This comes back to
the business cycle risk we talked about earlier wherein the U.S. doesn't always perform well when Germany's performing well, which doesn't always perform well when Japan's performing well.
The preliminary economic profile for the US in February continued to reflect healthy momentum and this week's issue of the US
Business Cycle Risk Report confirmed that the numbers overall continued to skew positive, based on data published through the end of March.
Business cycle risk High yield issuers typically have riskier business strategies and more leveraged balance sheets, exposing them to greater risk of default at times of a downturn in business conditions.
Monitor the outlook with a subscription to: The US
Business Cycle Risk Report
Not exact matches
In the U.S. market,
business leaders count on predictable electoral
cycles and domestic peace when they calculate
risk - reward ratios.
These
risks include, in no particular order, the following: the trends toward more high - definition, on - demand and anytime, anywhere video will not continue to develop at its current pace or will expire; the possibility that our products will not generate sales that are commensurate with our expectations or that our cost of revenue or operating expenses may exceed our expectations; the mix of products and services sold in various geographies and the effect it has on gross margins; delays or decreases in capital spending in the cable, satellite, telco, broadcast and media industries; customer concentration and consolidation; the impact of general economic conditions on our sales and operations; our ability to develop new and enhanced products in a timely manner and market acceptance of our new or existing products; losses of one or more key customers;
risks associated with our international operations; exchange rate fluctuations of the currencies in which we conduct
business;
risks associated with our CableOS ™ and VOS ™ product solutions; dependence on market acceptance of various types of broadband services, on the adoption of new broadband technologies and on broadband industry trends; inventory management; the lack of timely availability of parts or raw materials necessary to produce our products; the impact of increases in the prices of raw materials and oil; the effect of competition, on both revenue and gross margins; difficulties associated with rapid technological changes in our markets;
risks associated with unpredictable sales
cycles; our dependence on contract manufacturers and sole or limited source suppliers; and the effect on our
business of natural disasters.
But shorter technology and product
cycles, persistent de-regulation and fiercer global competition also keep adding
risks to the
business environment and to company fundamentals.
Factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing from our forward - looking statements include
risks relating to: failure of DBRS to rate the Notes at the anticipated ratings levels, which is a closing condition, or at all; changes in the financial markets, including changes in credit markets, interest rates, securitization markets generally and our proposed securitization in particular; the willingness of investors to buy the Notes; adverse developments regarding OnDeck, its
business or the online or broader marketplace lending industry generally, any of which could impact what credit ratings, if any, are issued with respect to the Notes; the extended settlement
cycle for the scheduled closing on April 17, 2018, which may exacerbate the foregoing
risks; and other
risks, including those described in our Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and in other documents that we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time which are or will be available on the Commission's website at www.sec.gov.
Gold: We typically see commodities outperform stocks and other
risk assets in the late stages of a
business cycle.
Yet, with key economies in different stages of the
business cycle, «the
risk of the global economy, or any of its major constituents, running too hot over the next 12 months is contained,» says Elga Bartsch, Co-Head of Global Economics.
They include high levels of labor mobility, high levels of capital mobility, a system of transfers that shares
risks across the region, and coordinated
business cycles.
If there is a danger that monetary policy will be seen as «too difficult», there is also a
risk that too much will be expected of it or, at least, that its success or failure will be judged against an impossibly - high standard: it can't cure the
business cycle; it can't reduce inflation costlessly; and it can't be operated with surgical precision.
