So, for now, we have seen the Executive Summary, the Introduction, and the Concluding Remarks of Chapter 7: Couplings
Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry.
Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings
Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry.
Not exact matches
In geological time, the balance of the
system has
changed several times, and just like any
system can have a resonance at certain points, the
climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering
between two states (our current 100,000 year ice age warm period cycle).
The session explores regional integration of records and dynamic modeling to: (1) understand better the nature of
climate - human - ecosystem interactions; (2) quantify the roles of different natural and anthropogenic drivers
in forcing environmental
change; (3) examine the feedbacks
between anthropogenic activity and the natural
system and; (4) provide integrated datasets for model development and data - model comparisons.
Given the political
climate and opportunities for
change — the availability of stimulus funds (including Secretary of Education Arne Duncan's commitment of $ 350 million
in stimulus funding to support assessment work), the movement toward common standards, and the upcoming reauthorization of No Child Left Behind — we can bypass the debate
between the two flawed options of either maintaining the status quo or returning to performance - based assessment
systems of the 1990s.
Global
climate change appears to be an example where a dissociation
between the output of the analytic and the affective
system results
in less concern than is advisable, with analytic consideration suggesting to most people that global warming is a serious concern, but the affective
system failing to send an early warning signal (Weber, 2006).
We believe that negative synergies
between deforestation,
climate change, and widespread use of fire indicate a tipping point for the Amazon
system to flip to non-forest ecosystems
in eastern, southern and central Amazonia at 20 - 25 % deforestation.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work
in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations
in the
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike
in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence
in both
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation
in the
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel
in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role
in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST
changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published
in Nature),
in showing how
changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO,
in examining the role of solar variations
in explaining the pattern of the Medieval
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship
between the
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work
in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
The approximately 20 - year lag (
between atmospheric CO2 concentration
change and reaching equilibrium temperature) is an emerging property (just like sensitivity) of the global
climate system in the GCM models used
in the paper I linked to above, if I understood it correctly.
«Because the global earth
system is highly complicated, until a relationship
between actual storm intensity and tropical
climate change is clearly demonstrated, it would be premature to conclude that such a link exists or is significant (from the standpoints of either event or outcome risk)
in the context of variability.»
Whether there is a divide
between weather and
climate scientists out
in the field, the meteorological society's official 2007 statement on
climate change very clearly accepted that people are jogging the
system: «[S] trong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to
climate change.»
In geological time, the balance of the
system has
changed several times, and just like any
system can have a resonance at certain points, the
climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering
between two states (our current 100,000 year ice age warm period cycle).
In principle, changes in climate on a wide range of timescales can also arise from variations within the climate system due to, for example, interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere; in this document, this is referred to as «internal climate variability»
In principle,
changes in climate on a wide range of timescales can also arise from variations within the climate system due to, for example, interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere; in this document, this is referred to as «internal climate variability»
in climate on a wide range of timescales can also arise from variations within the
climate system due to, for example, interactions
between the oceans and the atmosphere;
in this document, this is referred to as «internal climate variability»
in this document, this is referred to as «internal
climate variability».
This has included early analytical assessments (such as a 1987 Ambio paper and this one from the journal Climatic
Change) of the risks between climate change and security through changes in access to Arctic resources, food production, and water resources, as well as the ongoing Water Conflict Chronology — an on - line database, mapping system, and timeline of all known water - related conf
Change) of the risks
between climate change and security through changes in access to Arctic resources, food production, and water resources, as well as the ongoing Water Conflict Chronology — an on - line database, mapping system, and timeline of all known water - related conf
change and security through
changes in access to Arctic resources, food production, and water resources, as well as the ongoing Water Conflict Chronology — an on - line database, mapping
system, and timeline of all known water - related conflicts.
Included
in this is a much fuller representation of what happened during the «Mid-Pleistocene Transition» (MPT)-- a major
change in the Earth's
climate system, which took place sometime
between 1.25 million and 600 thousand years ago.
There has been a recent emphasis
in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage
between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition
change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned
in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the
climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.
And through conversations with others
in the growing
climate justice movement, I began to see all kinds of ways that
climate change could become a catalyzing force for positive
change — how it could be the best argument progressives have ever had to demand the rebuilding and reviving of local economies; to reclaim our democracies from corrosive corporate influence; to block harmful new free trade deals and rewrite old ones; to invest
in starving public infrastructure like mass transit and affordable housing; to take back ownership of essential services like energy and water; to remake our sick agricultural
system into something much healthier; to open borders to migrants whose displacement is linked to
climate impacts; to finally respect Indigenous land rights — all of which would help to end grotesque levels of inequality within our nations and
between them.
Rather, the ice core record shows clearly that
changes in temperature precede
changes in carbon dioxide throughout the glacial - interglacial cycle (Mudelsee, 2001), and that for the last half million years the
climate system has oscillated
in a self - limiting way
between glacials and interglacials by about 6 deg.
