On balance, the results to date appear to be consistent with the March 2017
Budget forecast of a deficit of $ 23.0 billion.
Personal income tax revenues were up $ 2.6 billion (5.7 %), somewhat the 2017
Budget forecast of 6.1 % for the year as a whole.
Direct program expenses were up $ 1.3 billion (3.4 %), significantly below the 2017
Budget forecast of 6.3 %.
However, the deficit for 2011 - 12 was $ 1.4 billion higher than the March 2012
Budget forecast of $ 24.9 billion, due to lower revenues.
This was based on a table that appeared in Volume I of the Public Accounts of Canada 2012 that compared the final audited outcome for 2011 - 12 to the June 2011
Budget forecast of program expenses.
Although this is encouraging news, at least five to six months of financial data are required before one can assess the current results to the June 2011
Budget forecast of $ 32.3 billion for the fiscal year as a whole.
Although this is encouraging news, at least five to six months of financial data are required before one can assess the current results to the March 2012
Budget forecast of $ 21.1 billion for the fiscal year as a whole.
These large discrepancies suggest that the April
Budget forecast of a surplus of only $ 1.4 billion could be understated by at least $ 2.5 billion.
More importantly, the deficit for 2012 - 13 was a whopping $ 6.9 billion lower than the March 2013
Budget forecast of $ 25.9 billion.
Although this is encouraging news, at least five to six months of financial data are required before one can properly assess the current results to the June 2011
Budget forecast of $ 32.3 billion for the fiscal year as a whole.
Personal income tax revenues were up $ 0.8 billion (3.3 %), well below the 2017
Budget forecast of 5.8 % for the year as a whole.
In contrast, corporate income tax revenues (up $ 0.5 billion or 7.1 %) and sales and excise taxes (up $ 1.2 billion or 14.9 %) were well above
their Budget forecasts of 2.6 % and 2.2 %, respectively.
In contrast, corporate income tax revenues (up $ 1.9 billion or 14.8 %) and sales and excise taxes (up $ 2.2 billion or 12.8 %) were well above
their Budget forecasts of 2.6 % and 2.2 %, respectively, for the year as a whole.
Not exact matches
I put more faith in futures markets than in private sector and budgetary
forecasts, but given the recent escalation
of oil prices, there is a reasonable chance prices end up matching or exceeding the estimates in
Budget 2016.
Years ago, under Paul Martin, Finance stopped using its own
forecasts, opting instead to base the
budget on the average prediction
of a group
of outsiders, mostly the lead economists at the country's biggest banks.
Often, but not always, forward - looking statements can be identified by the use
of words and phrases such as «plans,» «expects,» «is expected,» «
budget,» «scheduled,» «estimates,» «
forecasts,» «intends,» «anticipates,» or «believes» or variations (including negative variations)
of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results «may,» «could,» «would,» «might» or «will» be taken, occur or be achieved.
Personal income tax will hit a 20 - year high
of 12.5 per cent
of GDP by 2020 - 21 under the
budget forecasts as the government relies on bracket creep and an increase in the Medicare levy to return the
budget to surplus.
A number
of packages also provide insight tools to make light work
of forecasting, valuation, future
budget planning, VAT returns and payroll analysis.
«The president just stripped the Department
of Homeland Security
of its leader, was blasted by the outgoing head
of hurricane
forecasting for how his
budget cuts could set back this work, and lacks any experience (as a senator or governor) with navigating a difficult disaster response.
Page 60
of the
budget gives
forecasts of 2.0 % GDP growth, -0.4 % for GDP inflation, and 0.60 % for the 3 - month T - Bill rate for 2015.
As a business owner, look for an accountant who can offer advice when you set
budgets,
forecasts and goals for your business and can provide valuable input based on their knowledge
of your finances.
If you have trouble with numbers, are not sure if you're setting up
forecasts and
budgets correctly, or need help understanding whether or not labor costs should be cost
of goods or expenses, for example, your accountant should be able to help.
Analysts were
forecasting weekend sales
of $ 41 million to $ 47 million for the Spielberg film, a respectable opening for a movie with a production
budget set at $ 150 million to $ 175 million by people with knowledge
of the matter, and additional millions in marketing costs.
Furthermore, our management uses each
of these measures as measures
of the performance
of our operations for
budgeting and
forecasting, as well as employee incentive compensation.
There is plenty
of time to introduce these commitments in future
budgets: they came with the proviso they would not be implemented until the
budget was balanced, which the Department
of Finance
forecasts will occur in fiscal 2015 - 2016.
One
of the most important skills
of any entrepreneur is the ability to prepare
budgets and accurate financial
forecasts for the business.
