But with such a limited understanding of how the climate actually works, I (and Carl Hauser) prefer a more conservative prior distribution which allows for that possibility, assuming it actually is found through
Bayesian analysis of the evidence collected later than 1959.
Not exact matches
Delving deeply with powerful
Bayesian analysis methods, they were looking for
evidence that the star was being pulled from side to side by the gravitational influence
of one or more orbiting planets.
Once the
Bayesian analysis is applied to whatever
evidence one has, the influence
of the prior begins to diminish.
For example,
Bayesian analyses differ in the strength
of evidence they find for an aerosol effect.
Abstract Result The trial was closed before completion
of accrual because
Bayesian predictive probability
analyses performed by an independent data monitoring committee indicated a probability
of 0.003 that at the end
of the study prophylaxis would prove superior to observation and a probability
of 0.997 that there would be insufficient
evidence at the end
of the trial to choose either arm as superior.
An Ontario trial judge (recently) used expert
evidence based on a
Bayesian analysis to get the plaintiff's case over the balance
of probability threshold in Goodman v. Viljoen, 2011 ONSC 821.