As surface temperture is altitude dependent one might have thought the first thing to check would be a map,
as the arctic ice lies at sea level + 9 % of its thickness, while the antarctic ice sits several kilometers high in the sky, and the surrounding apron of the stuff is immune to windage because of the circumpolar continent in its midst.
- Arctic ice at second - lowest extent since 1979 -
As arctic ice shrinks, so does a denier claim
Apart albedo, shouldn't we expect a classical water vapour feedback (and so DLF forcing)
as arctic ice is melting and arctic seas / ocean warming?
Seems this might hold for larger scale events, such
as the arctic ice melting (i.e., there would be more warming in the arctic ocean in our current times, except some of the «warming» energy is going into the melting process rather than warming).
Not exact matches
As ice melts and shipping becomes easier and at some point, oil drilling in the
arctic ocean will probably increase, Having a strong military will benefit Russia.
Potentially catastrophic amounts of methane lie trapped
as so - called burning
ices, or methane hydrates, in the permafrost beneath
arctic tundra —
as much
as 10,000,000 teragrams still trapped compared with just 5,000 teragrams in the atmosphere today, according to Simpson.
Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea
ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of
arctic coastal and near - shore areas
as sea
ice diminishes.
The island, which had detached itself from the
ice shelf on Ellesmore Island in the Canadian
arctic archipelago, was used
as a laboratory for seismic studies of the
Arctic Ocean floor,
as well
as charting currents, pollution, winds and
ice structure.
Only within the last 10,000 years, after the
ice age ended and relatively moist conditions returned to the
arctic, did nutritious forbs yield to less nourishing plants such
as graminoids and woody shrubs.
On the other hand, some changing disease patterns could be beneficial —
arctic foxes may not be able to carry rabies to Svalbard via an
ice trek
as they have in the past, for example.
Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such
as the substantial retreat of
arctic sea
ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake
ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic
ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the
ice shelves.
Habitat is being disturbed and polluted by offshore oil development in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, and
as CO2 warms our planet, the
arctic ice pack is rapidly melting; the whales are in danger from noise, oil spills and deadly collisions with ships, while global warming is steadily melting their icy abode and reducing available food.
Gradually,
as people emerge with keys, the sounds of cold engines starting and
ice scrapers rasping across windscreens begins to fill the dense
arctic air.
In his painting Conquest (
Ice Shelf), 2012, William Binnie depicts an
arctic vista, questioning the perception of landscapes
as virgin territories and the use of flags
as a mechanism to assert ownership.
When
ice melts from the world's glaciers, antarctica and the
arctic all that water evaporates and has to come down somewhere
as rain.
Dr Maslowski made an estimate in 2007 which used data through 2004 and came up with 2013
as the first year with a total meltdown of
arctic sea
ice.
I've been told by a friend that James Hansen once said that albedo changes from melting the
arctic sea
ice would capture
as much additional heat
as doubling CO2.
It is claimed that AGW «science» predicted that Southern Hemsiphere sea
ice extent would increase
as arctic sea
ice would decrease.
Both these factors (
as well
as sea
ice albedo feedbacks, give the
arctic region very strong positive feedback which regionally amplify the GW signal.
Re # 49 & # 82 The limitations on the growth of algae in the
arctic varies with the season, the effect of sea -
ice melting is not
as certain
as Harold would have us believe: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2005JC002922.shtml http://www.nurp.noaa.gov/Spotlight/ArcticIce.htm
I visualized
arctic sea
ice,
as that is affected by «the thermostat», while ocean acidification is not.
Does the «business
as usual» referred to here include the recent findings about substantially faster growth in CO2 emissions than predicted, saturation of carbon sinks, and
arctic ice melting?
I see GE
as a short term band - aid to be used to prevent the demise of
arctic sea
ice and permafrost while the oceans et al absorb some of our excess CO2.
According to NOAA / NSIDC the amounts of
arctic sea
ice in different months was
as foillows: - March 2006 14.4 million sq kms March 2007 14.7 million sq kms September 2006 5.9 million sq kms September 2007 4.3 million sq kms
according to NASA
as of a few days ago, the above circular motion has now apparently started to reverse, indicating a probable cyclical future of several decades of increasing
arctic sea
ice.
Yes I am, i know it's strange to some people but I like to read and digest information from all sources and then make up my own mind about things.I think it's a sensible question to ask why antarctic
ice is increasing when
arctic ice is decreasing but I understand that might be a topic for another post
as it will probably,
as Gavin indicated, involve many different areas for discussion.
Turns out that hurricanes apparently act
as a heat pump sending water from the tropics poleward, feeding into the process by which we are losing the
arctic ice cap.
