Roger Scully's commentary is over on the Elections in Wales blog here and has an Assembly seat projection of 29 seats for Labour, 12 for the Tories, 10 Plaid, 8 UKIP and one for the Lib Dems.
The crash test dog (CTD) excursion measurement shall be calculated from start of test (pre-test) at point z on the standard seatassembly to furthest projection point during dynamic testing.