Assume bond interest rate of 10 percent and inflation of 8 percent and we find that the real after - tax rate of return is negative 2.3 percent over a 25 year period.
Not exact matches
This tool uses the present value of
bond portfolios, adjusted for
interest rate and inflation expectations, to show current retirees how much in retirement savings they need today to account for every $ 1 they need in the future,
assuming they hold a portfolio made up entirely of investment - grade
bonds and longer - term Treasurys.
So when investors hear that
interest rates may rise, some
assume it's bad for
bond investments and want to sell out of the market in a kneejerk reaction.
We
assumed that in each period a 30 - year
bond is issued at prevailing
interest rates (long - term government
bond plus 1 %) and that amount is invested for the next 30 years in a portfolio of large - cap stocks while paying off the
bond as an amortized loan (as if it were a mortgage).
As ninety percent of the returns are derived from the starting
interest rate, it's fair to
assume that
bonds will indeed offer measly returns going forward.
The only shortcoming is that (I
assume) that the
bonds you are using are long duration
bonds, which are much more volatile and suffer deeper losses when
interest rates rise, compared to shorter duration
bonds.
I'm
assuming you're planning to hold until maturity, since the rising
interest rate environment will reduce the price of the
bonds, should you decide to sell.
Put simply, even taking account of current
interest rate levels, and even
assuming that stocks should be priced to deliver commensurately lower long - term returns, we currently estimate that the S&P 500 is about 2.8 times the level at which equities would provide an appropriate risk premium relative to
bonds.
It may be somewhat useful to make comparisons to that period of time to see how certain
interest rate sensitive asset classes such as junk
bonds, REITs, dividend - paying stocks or
bonds performed, but my guess is that particular environment doesn't do a great job of showing investors what a typical rising
rate scenario would look like (
assuming there is such a thing).
As an investor's investment horizon lengthens, however, a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities becomes progressively less risky than
bonds,
assuming that the stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to then - prevailing
interest rates.
I totally agree with you and with Buffett; nonetheless there's one question, that came to my mind regarding market valuations:
Assuming bonds and
interest rates go even lower as they are today, at which level (pe ratio or Shiller pe ratio — or whatever metric you'd like to take) would I call the market of today a bubble?
Holding an individual
bond to maturity will result in the return of principal (
assuming the
bond issuer doesn't default), but those nominal dollars will be worth less with inflation and during periods of higher
interest rates.
In general,
bond prices are inversely correlated with market
interest rates — so if I'm holding a
bond portfolio and market
interest rates go up, then my portfolio will decrease in value
assuming all else is held equal.
For example, if short - term
rates were to rise 1 %, you would lose about 2 % on a short - term
bond fund (
assuming a 2 year duration), and your total return over 1 year would be about 0 % (2 %
interest minus 2 % decrease in value).
(The
assumed real
interest rate for the risk - free
bonds is 3 %, which is above current
rates, but approximates the long - run average
rate.)
Yield to maturity
assumes that all
interest payments are received from the date of purchase until the
bond reaches maturity, and that each payment is reinvested at the same
rate as the original
bond.
If we
assume that a competitive federal
interest rate will be 1.5 % plus inflation and a term of 30 years for
bonds, we can calculate the amount of the annual payments that our taxpayers will be saddled with for 30 years.
As an investor's investment horizon lengthens, however, a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities becomes progressively less risky than
bonds,
assuming that the stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to then - prevailing
interest rates.
So when investors hear that
interest rates may rise, some
assume it's bad for
bond investments and want to sell out of the market in a kneejerk reaction.
Assume that
interest rates have gone up since you bought your XYZ
bond, and that new
bonds of comparable quality are now paying 7 %.
It
assumes that coupon
interest paid over the life of the
bond will be reinvested at the same
rate.
Municipal
Bonds: Because you don't pay taxes on municipal bonds (assuming the interest earned is exempt from both state and federal tax), the rate of return can be compared directly to the debt payoff rate - no adjustments ne
Bonds: Because you don't pay taxes on municipal
bonds (assuming the interest earned is exempt from both state and federal tax), the rate of return can be compared directly to the debt payoff rate - no adjustments ne
bonds (
assuming the
interest earned is exempt from both state and federal tax), the
rate of return can be compared directly to the debt payoff
rate - no adjustments needed.
If, during this time,
interest rates rise to 3.5 %, new
bonds issued pay $ 350 per year through maturity,
assuming a $ 10,000 investment.
I totally agree with you and with Buffett; nonetheless there's one question, that came to my mind regarding market valuations:
Assuming bonds and
interest rates go even lower as they are today, at which level (pe ratio or Shiller pe ratio — or whatever metric you'd like to take) would I call the market of today a bubble?
If the inflation
rate announced in November is 0 % or less, you will earn no
interest from November 1 through April 30; in this worst case scenario, you will have earned $ 230 on your $ 10,000 for about 11 months (
assuming you bought the I
Bonds at the end of May), which comes out to about 2.5 %.
This is the most important feature of this sheet - calculating the resulting market value of a
bond portfolio
assuming interest rates change.
In late October, the «spread» in
interest rates between high - yield
bonds and Treasury
bonds neared the lowest level in a decade, meaning that investors were getting less of a premium for
assuming higher risk.2 A November survey found that 60 % of high - yield investors believed the
bonds were overvalued.3
There are higher - risk
bonds that carry high coupons (
interest rates) You may be
interested in
assuming that risk to potentially make significant
interest on your investment.