Services Advisory Assurance Attest Services Audit, Reviews & Compilations Employee Benefit Plan Audits Internal Audit Services International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) IT Audit Services SEC Services SOC 1 and 2 Services Statutory Financial Audits Tax Accounting Methods Cost Segregation Estate Tax Credits Executive Compensation Federal Corporate Tax Generational Wealth Planning International Tax Mergers & Acquisitions Real Estate Research & Development Tax Credits Sales and Use Tax State & Local Tax Tax Accounting Tax Reform Transfer Pricing
Business Support DHG Search DHG Staffing Forensics Commercial Damages Digital & Computer Forensics Domestic Matters Fraud & Corporate Investigations Personal Damages Healthcare Consulting Alternative Payment Models Center For Industry Transformation Points Beyond Blog CFO Advisory Bundled Payment Models Clinical Documentation Improvement Enterprise Intelligence iluminus Reimbursement Revenue
Cycle Senior Living Strategy Physician Enterprise Optimization International Services Chinese
Business Services Japanese
Business Services Investment Management DHG Agency DHG Wealth Advisors IT Advisory Retirement Plan Administration
Risk Advisory Finance & Process Transformation Internal Audit & Compliance Regulatory Services &
Risk Management Technology Services Transaction Advisory Valuation Services Financial Reporting Healthcare Valuations
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the
business cycle and our current recession
risk?
Many factors could cause BlackBerry's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward - looking statements, including, without limitation: BlackBerry's ability to enhance its current products and services, or develop new products and services in a timely manner or at competitive prices, including
risks related to new product introductions;
risks related to BlackBerry's ability to mitigate the impact of the anticipated decline in BlackBerry's infrastructure access fees on its consolidated revenue by developing an integrated services and software offering; intense competition, rapid change and significant strategic alliances within BlackBerry's industry; BlackBerry's reliance on carrier partners and distributors;
risks associated with BlackBerry's foreign operations, including
risks related to recent political and economic developments in Venezuela and the impact of foreign currency restrictions;
risks relating to network disruptions and other
business interruptions, including costs, potential liabilities, lost revenues and reputational damage associated with service interruptions;
risks related to BlackBerry's ability to implement and to realize the anticipated benefits of its CORE program; BlackBerry's ability to maintain or increase its cash balance; security
risks; BlackBerry's ability to attract and retain key personnel;
risks related to intellectual property rights; BlackBerry's ability to expand and manage BlackBerry ® World ™;
risks related to the collection, storage, transmission, use and disclosure of confidential and personal information; BlackBerry's ability to manage inventory and asset
risk; BlackBerry's reliance on suppliers of functional components for its products and
risks relating to its supply chain; BlackBerry's ability to obtain rights to use software or components supplied by third parties; BlackBerry's ability to successfully maintain and enhance its brand;
risks related to government regulations, including regulations relating to encryption technology; BlackBerry's ability to continue to adapt to recent board and management changes and headcount reductions; reliance on strategic alliances with third - party network infrastructure developers, software platform vendors and service platform vendors; BlackBerry's reliance on third - party manufacturers; potential defects and vulnerabilities in BlackBerry's products;
risks related to litigation, including litigation claims arising from BlackBerry's practice of providing forward - looking guidance; potential charges relating to the impairment of intangible assets recorded on BlackBerry's balance sheet;
risks as a result of actions of activist shareholders; government regulation of wireless spectrum and radio frequencies;
risks related to economic and geopolitical conditions;
risks associated with acquisitions; foreign exchange
risks; and difficulties in forecasting BlackBerry's financial results given the rapid technological changes, evolving industry standards, intense competition and short product life
cycles that characterize the wireless communications industry.
Taken together, the chart illustrates that, since the 1980s and when mortgages are not at the center of a recession, both the mortgage
risk premium and the yield curve settle at historically predictable levels at the end of the
business cycle.
Alessio leads GMAG's macro strategy focusing on
business cycle dynamics, global macro regimes, and their impact on asset class
risks and returns.
The Deloitte study also said that Canadian manufacturers could reduce
risk by up to 20 % by exporting, because of the different
business cycles and conditions in different countries.
Our
Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession
risk.
Which signals might point to increased
risk in the economy and markets as the
business cycle matures?
«When you're doing
businesses with corporations, you
risk dealing with long payment
cycles,» says Kendrick.
If you understand
business cycle & the
risks associated with «Manufacturing» sector, you may stay invested in this fund, else it is better to avoid it.
The Firm seeks to invest in high - quality
businesses at low valuations, with the goal of generating outperformance over a full market
cycle while managing the level of
risk.
Sector fund has high
risk profile, invest in it only if you understand the
business cycle of that sector and also about sector specific
risks.
The best
business from both a profit and
risk control standpoint, gets written in this phase of the
cycle Terms and conditions for insurance are tight.
