Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter
arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface
Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September
Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Surface warming: «Global
temperature evolution: recent
trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Recently amplified
arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming
trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface
air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»