This conclusion takes into account the approximately 62 year period natural cycle in global average surface temperatures that is obvious in the HadCRUT4 global
average surface temperature data, that had a maximum in about 1945 and again in about 2007, and that seems to be the cause of the current «pause» in global average surface temperatures.
«Why I Spend So Much Time and Effort on Climate Skepticism New Research Report on the Validity of Global
Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA's GHG Endangerment Finding»
The NASA GISTEMP global
average surface temperature data have been updated to include January 2016, which had the largest monthly temperature anomaly ever recorded: 1.13 °C elsius above the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
Not exact matches
The misunderstanding stems from
data showing that during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth's
average surface temperature had been increasing.
This year, the event will benefit from an unseasonably warm winter, with satellite
data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationplacing the
average water
surface temperature around Coney Island in December at about 48 degrees Fahrenheit (8.9 degrees Celsius).
Figure 2: The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global
surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
*
Surface temperature changes relative to 20th Century global
average (1901 - 2000) Source
data NOAA - NCEI State of the Climate: Global Analysis [Web +
data download]
Analysing
surface temperature data for 1979 - 2015, they link a warm Arctic during March to colder - than -
average temperatures over northern regions of North America and dry conditions in central southern areas between March and May.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with global
surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT
data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
In there, you will see (fig 17) a comparison of the
average surface temperatures of the model (in different seasons) with the CRU
data.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with global
surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT
data), running
average over 37 months.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the
surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot
data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the
average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
However, it is generally not possible to «tune» the models to fit very specific bits of the
surface data and the evidence for that is the remaining (significant) offsets in
average surface temperatures in the observations and the models.
What I find most interesting is that the models are not normally distributed in calculated
average surface temperature; there is a relatively tight cluster of models (22
data points) around 14.7 + / - 0.15 C absolute
temperature and the rest spread out over 12.3 C to 14.1 C; perhaps the clustered models are based on common assumptions an / or strategies which lead to a relatively consistent calculated
average surface temperature.
Using monthly -
averaged global satellite records from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP [5]-RRB- and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in conjunction with Sea
Surface Temperature (SST)
data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) extended and reconstructed SST (ERSST) dataset [7] we have examined the reliability of long - term cloud measurements.
If you take the new 2004 annual
data on
surface temperature and include it in an
average for 30 years, you have the most recent estimate of current climate, which is centered on 1989.
The C.R.U. is only one of several groups who are analyzing the long term global
average surface temperature trends drawing from mostly the same raw observed
data.
«The
average global
temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean
surfaces for July (based on preliminary
data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
«Another recent paper used a different NOAA ocean
surface temperature data set to find that since 2003 the global
average ocean
surface temperature has been rising at a rate that is an order of magnitude smaller than the rate of increase reported in Karl's paper.»
Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit for global
average near -
surface temperatures confirm that 2017 was the warmest year on record without the influence of warming from El Niño.
In our analysis we use eight well - known datasets: 1) globally
averaged well - mixed marine boundary layer CO2
data, 2) HadCRUT3
surface air
temperature data, 3) GISS
surface air
temperature data, 4) NCDC
surface air
temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea
surface temperature data, 6) UAH lower troposphere
temperature data series, 7) CDIAC
data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP
data on volcanic eruptions.
Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit for global
average near -
surface temperatures conf Read more
The
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4 global
surface temperature data sets shows a 0.08 °C warming from 2000 through 2011 (Figures 1 and 3).
And I am deaf to claims of
averaging, homogenizing, re-imagining, and all the other
data reduction artifices applied to
surface temperature records.
But the
data released today confirm that human - induced global warming is pushing
temperatures higher at an alarming rate: 2014 was the previous record holder for global
average surface temperature, clocking in at 0.57 °C above the 1960 to 1990
average, but last year was 0.75 °C above that
average.
When he presented his misleading graph, when he said 97 % of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite
data but not to
surface temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in
surface global
averages but ignores major estimates of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of Global
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's
surface is undoubtedly real, and
surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than
average for the past 100 years»
I downloaded these
data and plotted them against the «globally and annually
averaged land and sea
surface temperature anomaly» record of HadCRUT3, to see if there was any correlation.
Back in 2009, by analysing the
data, I found that the global
average sea
surface temperature, the SST, stays fairly constant when the Sun is
averaging around 40 sunspots per month.
Changes in instrumentation and
data availability have caused time - varying biases in estimates of global - and regional -
average sea -
surface temperature.
Figure 2: The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global
surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
There are a number of papers by Samuel S. Shen looking at the design of observing networks for estimating spherical harmonics with idealised
surface temperature distributions, but I'm not aware of the technique having been used to reconstruct global
average temperature using the real distribution of stations and
data.
There is a major question in my mind of the wisdom of using a «global»
surface temperature to begin with and a «global» surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature to begin with and a «global»
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin
averaged with a land based «
Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
Surface»
temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the
data that is available.
C. warmer than it was with respect to the start of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use actual
average global land - ocean
surface temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that far back).
The well below freezing
surface winter
temperatures of Northern high latitudes are such wildly variable almost non-correlated
data points which tell almost nothing of the real warming (i.e. increase in heat content of the Earth system) but may affect in an unpredictable way the global
average surface temperature.
If we are not looking for an indicator for warming but are really interested in the
average surface temperature itself then we must naturally include all
data points.
The NOAA National Climatic
Data Center's annual summary posted on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest on record, with an
average global
surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile
data series would in the present case result in a time series where warming continues with less plateauing than we see in the existing
data on global
average surface temperature.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global
surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red
The National Climatic
Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has maintained global
average monthly and annual records of combined land and ocean
surface temperatures for more than 130 years.
The WMO's preliminary estimate, based on
data from January to October, shows that the global
average surface temperature for 2015 so far is around 0.73 °C above the 1961 - 1990
average of 14 °C, and approximately 1 °C above the pre-industrial 1880 - 1899 period.
Time series of seasonally
averaged global
surface temperature (December 1879 — August 1999) based on the Quayle et al. (1999)
data set, computed as differences from the 1880 — 1998 mean.
Observed changes in (a) global
average surface temperature; (b) global
average sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red)
data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.
Parker (2004) segmented observed
surface temperature data into lighter and stronger wind terciles in order to assess whether the reported large - scale global -
averaged temperature increases are attributable to urban warming.
Figure 3: Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter
data compared with the global
averaged sea
surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to 1998.
UC Berkeley scientists calculated
average ocean
temperatures from 1999 to 2015, separately using ocean buoys and satellite
data, and confirmed the uninterrupted warming trend reported by NOAA in 2015, based on that organization's recalibration of sea
surface temperature recordings from ships and buoys.
I found that when LOD
data is added to integrated sunspot numbers departing from the long term
average, a curve can be produced which matches the sea
surface temperature record from 1850 significantly better than the co2 curve does.
According to the
data, global
average surface temperature was on a «mad dash» to extreme heat.
Now the NOAA
data comes in and confirms the GISS
data, and shows the http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/jun/global.html Global Highlights: Based on preliminary
data, the globally
averaged combined land and sea
surface temperature was the second warmest on record for June and the January - June year - to - date tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record.
The world's ocean
surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record
averaged for any June - August (Northern Hemisphere summer / Southern Hemisphere winter) season according to NOAA's National Climatic
Data Center in Asheville, N.C..