Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North
Atlantic hurricane tracks.
Not exact matches
Using records dating back to 1855,
hurricane researchers say they have uncovered an ongoing rise in the number of
Atlantic hurricanes that
tracks the increase in sea surface temperature related to climate change.
So climatologist James Elsner of Florida State University in Tallahassee and his colleagues looked for ties between
hurricane tracks and the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a seesaw shift in atmospheric pressures over the ocean (Science, 12 February 1999, p. 948).
Irma is the second - strongest storm ever recorded in the
Atlantic Ocean, and the National
Hurricane Center is warning that its projected
track toward a U.S. landfall on Sunday is «potentially catastrophic.»
Atmospheric models predict this will quench energy from
Atlantic hurricanes, potentially stopping them in their
tracks.
But even after Irma completes its reign of terror, another
hurricane (Jose) is picking up speed in the
Atlantic, and there are fears that it will
track a similar path to Irma, devastating already heavily damaged island nations.
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There is no reason to believe that our method would not capture the salient features in basins besides the
Atlantic, and this can be confirmed by any
hurricane specialist including those who operationally apply the Dvorak technique and / or participate in constructing the best
track.
Let me suggest a different possibility for why the algorithm finds bigger disparities everywhere except the ATL and EPAC: The
Atlantic and E. Pacific best
tracks are constructed by NHC forecasters who are the best trained
hurricane forecasters in the world, and they stay at their jobs for decades.
Using a stochastic model of storm motion derived from historic
tracks, this paper explores the relationship between lead time and
track uncertainty for
Atlantic hurricanes and the implications of this relationship for evacuation decisions.
Brian McNoldy, a meteorologist
tracking Atlantic Ocean
hurricanes at Colorado State University, just distributed this note from Phil Klotzbach, a colleague, about the unusual storminess in the
Atlantic and Caribbean at the moment:
This is an important point, since we can now see embryonic
hurricanes as they emerge from North Africa — and then
track them as they cross the
Atlantic, with many swerving to the North and missing the United States by a wide margin.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE UPDATED: Media Briefing: FEMA & NOAA to discuss preparations for
Hurricane Sandy and potential storm impacts Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and NOAA's National Weather Service are actively
tracking Hurricane Sandy as it continues moving northward over the eastern
Atlantic.
During an El Niño event, the incidence of
hurricanes typically decreases in the
Atlantic (Gray, 1984; Bove et al., 1998) and far western Pacific and Australian regions, while it increases in the central North and South Pacific and especially in the western North Pacific typhoon region (Gray, 1984; Lander, 1994; Kuleshov and de Hoedt, 2003; Chan and Liu, 2004), emphasizing the change in locations for tropical storms to preferentially form and
track with ENSO.
The figure above compares the average
track forecast errors in the
Atlantic Ocean basin during the past six
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during thi
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National
Hurricane Center during thi
Hurricane Center during this period.
He also said the ongoing strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean may have influenced the storm
track of this storm as well as the extra heat present in the
Atlantic, since the
Atlantic tends to have less active
hurricane seasons and winter storm seasons during El Niños, allowing warm water anomalies to persist.
They take pictures of
hurricanes, helping NOAA monitor these huge storms as they
track across the
Atlantic.
The
tracks of all
Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 through 2012.
2015 Mattingly, K.S., J.T. McLeod, J.A. Knox, J.M. Shepherd, and T. L. Mote, 2015: A climatological assessment of Greenland blocking conditions associated with the
track of
Hurricane Sandy and historical North
Atlantic hurricanes.