Natural variability might modulate the flow of energy
between parts of the
system, such as from ocean to atmosphere, but the «pace of
climate warming», as
in the general gain
in energy (or loss of energy) of the entire
climate system, can only be dictated by some external forcing, such as somthing that
changes the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, volcanoes, or
changes in GH gas concentrations.
I have devoted 30 years to conducting research on topics including
climate feedback processes
in the Arctic, energy exchange
between the ocean and atmosphere, the role of clouds and aerosols
in the
climate system, and the impact of
climate change on the characteristics of tropical cyclones.
• The readiness of the nation to predict and avoid public and occupational health problems caused by heat waves and severe storms • Characterization and quantification of relationships
between climate variability, health outcomes, and the main determinants of vulnerability within and
between populations • Development of reliable methods to connect
climate - related
changes in food
systems and water supplies to health under different conditions • Prediction of future risks
in response to
climate change scenarios and of reductions
in the baseline level of morbidity, mortality, or vulnerability • Identification of the available resources, limitations of, and potential actions by the current U.S. health care
system to prevent, prepare for, and respond to
climate - related health hazards and to build adaptive capacity among vulnerable segments of the U.S. population
A sentence
in Chapter 13 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability states: «Up to 40 percent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction
in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and
climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation.»
Over the next 3 years the Ocean Colour
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized global satellite data products from multi-sensor data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor global satellite data products for climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized global satellite data products from multi-sensor data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor global satellite data products for
climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on
climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production
system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation
between international Earth observation,
climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and modelling communities,
in pursuit of scientific excellence.
Counters: «Once the model finishes producing the data representing how radiative forcing has
changed over time, we can then go back and analyze that data to see how the
climate system in terms of temperature and other factors will
change based on empirical relationships
between atmospheric factors and
changes in temperature.»
Once the model finishes producing the data representing how radiative forcing has
changed over time, we can then go back and analyze that data to see how the
climate system in terms of temperature and other factors will
change based on empirical relationships
between atmospheric factors and
changes in temperature.
Adapting core principles of risk assessment to
climate: To date, the approach of
climate change assessments has primarily been rooted
in communicating relative scientific certainty and uncertainty around anticipated
changes in the physical
climate system, along with some basic biophysical impacts that would seem to be generally implied by those
climate changes: based, for example, on general understanding of associations such as those
between impacts and weather extremes.
A spokesperson for Australia's
climate change minister Greg Combet told RTCC that they remained committed to a two way link up
between their own
system and Europe's
in 2018.
Climate feedback - An interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system is called a climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initi
Climate feedback - An interaction mechanism
between processes
in the
climate system is called a climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initi
climate system is called a
climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initi
climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers
changes in a second process that
in turn influences the initial one.
Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt
change in the
climate system, or
in abrupt impacts of gradual
changes in the
climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance
between mitigation and adaptation.
«
In the Pliocene and Pleistocene, there appears to have been strong coupling
between climate and pCO2
changes; there is a wide range of Earth
System sensitivity values, all of which exceed or are at the high end of Charney and Earth
System sensitivity estimates derived from
climate models.
st Order Draft, the Second Order Draft, p7, cites several papers re empirical relationships
between GCR and aspects of the
climate system and notes: «The forcing from
changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesiz GCR - cloud link.»
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key
climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences
in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following
climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal
changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather
systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship
between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
A
change in surface temperature can occur because of a) radiative forcing b) shuffling around of heat
between different components of the
climate system (eg oceans, cryosphere, atmosphere)
The interactions
between a recovering ozone hole, increasing greenhouse gases, ocean currents, and other components of the
climate system must still be explored
in order to better understand how the Earth's
climate will
change in the future.
The non-linearities are emergent properties of the complex interconnectivity of the many parts of the earth
climate system — The presence and amplitude of El Nino
changes the rainfall
in the southeastern US, which affects evapotranspiration and cloudiness over the warm parts of the Atlantic, which affects the amount of sensible and latent heat which goes into the atmosphere, which the prevailing winds carry to Great Britain, and so on through a chain of events which eventually influence the barometric pressure differences
between the Eastern and Western Pacific which drive the ENSO.
«Up to 40 % of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction
in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and
climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation (Rowell and Moore, 2000).»
The contested IPCC statement reads: «Up to 40 % of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction
in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and
climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation (Rowell and Moore, 2000).»
The short and lazy answer to Matthew Marler's question about the column energetics that bring the
system back to equilibrium is that GCMs do of course represent evaporation, sensible heating, etc
in ways that are undoubtedly imperfect (e.g., via «bulk formulas» that transfer energy down - gradient of temperature or humidity differences
between the surface and air aloft), but they are free to evolve
in climate change scenarios
in ways that are physically self - consistent.