In addition, the appreciation of the Australian dollar is likely to have restrained export volumes, as well as lowering
Australian dollar prices.
The decline in earnings over the past year owes largely to a fall in
Australian dollar prices, as the appreciation of the Australian dollar has more than offset rising world commodity prices evident since mid last year (see section on commodity prices and the terms of trade below).
Together, these two factors led to an increase in
the Australian dollar price of crude oil of around 7 per cent in the June quarter.
Not exact matches
The return of gold mining as Western Australia's fastest - growing industry is becoming more interesting, with a near - record
price for the metal in
Australian dollars triggering increased exploration and a pair of possible mine developments in the Wheatbelt.
But, it says, it is reviewing the pace at which it progresses those projects after recent falls in coal
prices and the
Australian dollar's ongoing strength.
SC: Aussie
dollar bears who are counting on AUD to tumble on either a China growth slowdown or a collapse in
Australian house
prices will be waiting a long time.
Mr Chapman believes the projects are developing at a favourable time, «with a backdrop of a very low
Australian dollar and copper
prices going up».
The RBA study pays special attention to the exchange rate appreciation, noting that the stronger
Australian dollar had the effect of moderating the effects of resource
price increases: higher exchange rates make all exports — including resource exports — less competitive on world markets.
The behaviour of the
Australian dollar exchange rate is one example; since it was floated in the early 1980s, the path it has followed has been very similar to that of world commodity
prices (Graph 2).
Commonwealth Bank has cut its
Australian dollar forecast for this year and next to take into account a slowing global economy, the
pricing out of an interest rate hike in Australia this year and a firming of the US
dollar.
Its relatively high global position reflects the special place the
Australian dollar holds in portfolios of international funds managers because of its relation to commodity
prices, offering a degree of diversification from other currencies.
CBA cuts
Australian dollar forecasts for 2018, 2019: CBA has cut its
Australian dollar forecast for 2018 and 2019 to account for a slowing global economy, the
pricing out of an
Australian interest rate hike and a firmer US
dollar.
Normally the contraction impact of much weaker iron ore export
prices should be partially mitigated by the expansion impact of a weaker
Australian dollar, as iron - related inflows drop sharply.
While the appreciation of the
Australian dollar over the past year or so has restrained commodity
prices in
Australian dollar terms, they remain close to their average of the past decade.
The increase included a rapid $ 3.1 billion rise last week alone as the
Australian -
dollar gold
price edged up to $ 1740 an ounce.
Sentiment in the options market, as indicated by 1 - month risk reversals (a measure derived from the relative
prices of put and call options in the
Australian dollar), has also become more bullish since mid 2004.
While rural
prices are below the drought - induced peaks of 2002, they remain higher than the average of the past decade in both SDR and
Australian dollar terms.
In contrast to the strength in volumes, the value of total imports declined by around 5 per cent over the year to the December quarter, as the currency appreciation has lowered
Australian dollar import
prices.
Foreign borrowers issuing in Australia and seeking to swap back to their home currency usually receive favourable
prices in the currency swap market because of greater demand by
Australian borrowers to do the reverse — i.e. borrow in foreign currency and swap into
Australian dollars.
Similarly, oil
prices in
Australian dollar terms are currently well below the peaks seen in 2000 and 2003.
Export revenues have continued to grow rapidly due to stronger world demand, the depreciation of the
Australian dollar and firmer commodity
prices (Graph 23).
The market's largest producers, including Newcrest Mining, Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources, have also benefited from recognition that the recent rise in the US -
dollar gold
price, a weak local currency and lower costs across the sector have created significant positive tailwinds for
Australian gold miners.
This was initially spurred by a sharp lift in
Australian dollar commodity
prices and mining profits, buoyed in part by a large depreciation in the exchange rate.
The value of manufactured exports rose by 3 1/2 per cent in the December quarter, and with a stronger
Australian dollar exerting downward pressure on
prices in the quarter, volumes look to have increased solidly.
Despite the exchange rate appreciation,
prices in
Australian dollar terms have also increased significantly over the year to be well above the average level of the past decade.
