In the latter case, the alternative relative SST measure in the lower panel does not change very much over the 21st century, even with substantial
Atlantic warming projections from climate models, because, crucially, the warming projected for the tropical Atlantic in the models is not very different from that projected for the tropics as a whole.
Not exact matches
There is more to the increased thermodynamic potential of tropical storms than SST (as Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland and others have very clearly shown), an example of that is the multi-model
projections of MPI response (which shows a big swath of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) decrease in the
Atlantic, even though the entire tropics are
warming).
Contemporary changes in the distribution and species composition of Northwest
Atlantic living marine resources are already evident, but existing
projections are based on
warming scenarios from coarse resolution models.
Returning to the issue of future
projections of aggregate activity (PDI, as in Fig. 1), while there remains a lack of consensus among various studies on how
Atlantic hurricane PDI will change, no model we have analyzed shows a sensitivity of
Atlantic hurricane PDI to greenhouse
warming as large as that implied by the observed
Atlantic PDI / local SST relationship shown in Figures 1 (top panel).
«Our results imply that because dust plays a role in modulating tropical North
Atlantic temperature,
projections of these temperatures under various global
warming scenarios by general circulation models should account for long - term changes in dust loadings.
2007/04/17: GRL: Increased tropical
Atlantic wind shear in model
projections of global
warming by Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden