Not exact matches
These both suggest that current
uncertainties on the annual mean data point are around ± 0.05 ºC (1 sigma)[Update: the
Berkeley Earth
estimate is actually half that].
Let's compute the warming rate using each 30 - year segment of the
Berkeley data, together with the
estimated uncertainty in that rate, using an ARMA (1,1) model for the noise just to feed the «
uncertainty monster.»
The
Berkeley data is plotted with
uncertainties estimated via randomly subdividing the 179,928 scalpeled stations into 8 smaller sets, calculating global land averages for each of those, and then comparing the results using the «jackknife» statistical method.