Given that
average arctic insolation is about 100 watts per square meter, this makes no sense.
The chart does not represent
the average arctic ice.
Satellite data since 1978 show that annual
average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3] % per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8] % per decade.
The average arctic sea ice monthly extent for September 2012 was the lowest observed in the satellite era at 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000 average of 7.0 million square kilometers.
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years.
Not exact matches
Bitterly cold blasts of
arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes December through January, while snowfall
averages above normal.
Regarding the ratio of
arctic to global
average temperature, your last link presents evidence that it was not affected by the distribution of insolation during LIG.
Sea ice in the
Arctic, on which
arctic animals hunt, rest, and reproduce, now covers 15 % less area than it did in 1978; it has thinned to an
average of 1.8 meters, compared to 3.1 meters in the 1950s.
Very likely such maps have been drawn — I've certainly seen them for
average scenarios given the
arctic melt - off.
However, between 1938 and 1966
average annual
arctic temperatures fell 6 degrees F. Had that trend continued, temperatures would have plummeted 10.7 degrees F in 50 years!»
You are completely right for Alaska and East Siberia (Barrow is now an
average 1Â °C warmer than around 1940 and 2Â °C warmer than around 1970), but the rest of the
arctic was as warm or warmer than today in the 1930 - 1940 period.
This would certainly explain why
arctic sea ice cover has been absolutely crashing in recent years while the HARDCRU / GISS global
average temps had been increasing more modestly.
The
arctic air that moved into the eastern half of the region during January and settled in place across much of the region through February made the warm start of the winter season finish as one that was colder than
average.
DW, you can try the US standard atmosphere which is closer to the global
average and get almost no net effect of doubling CO2, and for the
arctic it reverses.
Will Nitschke — «why was there no increased melting of the
arctic ice in 1998» — remember that the elevated global
average temperature in 1998 was due to El Niño.
I've always been fascinated by the thought of early seafarers such as Frobisher, Davis etc in the 16th c, in ungainly, vulnerable, wooden ships that could not go an inch to windward whereby on
average, 50 % of the navigable water was denied them, poking about the
arctic with a view to navigating through to the East Indies.
The weather service predicted an
average to mild winter for the mid-west (Michigan), they got
arctic cold and record lake ice.
It is arguably one of the most advanced of the seven in its impacts, with a 2011 GRL report putting its warming effect as equivalent to around 30 % of atmospheric anthro - CO2, and the recent report putting albedo loss from
arctic sea - ice decline since»79 as providing a forcing equivalent on
average to that from 25 % of the anthro - CO2 levels during the period.
Actually the argument makes more sense applied to the
arctic sea ice — both in winter and summer, since it is at a much higher
average latitude and therefore affects albedo much less.
In fact, when you compare these summer temperatures carefully, you will find that the high
arctic daily
averages have been decreasing the more CO2 is added to the atmosphere as years go by.
As 34F ocean below, this would lead to a 5 deg
average temp increase in the measurements for the
arctic area when in fact the ocean below hasn't warmed.
Air temps in
arctic are almost precisely the same as the
average for the past 50 years — So it is unlikely air temps have created ice loss — BUT CONVERSELY — the increased open
arctic water SHOULD be affecting the
arctic air temp - but is not (large expanses of 1 degree C
arctic water make it difficult for air temps to drop to minus ten C — but since that is what is happening, then in fact there must be much more cold air around to create «normal»
arctic temps for this time of the year)
Re: question, check the GISS temperature site for the anomaly maps and you will see that the
arctic is in fact warming much more than the global
average, as predicted.
would you guess that the
arctic ocean
averaged 212F?
Steven Mosher January 27, 2014 at 1:52 pm Sorry Guys, but Robert is correct.The only way you get a cooler
arctic is by pretending that it warms as fast as the global
average,
If you don't have data in the
arctic you can't use it in a global
average.
Al Gore and his ilk have to keep the focus on stuff beyond the reach of the
average person (like glaciers and
arctic sea ice).
From 1978 to 1996, the
average ice cover around Antarctica showed almost no trend (a slight increase 1.3 % per decade), however ice decreased by 2.9 % per decade on
average over the
arctic seas (1).
so that proves global warming, even thought the
average global temp is the same as sixteen years ago and the
arctic ice cap area is the highest in a decade and the Antarctic ice cap is the highest in four decades.
The «Beast from the East» was the name given by the media to an unusual weather pattern which saw warmer that
average temperatures over the
arctic sending colder air further south than normal, resulting in much of western Europe being hit with sustained low temperatures and heavy snow, blown in from Siberia.
That's a pretty silly claim on Dr. Curry's part if you consider that in the months the
arctic sea ice isn't diminished, there's never really so much sunlight as you'd count it against the
average, so whatever albedo changes there are during the half of the year that matters, they're when the sun is at its highest angle.
and just for the «cold things can't heat warm things» crowd, here is a link to Denmark's DMI which publishes
average temperature in the
arctic going back to 1958.
tonyb Also, what do you think about the Met contention that
arctic warming demonstrates the earth global
average temperature is increasing and that is an important fact?
Considering that there were places in the
Arctic this summer that were 7 to 10C warmer than
average this past winter, while some of us in the eastern and southern US froze our tails off — we got a very unusual freeze in S. Texas — due to the strongly negative
arctic oscillation (weather patterns go north to south instead of west to east), and considering that the data gaps are more in the
Arctic and inaccessible places, not here, one would expect GISS to come up with a somewhat warmer
average than Hadley & others this year.
Record droughts in many areas of the world, the loss of
arctic sea ice — what you see is an increasing trend that is superimposed on annual variablity (no bets on what happens next year, but the five - to - ten year
average in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat content — those will increase — and ice sheet volumes, tropical glacier volumes, sea ice extent will decrease.
Hi iceman, Sorry for the tardy reply, that pesky real life thing again...:) The reason there is so little excitement about the record high sea ice extent in the antarctic (aside from it having no appealing potential victims, like polar bears) versus the record low
arctic sea ice is probably because the southern record is only a matter of 2 % anamoly, whereas in the north we are now looking at levels over 40 % below
average.
A major difference between the datasets is that HadCRU omits the
arctic (in effect assuming that is warms as the global
average), while GISS estimates it by interpolation.
Statistics Canada —
Average area covered by total (all) sea ice during summer from 1968 to 2010 for sea ice regions of
Arctic Domain — EnviroStats — See how clear the trends are in all of Canada's
arctic regions: down, down, down at something like 7 or 8 percent a decade.