Our
risk assessment for JNJ reflects that its products are largely immune from economic
cycles, that it does not rely on any single product category or customer for sustained growth and that it enjoys competitive advantages owing to its substantial financial resources,
business scale and global sales capabilities.
This strategy is designed to keep an investor's
risk profile aligned with the relative
risks of their underlying holdings as the
business cycle evolves and their lives change.
Additionally, we tend to take a cautious stance on credit
risk in this mature stage of the
business cycle given limited spread - tightening potential.
We can quantify this empirically, for instance, because stocks have historically performed better in the first half of the
business cycle than they have in the second half of the
business cycle when accounting for relative
risks and returns.
Our Countercyclical Indexing ™ strategy establishes a portfolio management approach that is more consistent with the way investors actually perceive
risk over the course of the
business cycle and increases the probability of improving
risk adjusted returns.
Throughout the
business cycle we are constantly updating our financial models to account for changes in the probability of tail
risk events and other inefficiencies that might alter how our clients perceive
risk.
This portfolio always overweights the
risk of purchasing power loss relative to permanent loss, however, by acting in a countercyclical manner the portfolio counterbalances the average investor's tendency to be overweight stocks when they are riskiest late in the
business cycle as well as the tendency to be underweight stocks early in the
business cycle when stocks become less risky.
This means most investors are overweight
risk late in the
business cycle and underweight
risk early in the
cycle.
This helps to keep the investor's
risk profile better aligned with the portfolio's exposure to changing asset class
risks over the course of the
business cycle.
This adaptive approach helps us keep the
risk profiles of our clients better aligned with our portfolio management style as the
business cycle evolves.
This approach helps to create parity between your actual
risk profile and its exposure to asset classes at times in the
business cycle.
Our approach is designed to maintain parity between your
risk profile and its underlying asset holdings over the course of the changes in the
business cycle.
Your actual performance will depend on your personal needs and which strategy we implement for you, but this approach helps to align the client's perception of
risk with that of the underlying portfolio over the course of the changing
business cycle.
Over the course of the
business cycle, however, we hope to generate a
risk adjusted return that is superior to a benchmark portfolio.
This portfolio invests in a globally diversified set of low fee index funds that are designed to be overweight stocks during the
business cycle's expansion phases with a reduced overweight to stock market
risk during the contraction phase of the
business cycle.
But this procyclical or static portfolio allocation will expose investors to high levels of
risk at the riskiest points in the
business cycle because a 60/40 stock / bond portfolio is actually less risky early in the
cycle and more risky late in the
business cycle.
That is, while your
risk profile will remain the same over the course of the
business cycle, the
risk exposure will actually change as various asset classes change in price and expose you to different degrees of
risk.
In other words, the
risk of the 60/40 is not the same in the early part of the
business cycle as it is in the latter portion of the
business cycle.
Orcam Financial Group specializes in constructing diversified, low fee, tax efficient portfolios that match an investor's
risk profile with the cyclical changes in the markets as the
business cycle evolves.
Most importantly, Countercyclical Indexing is a low fee and tax efficient form of asset allocation that tries to capture the market return given an appropriate level of
risk over the course of the
business cycle.
Therefore, it is logical to rebalance portfolios over the course of the
business cycle to account for these changing
risks.
In other words, traditional portfolio theory does not account for the dynamism of the
business cycle which results in portfolios that do not properly account for changing
risks during the course of the
cycle.
But this linear or static portfolio allocation will expose investors to high levels of
risk at the riskiest points in the
business cycle because a 60/40 stock / bond portfolio is actually less risky early in the
cycle and more risky late in the
business cycle.
The low beta, or relative
risk and performance to the market, will show that these stocks tend to either perform better - or at least not as poorly - as cyclical stocks in bad times and will usually not be most investors» focal points during the boom part of the
business cycle when investors are busy chasing technology stocks and high - growth companies.
Generally speaking the longer the term of a bond the greater the sensitivity that bond will have to the movement in interest rates, changes in the credit quality of a company or company
risks associated with the
business cycle of a specific company, sector or economy.