One
of the first things I look for in any
budget are the economic projections, particularly after Budget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price fore
budget are the economic projections, particularly after
Budget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price fore
Budget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price
forecasts.
Finance ministers routinely call on outside economists for input and
forecasts as part
of the
budget - writing process.
The economic
forecasts in the
budget will be a little less interesting this year as in late February the Department
of Finance released a set
of forecasts in their Canadian Economic Outlook (CEO).
But there are useful classes for financial professionals, especially newly promoted controllers, who might benefit from intensive exposure to state -
of - the - art cash
forecasting,
budgeting, and financial - reporting systems (taught in Seminar 1206QGF, The Controller's Job in Today's Environment).
The
forecast also reflects the ongoing impacts
of measures announced in the 2012
Budget to freeze the Business Education Tax reduction plan.
From all three perspectives addressed in the review, Drummond concluded that «the Ontario Ministry
of Finance revenue
forecast is a sound basis for
budget planning.»
In the more realistic case that growth is 1pc lower than
forecast, but is coupled with an ambitious
budget surplus
of around 2.5 pc
of GDP, Greece would still require a total write - off
of its entire first bail - out package worth $ 53.1 bn.
Revenue
forecasting helps you
budget business expenses early because you have a better idea
of the total amount
of money you have to
budget each month.
For the 2014
Budget, the Ministry
of Finance retained Don Drummond, one
of Canada's top economists, to review the revenue
forecast and provide an opinion on its reasonableness.
Finally, changes since recent
budgets were examined to understand the nature
of past variances and whether there may still be biases in the current
forecast.
The inadequate level
of «risk adjustment» in the
forecast seriously undermines the «credibility»
of the latest fiscal update as a basis for
budget planning.
Despite the fact that economic growth for this year is now
forecast to be substantially lower than that expected at the time
of the April
Budget, Mr. Oliver is still confident that the federal government will record a surplus in 2015 - 16.
The inadequate level
of «risk adjustment» in the
forecast seriously undermines the «credibility»
of the latest fiscal update as a basis for
budget planning and the ability to claim a budgetary surplus over the medium term.
We should also have been given the
forecast of the Department
of Finance and justification for not using it as the basis for
budget planning instead
of an «average».
The prudence that he proposes to include in his
budget forecast should be increased to a minimum
of $ 4 billion in 2013 - 14 and growing over time.
The monthly results for most
of the major components are consistent with their 2012
Budget forecasts.
As we have argued before (Time to Make the
Budget Planning Process More Accountable, Transparent and Prudent — November 2010 www.3dpolicy.ca), we would strongly recommend that you use the Department of Finance's economic forecast rather than average of private sector forecasts, arguing that the Department's economic forecasts provide the most accurate basis for budget foreca
Budget Planning Process More Accountable, Transparent and Prudent — November 2010 www.3dpolicy.ca), we would strongly recommend that you use the Department
of Finance's economic
forecast rather than average
of private sector
forecasts, arguing that the Department's economic
forecasts provide the most accurate basis for
budget foreca
budget forecasting.
In the June 2011
Budget, the Government
forecast a deficit
of $ 32.3 billion.
This
forecast was reduced by $ 1.3 billion to a deficit
of $ 31.0 billion in the November 2011 Update
of Economic and Fiscal Projections and by a further $ 6.1 billion to a deficit
of $ 24.9 billion in the March 2012
Budget.
As a result, compared to the March 2012
Budget planning assumption, the level
of nominal GDP is $ 9 billion lower in 2012 — this consists
of a «risk adjustment factor»
of $ 7 billion and the difference between the change in the private sector average
forecast of $ 22 billion less the March 2012
Budget «risk adjustment factor»
of $ 20 billion.
It is probably no coincidence that the release was on the same day as the release
of the Parliamentary
Budget Officer's «An Update
of the
Budget 2015 Fiscal Outlook», which
forecasts a deficit
of $ 1.0 billion for 2015 - 16.
Unfortunately,
budget forecasts do not provide a breakdown
of the various components
of nominal GDP, such as wages and salaries, corporate profits, interest income, etc., so it is difficult to properly assess the impact
of changes in the economic
forecast to changes in the major components
of budgetary revenues.
Using the Bank
of Canada
forecast growth
of 1 % for 2015, we have estimated that there would be a deficit
of $ 1.6 billion in 2015 - 16 but have maintained the April
budget forecast for the remaining years.
The PBO questioned the extent
of the upward revisions to the March 2012
Budget deficit
forecasts, given the projected downward revisions to the economic
forecast.