Betting road underdogs in games with low totals has generated a profit in 11 of 12 seasons.
Not exact matches
New York is 8 - 2 in its last 10 games on the
road and 5 - 2 in its last seven games as the
betting underdog according to the OddsShark MLB Database.
Before the season we wrote our annual College Basketball and
Betting Against the Public article, which found that
road underdogs of 10 - 20 points had won at a 54.6 % clip since 2008.
We would like to stress that the only picks that we endorse are our Best
Bet picks, but between the contrarian value and
betting system matches we would definitely lean towards the
road underdog in this matchup.
Both teams are currently
road underdogs receiving less than 25 % of spread
bets as they travel to Pittsburgh and San Francisco, respectively.
The
underdog Golden State Warriors need a
road win to survive a Game 6 against the
betting favorite Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night.
To start, we know historically in the NHL that when
betting against the public in the regular season,
road underdogs have fared better than home
underdogs.
As a result, the
betting public remains just slightly in favor of the
underdog Bengals keeping it within a field goal on the
road against the AFC South champion Texans.
Since the 2005 regular season,
road underdogs receiving less than 45 % of moneyline
bets have an overall record of 1712 - 2654.
Unfortunately, using a simple favorite versus
underdog filter provided no additional value, and
betting against
road teams playing in their second game in as many nights actually produced a win rate above 50 %, but failed to cover the necessary vig needed to produce a winning system.
That indicates that large wagers (typically placed by wise guys or
betting syndicates) have taken the
road underdog.
Vanderbilt at Florida: Tons of love on the
road underdog here too, getting nearly 70 % of spread
bets.
Tampa Bay (+165 at the market - setting Cris sportsbook) is receiving just 19 % of moneyline wagers as a
road underdog, making it a potential Best
Bet this evening.
-- The Minnesota Wild are currently receiving just 28 % of moneyline
bets as a +175
road underdog today against the Chicago Blackhawks.
There have been contradicting
bet signals triggered on this game, but almost every historical trend points towards value on the Warriors as a small
road underdog.
In one of this week's most heavily
bet games, Texas Tech opened as 4.5 - point
road underdogs at Pinnacle.
The Canadiens are currently receiving just 18 % of moneyline
bets as a
road underdog, which means they fit the criteria for our 2014 NHL Playoffs:
Betting Against the Public article.
Is there value in
betting the ML of
underdog road teams in the NBA receiving 30 % or less of the wagers?
Once we had narrowed our search to spotlight
road underdogs, we decided to determine the ideal range for public
betting at our seven contributing sportsbooks.
You all recently posted an NBA trend about
underdog road teams receiving 30 % or less of the wagers as a winning
betting strategy.
The Mountaineers opened as 1.5 - point
road underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook and, according to our public
betting trends, they have received 39 % of spread tickets and 38 % of total dollars wagered.
Before the start of the season we published our 2014 - 15 College Basketball
Betting Against the Public report which explained how bettors could capitalize on contrarian value by taking large
road underdogs following a loss.
Our sweet spot comes when we examine double - digit
road underdogs who are receiving no more than 25 % of spread
bets.
That said, the ideal moneyline range for these heavily
bet road teams comes when we look at
underdogs of +185 or less.
Our Week 5 contrarian
betting system (which is available for ESPN Insider subscribers) highlights
road underdogs who performed poorly in the previous season.
Road teams, double digit
underdogs and
betting against the public have all been profitable trends over the past decade, so the Titans do appear to be offering some value to bettors this weekend.
In a battle of 1 - 2 teams, the Eagles opened as 3 - point
road underdogs at CRIS and have received 83 % of spread
bets.
I'm really intrigued by both Monaco and Leicester City as
underdogs, but again I'm hesitant to place a
bet before they play their opening games on the
road.
Betting Nuggets Arkansas closed with 69 % of tickets as a
road underdog in one of the most
bet games of the day, but lost at Auburn 56 - 3.
It's also important to realize that
road teams receiving no more than 30 % of spread
bets are almost always
underdogs.
The Raiders opened as 1.5 - point
road underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook, but they have received 83 % of spread
bets and 92 % of total dollars wagered.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we found that elite teams have traditionally been undervalued when they're an
underdog in the midst of a prolonged
road trip.
As you can see from the
Bet Labs screenshot below,
road underdogs have provided value in games with low totals.
This one was system that I thought would be profitable because no one likes to
bet on an
underdog on the
road that has been playing poorly lately.
Betting trends say that 51 percent are betting on the cheese heads to cover and a stunning 73 percent taking the road underdogs to win ou
Betting trends say that 51 percent are
betting on the cheese heads to cover and a stunning 73 percent taking the road underdogs to win ou
betting on the cheese heads to cover and a stunning 73 percent taking the
road underdogs to win outright.
Who is the most profitable ATS coach as an
underdog, on the
road or
betting against the public?
Betting Trends
Underdogs went 34 - 24 (58.6 %) ATS
Road teams went 29 - 28 (50.9 %) ATS Overs went 35 - 25 (58.3 %)
Betting against the -LSB-...]
Week 4
Betting Trends
Underdogs went 32 - 26 (55.2 %) ATS
Underdogs in 2017: 157 - 123 (56.1 %) ATS, +24.54 units
Road teams went 35 - 22 (61.4 %) ATS
Road -LSB-...]
The Dogs are Barking
Underdogs went 31 - 24 (56.4 %) ATS
Road teams went 28 - 27 (50.9 %) ATS Overs went 29 - 26 (52.7 %)
Betting against -LSB-...]
Week 2
Betting Trends
Underdogs went 43 - 27 (71.7 %) ATS
Road teams went 47 - 21 (69.1 %) ATS Unders went 46 - 24 (65.7 %) Games with totals of 60 points or more: Under was -LSB-...]
Spread
betting trends (all records are against the spread): Minnesota is 3 - 8 their last 11
road, 4 - 15 as a
road underdog of 0.5 - 3.0, 1 - 8 as
underdog.
Bet small
underdogs on the
road.
Week 5
Betting Trends Favorites: 31 - 21 (59.6 %) ATS First weekend in 2017 that
underdogs were losers
Road teams: 28 - 24 -LSB-...]
Spread
betting trends (all records are against the spread): Army is 6 - 1 as
road underdogs, yet 7 - 18 as an
underdog of 3.5 - 10.0, 2 - 8 to teams with a winning record.
Week 1
Betting Trends
Underdogs went 45 - 41 (52.3 %) ATS
Road -LSB-...]