The rise of CO2 from 270ppm to now over 400ppm, the extent of equatorial and sub tropical deforestation, the soot deposits on the polar
ice caps, the increase in atmospheric water vapour due to a corresponding increase in ocean temps and changes in ocean currents, the extreme
ice albedo currently happening in the
arctic etc, etc are all conspiring in tandem to alter the climate
as we know it.
It should then be obvious the
as more heat energy is continuously added then there will continue to be
arctic ice melting.
both of these well - researched observations would seem to put a big chink in the anthropogenic global warming theory — certainly
as it applies to melting of the
arctic ice cap.
The
arctic will be
ice free in summer within 5 - 6 years, progressing rapidly to all the remaining 9 months of the year
as the
arctic ocean continues to warm.
If,
as seems likely, the
arctic sea
ice loss worsens in coming summers, we will get rain in increasing amounts on increasingly large areas of Greenland.
in less than 5 years, i expect we'll be hearing that the
arctic ice cap appears to be refreezing and expanding at an unanticipated rate
as well.
Re: Raven (# 411),
Arctic warming in the 1930s was something they never did explain, and I note that
arctic sea
ice was hitting low levels in the early 1040s
as well.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods
As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter
arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and extents,
as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
as well
as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictor
as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September
Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea
ice predicto
ice predictors.
And wasn't the UNPRECEDENTEDLY LARGE AND GROWING extent of
arctic sea
ice cited
as incontrovertible evidence that an
ice age was nearly inevitable unless action was taken immediately?
Hansen got the warming right in the 1980s, the hockey stick is validated by numerous oth alternative research methods and ocean heat content and
arctic ice continue to rise and shrink
as predicted from the understanding of the physical effect of CO2,
as have air temperatures in the area.
Ice as polystyrene full of air was insulating the water from the winter coldness — minus ice; water absorbs extra coldness — in combination of the coldness from the air and extra coldness in the water = that double coldness as ripples goes south — intercepts 95 % INSTEAD OF 50 % of the moisture and is dropping it in Europe / USA — end result: SOUTH MUCH MORE SNOW AND COLDNESS — NO MOISTURE TO REPLENISH THE ICE DEFICIT ON ARCT
Ice as polystyrene full of air was insulating the water from the winter coldness — minus
ice; water absorbs extra coldness — in combination of the coldness from the air and extra coldness in the water = that double coldness as ripples goes south — intercepts 95 % INSTEAD OF 50 % of the moisture and is dropping it in Europe / USA — end result: SOUTH MUCH MORE SNOW AND COLDNESS — NO MOISTURE TO REPLENISH THE ICE DEFICIT ON ARCT
ice; water absorbs extra coldness — in combination of the coldness from the air and extra coldness in the water = that double coldness
as ripples goes south — intercepts 95 % INSTEAD OF 50 % of the moisture and is dropping it in Europe / USA — end result: SOUTH MUCH MORE SNOW AND COLDNESS — NO MOISTURE TO REPLENISH THE
ICE DEFICIT ON ARCT
ICE DEFICIT ON
ARCTIC.
This model has been proven skillful in reproducing the monthly
arctic (and Antarctic) sea
ice extent anomalies over the last 30 years,
as well
as the observed long - term downward trend.
As for global warming advocates, we have been warned for decades that the
arctic would be
ice free and sea levels up astronomically and no snow by now et al..
As reported at Science Daily, in a new paper in Quaternary Science Reviews they report their findings: that the present extent of sea
ice in the
arctic is at its lowest for at least several thousand years.
as you can see both show no death spiral, nor is the
arctic going to be
ice free this summer
as opined back in 2007 by some of their ilk
By the way: the
arctic ice extent in February 2011 was not a record low: in February 2005 the frozen surface was the same
as in February 2011 (14.36 square km).
Most things point to global warming such
as melting
ice in the
arctic and antarctic continent, global sea level rise, and global temperatures.
The
arctic sea
ice decline has accelerated to the point that it can truly be described
as «alarming.»
In Washington there was an awesome Earth Day warning from a government scientist, Dr. Jay Murray Mitchell said, «Pollution and over-pollution unless checked could so warm the earth in 200 years
as to create a greenhouse effect melting the
arctic ice cap and flooding vast areas of the world.»
Furthermore, why is it necessary to be so coy in this matter and use the melting of
arctic sea
ice as an «indicator?»
The decrease in albedo that accompanies the loss of sea
ice is the phenom that underlies «
arctic amplification» (
as you point out, it has nothing directly to do with sea level rise).
As for an
ice age at the 65million year extinction, don't forget that at that time there was no
ice anywhere on the planet, no greenland
ice sheet, no antarctic
ice sheet, no
arctic sea
ice.
I would agree that it is possible that
arctic ice is declining long term, but it does not seem to be doing so at any alarming rate, (about the same
as 2007) and there does not seem to be any alarming developments
as a result of it in any case.