Sentences with phrase «atlantic hurricane activity»

In general, El Niño has proved to be an atmospheric event that leads to incredibly low Atlantic hurricane activity.

He's seen this model used in previous research by Emanuel, and «it seems to work fairly well at replicating overall Atlantic hurricane activity,» Klotzbach wrote in an email to Earther.

I will conclude with a discussion of current methods for forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity.

Elsner, J. B. and Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended - range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity.

PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index.

«The attribution of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming is premature,» say the researchers.

However, to gain insight on the influence of climate change on Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency, we must focus on longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane activity since very strong year - to - year and decade - to - decade variability appears in records of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs since the late 1800s should have produced a long - term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for example.

To gain more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time - scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)-- see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site.

Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?

Mojib Latif suggests, as other climate modellers, that decadal variations could explain the variations in Sahel rainfall, or the variations in Atlantic hurricane activity or sea level.

To try to gain insight on this question, we have first attempted to go beyond the ~ 50 year historical record of Atlantic hurricanes and SST to examine even longer records of Atlantic tropical storm activity and second to examine dynamical models of Atlantic hurricane activity under global warming conditions.

If this statistical relation between tropical Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity is used to infer future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, the implications are sobering: the large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for the late 21st century would imply very substantial increases in hurricane destructive potential — roughly a 300 % increase in the PDI by 2100 (Figure 1a).

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity — and particularly greenhouse warming — has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity.

El - Nino only * reduces * the Atlantic hurricane activity... not eliminates it.

So a dust bowl in the SE of the USA, presumably this is while there is also increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which is so often prophesised?

For example, there is a clear upward trend in overall North Atlantic hurricane activity by virtually all metrics, over the past 30 years or so, though the cause of this is still uncertain.

Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency).

Such decadal temperature fluctuations in the SPNA are strongly correlated with other components of the climate system, for example, Atlantic hurricane activity, North American and European river flow, and rainfall over the African Sahel and northeast Brazil.

The following table shows the decades of greatest Atlantic hurricane activity affecting the United States.

Here's another example of why the obvious ain't necessarily so: Modiki El Niños and Atlantic hurricane activity And hot may also be not.

The ongoing discussion about a potential anthropogenic signal in the Atlantic hurricane activity is an example.

«The environmental changes found here do not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st century,» said Brian Soden, Rosenstiel School associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and the paper's co-author.

Similar multidecadal variability is also seen in other (societal important) parameters such as Sahel rainfall or Atlantic hurricane activity.

The decadal variations of the AMOC obtained in that way are shown to precede the observed decadal variations in basin - wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which strongly impacts societally important quantities such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall.

71 William M. Gray, John D. Sheaffer, Christopher W. Landsea, «Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity,» pp.15 - 53 in Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts.

Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty - first - century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model - based scenarios

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high - quality satellite data are available.13, 14,15,16,17 These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms.

Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. Garner, M. Zhao, H. - S. Kim, M. Bender, R. E. Tuleya, I. M. Held, and G. Villarini, 2013: Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty - first - century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model - based scenarios.

Later this week, we will be issuing our first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity — stay tuned.

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.20, 21,22 These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms.

The study contradicts recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995.

The changing phases of Atlantic hurricane activity are not completely understood; but there appears to be a link to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, the global pattern of ocean currents which in western Europe appears as the Gulf Stream.

All the evidence such as the recent lull in Atlantic hurricane activity supports their claims.

If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Niño events greatly reduces the number and intensity of these storms.»

What it shows is a 220 year record of Atlantic hurricane activity using a novel proxy method.

«What's really important for Atlantic hurricane activity, what really gets things cranked up, is when the Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the tropics,» said Thomas Knutson, one of the paper's authors and a climate researcher at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

the years 1995 - 2000 experianced the highest level of north atlantic hurricane activity on reliable record.

The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.

The historical multidecadal - scale variability in Atlantic hurricane activity is much greater than what would be «expected» from a gradual temperature increase attributed to global warming.

The well - known impact of El Niño on reducing Atlantic hurricane activity is in fact due to increased shear from the associated atmospheric circulation changes.

Some scientists argue that Atlantic hurricane activity fluctuates naturally.

However, this increase is very likely a manifestation of a natural multi-decadal cycle of Atlantic hurricane activity that has been occurring for the last few hundred years.

Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic hurricane activity has not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles as documented here and elsewhere.

An important point in the article, I felt, was: «the very real and dangerous increases in recent Atlantic hurricane activity will no doubt continue to provide a heightened sense of purpose to research addressing how hurricane behavior might change in our changing climate...» so «give us more money!!!».

The main article says: > impact of El Nià ± o on reducing Atlantic hurricane activity is in fact > due to increased shear from the associated atmospheric circulation

I added that our current prevalence of hurricanes is thought to be a part of a natural historical cycle of Atlantic hurricane activity.

An important point in the article, I felt, was: «the very real and dangerous increases in recent Atlantic hurricane activity will no doubt continue to provide a heightened sense of purpose to research addressing how hurricane behavior might change in our changing climate...»

The conclusion of Emanuel at first sight appears to contrast with the a recent statement from NOAA that a 20 -30-year reoccurring cycle is the dominant climate factor that controls Atlantic hurricane activity and that any potentially weak signal associated with longer - term climate change appears to be a minor factor.