly,
annual, max, min, or what have you), and convert them to a scale with a different zero point — a zero defined as the
mean observed temperature over some accepted calibration period.
Given pronounced spatial inhomogeneities we emphasize that by describing
mean tropical Atlantic SST
anomalies, we discuss the
mean annual cooling averaged from 20 ° N to 20 ° S over the whole Atlantic sector.
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a);
mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as
anomalies based on 1961 — 1990 temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
In essence, the
mean annual cycle of the AMSUs (NOAA - 15, NOAA - 16 and AQUA) will not include the accumulated
annual cycle
anomalies determined for the MSUs (through NOAA - 14).
The cold
anomalies in the
annual mean for the EAIS arise largely from summer and autumn (not shown).
Annual trends are calculated by averaging the monthly mean anomalies together and fitting the regression to the annual average times
Annual trends are calculated by averaging the monthly
mean anomalies together and fitting the regression to the
annual average times
annual average timeseries.
The
annual mean ice extent
anomalies are shown.
Timeseries of Antarctic temperature
anomalies from the M10, STEIGv1, and CHAPMAN datasets, for the
annual mean (left column) and spring (SON, right column), and aggregated for ALL Antarctica (top row), EAIS (middle row) and WAIS (bottom row)
The respective
mean annual anomalies are
SOI data are presented as
annual mean sea level pressure
anomalies at Tahiti and Darwin.
Shown below (Figure 2) is the relationship between
mean annual global temperature departures from the long - term average and U.S. temperature
anomalies.
Preliminary runs show that the new
mean annual cycle will be about 0.1 C warmer each month for the global averages,
meaning all monthly
anomalies will appear to decrease by about 0.1 when the new 30 - year base period is used (see below).
Figure 12:
Annual mean temperature
anomalies (departure from
mean) for Australia (1911 — 2014), using the ACORN - SAT dataset and a range of other local and international land - only (LO) and blended (BL) land / ocean datasets based upon surface - based instruments.
This chart, from Gagné et al, shows the area - averaged
annual mean sea ice concentration
anomaly between 1950 and 2005.
The individual
annual global
mean temperature
anomaly is not important.
These linear discriminants, which consist of an RASST
anomaly field and a time series that describes the projection of that
anomaly in the
annual mean RASST field, maximize the ratio of inter-decadal to inter-
annual variability, in keeping with our desire to understand the decadal - to - century scale variability in the global
mean surface temperatures (see SI Text and Figs.
Taking the coldest and warmest Decembers from the entire historical record results in 2015
annual mean temperature
anomalies of +0.61 °C and +0.89 °C, respectively ranking ninth and fourth.