That rise is made worse by the depreciation of the US
dollar (in contrast to the case for
Australians, who at least have had the benefit of a high
Australian dollar in dampening the rise in oil
prices).
It is important to note, however, that other things have not been equal: the
Australian dollar has depreciated such that in $ A terms, commodity
prices are actually higher than a year ago.
Moreover, the appreciation of the
Australian dollar has led to declines in the
prices of a number of intermediate goods, and there are some signs that it is already flowing through into consumer
prices for imported goods.
In
Australian -
dollar terms, falls in import
prices have been proportionately greater than those for exports, so that there has been a rise in the terms of trade over the year (Graph 42).
With import
prices lower in
Australian -
dollar terms, this implies that the volume of imports has increased solidly, in line with robust growth in domestic demand (Graph 39).
The fall in commodity
prices in
Australian -
dollar terms has, however, been much larger, reflecting the appreciation of the
Australian dollar.
The downward trend in the
prices of audio, visual and computing equipment continued in June, due to falling world
prices for these goods and the appreciation of the
Australian dollar.
One factor supporting the
Australian dollar over the past couple of years has been that interest rates right across the yield curve in Australia, and perceived returns on other assets, have been higher than those in a number of other countries, particularly those which experienced a recession and a collapse of share
prices in the early part of this decade.
The tendency for dealers to trade the
Australian dollar in line with commodity
prices, themselves strongly correlated with US economic growth, may also have contributed to the link, although the correlation of the
Australian dollar with the US
dollar has been significantly higher than its correlation with commodity
prices.
In the March quarter, the value of imports appears likely to have risen by around 2 1/2 per cent, with strong growth in import volumes and lower
prices owing to a further appreciation of the
Australian dollar.
While the appreciation of the
Australian dollar has reduced commodity
prices in
Australian dollar terms from their most recent peak, they remain close to their average of the past decade.
In other words, the market has gone back to a more traditional model of the
Australian dollar, based on a commodity
price story.
The recent depreciation of the
Australian dollar and consequent increase in
Australian -
dollar commodity
prices would generally imply an increase in profits for mining companies.
Wool
prices have continued to fall sharply, and are now 18.5 per cent below levels of a year ago in
Australian dollar terms, inducing some wool producers to switch to prime lamb production.
The materials sector is 5 per cent lower than at end October and has shown considerable volatility during the period because of the conflicting effects of strong increases in metals
prices and concerns about the appreciation of the
Australian dollar.
After declining to low levels in 1997, consumers» inflation expectations, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, increased slightly in the first half of this year, most probably in anticipation of the impact of the lower
Australian dollar on
prices.
The recent improvement is likely to reflect both higher global
prices for resources and a pick - up in volumes due to stronger global industrial production, and has occurred despite the appreciation of the
Australian dollar lowering
prices in
Australian dollar terms.
However, the appreciation of the
Australian dollar has reduced
prices of imported capital equipment markedly, so this result points to solid growth in real terms.
In value terms, though, imports have fallen by around 5 3/4 per cent since the end of 2002, reflecting a substantial fall in import
prices due to the
Australian dollar's appreciation.
The decline in the relative
price of imports resulting from the appreciation of the
Australian dollar has also provided some impetus to growth.
Even though the
Australian dollar has appreciated, the RBA Commodity
Price Index in A$ terms remains slightly above its average over the past 10 years.
Despite the continued weakness in commodity markets, the further decline in the
Australian dollar against the major international currencies has meant that, in domestic - currency terms, commodity
prices have remained roughly stable in recent months.
Historically, it has been normal for such periods to be associated with firming commodity
prices and, as a result, a tendency for international capital markets to find
Australian -
dollar assets attractive.
In
Australian dollar terms, commodity
prices rose by 6.6 per cent over the three months to April, and they were up by more than 12 per cent over the year.
Although the appreciation of the
Australian dollar has dampened export
prices in
Australian dollar terms, the value of exports has edged higher since mid year, rising by around 1 1/4 per cent in the December quarter.