Not exact matches
«If parents use 24 nappies and follow manufacturers» instructions to wash at 60 degrees
C [140 degrees Fahrenheit] using an A-rated washing machine, they will have approximately 24 percent less impact on global
warming than the
report says,» said WEN's Ann Link.
Meanwhile, NOAA researchers» assessment placed 2017 as the third
warmest year,
reporting global average temperatures as 1.51 degrees F (0.84 degrees
C) above average.
If sustained, the recently
reported accelerating rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 indicates we are likely to acheive that projected 3 degree
C warming earlier than once thought.
I hope that innocent bystanders have noticed how useful the betting paradigm has been in generating consensus — me, Chip Knappenberger and the IPCC
report all agree that
warming is unlikely to be greater than 0.325
C / decade in the immediate future (probably «very unlikely», in IPCC - speak).
«The paper
reports that even if humans limit the Earth's
warming to 2 degrees
C (3.8 degrees F), many marine ecosystems, including coral reefs, are still going to suffer,» Mark Eakin, NOAA Coral Reef Watch coordinator and a study coauthor, said.
She just attended the IPCC Scoping Meeting on 1.5 degrees
C of
warming, planning a major
report for 2018.
Clearly, there is very close agreement between the Berkeley analysis and the
warming trends
reported by the major three climate groups, that is a rise of around 0.7 degrees
C since 1957.
The current IPCC
report, for example, limits the natural contribution to global
warming since 1950 to less than plus or minus 0.1 °
C (it might have been negative e.g. because of the fading sun).
If sustained, the recently
reported accelerating rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 indicates we are likely to acheive that projected 3 degree
C warming earlier than once thought.
I hope that innocent bystanders have noticed how useful the betting paradigm has been in generating consensus — me, Chip Knappenberger and the IPCC
report all agree that
warming is unlikely to be greater than 0.325
C / decade in the immediate future (probably «very unlikely», in IPCC - speak).
Both the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite (analyzed by the University of Alabama in Huntsville by John Christy and Roy Spencer) and weather balloon data (trends
reported by a number of researchers, notably Jim Angell at NOAA) have failed to show significant
warming since the satellite record began in late 1978, even though the surface record has been rising at its fastest pace (~ 0.15
C / decade) since instrumental records began.
The latest IPCC
report on climate change notes that our society will likely need net negative emissions by the end of the century to avoid a 2 degree
C warming.
Governments have approved plans for a new UN
report to explore the impacts of
warming of 1.5
C above pre-industrial levels at a meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.
Mind the gap: the $ 1.6 trillion energy transition risk is the first
report to analyse the upstream financial implications for investors of the yawning gap between the Paris Agreement, which pledges to keep climate change well below 2
C above pre-industrial times and aims for 1.5
C, and government policies, which are consistent with 2.7
C of
warming.
I mention this because there is doubt about the 15th March State of the Climate
Report by BOM and CSIRO claimed
warming in some places up to 2 degrees
C in 50 years
As we showed in the second TDTH
report in 2013, unprecedented heat extremes also become very significant in some regions around 1.5
C warming.
All the models used in the IPCC's vast
report last year forecast
warming of at least 2
C if CO2 doubles (up from a 1.5
C minimum rise in the organisation's 2001
report).
For example, referring to the 1979 Charney
report's ECS range of 1.5 to 4.5 K / doubling, they wrote: «Results of most numerical model experiments suggest that a doubling of
C02, if maintained indefinitely, would cause a global surface air
warming of between 1.5
C and 4.5
C.
Specifically, 84 + / - 2 % of respondents agreed that 50 % or more of «global
warming since the mid 20th century» can be attributed to «human induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations»; while 86 + / - 2 % agreed that greenhouse gases had a moderate or strong
warming contribution to the «
reported global
warming of ~ 0.8 degrees
C since pre-industrial times».
Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting
warming to 1.5
C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change
Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5
C and 2
C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5
C global
warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5
C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting
warming to 1.5 °
C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457
-- Ocean
warming is being
reported in the tiniest units possible (joules)-- a unit that means nothing to the general public, but sounds «big» (because there's a bunch of them); if it were
reported in degrees
C (which people can relate to), the
warming would be a few thousandths of a degree per year
It's the only one of the seven whose growth is linear, rising by 7 % for 1.0
C of
warming of the surface air temperature [SAT], and, in part for this reason, is also the only one included in the calculation of the scenarios
reported in AR5 by IPCC.
means that up to 0.3
C of that
warming * could * be «natural», the IPCC
report has already accepted that there must be room for up to 0.3
C cooling should that (potentially) natural variability be reversed.
The oil producing giant last night blocked efforts to include references in the Paris deal to a UN
report that says it would be better to limit global
warming to 1.5
C above pre-industrial levels rather than the current 2
C target.
For contrast, the UNEP Emissions Gap
Report finds that for a least - cost emissions pathway consistent with a likely chance of limiting
warming to 2 degrees
C, emissions are 48 Gt CO2e in 2025 and 42 Gt CO2e in 2030.
Private investors stand to lose $ 4.2 T (# 2.7 T) on the value of their holdings from the impact of climate change by 2100 even if global
warming is held at plus 2 degrees
C, a
report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned.
This illustration, using figures from the most recent 2014 IPCC
report, depicts that because only 800 gigatons of CO2 can be emitted by humanity before creating a 66 % probability that a 2 degree
C warming limit will be exceeded and humans have by 2011 already emitted 530 gigatons of CO2, there are only 270 gigatons of CO2 that may be emitted after 2011 to limit
warming to 2 degrees
C. (For a more detailed explanation of these figures see, Pidcock 2013)
In summary, a strong case can be made that the US emissions reduction commitment for 2025 of 26 % to 28 % clearly fails to pass minimum ethical scrutiny when one considers: (a) the 2007 IPCC
report on which the US likely relied upon to establish a 80 % reduction target by 2050 also called for 25 % to 40 % reduction by developed countries by 2020, and (b) although reasonable people may disagree with what «equity» means under the UNFCCC, the US commitments can't be reconciled with any reasonable interpretation of what «equity» requires, (
c) the United States has expressly acknowledged that its commitments are based upon what can be achieved under existing US law not on what is required of it as a mater of justice, (d) it is clear that more ambitious US commitments have been blocked by arguments that alleged unacceptable costs to the US economy, arguments which have ignored US responsibilities to those most vulnerable to climate change, and (e) it is virtually certain that the US commitments can not be construed to be a fair allocation of the remaining carbon budget that is available for the entire world to limit
warming to 2 °
C.
A new
report published by the Climate Institute says Australia could avoid lengthy heatwaves and help save the Great Barrier Reef by meeting the Paris Agreement's 1.5
C global
warming goal.
From the middle of the 20th century and through the 1970s, it was common for scientists to
report a rapid
warming of «nearly 1 °
C «between about 1890 and 1940 (Agee, 1980), a
warming accompanied by «catastrophic» and «violent» glacier retreat.
Recent IPCC
reports claim that the most probable value of the temperature rise for doubling is ∆ T2 = 3
C. Substituting this value and a
warming of ∆ T = 6
C into Eq.
Design / methodology / approach: The analyses are based on the IPCC's own
reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model - calculated temperatures and the
warming effects of greenhouse gases based on the critical studies of climate sensitivity (
CS).
Now, after NASA's
report showing that September 2016 was 1.13
C hotter than 1880s averages (or 0.91
C hotter than NASA's 20th - century baseline measure), this year is setting up to be the
warmest ever recorded by a wide margin.
However, the IPCC projection to 2030 in the Fourth Assessment
Report (chapter 10 Executive Summary) is for
warming of 0.2 deg
C (not 0.3) per decade.
But it does show that the IPCC forecasts of 0.2
C warming per decade (made both in the AR4 and previous TAR
reports) were incorrect.
The maximal 11
C of centennial
warming they
reported still gets bandied about as a likely possibility.
«We analyzed the climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment
Report, focusing on the projected impacts at 1.5
C and 2
C warming at the regional level.
2014 was not a record for global land areas [4th only] 2014 was not a record for the entire land oceans for Southern Hemisphere (2nd only) It was a record only for Northern Hemisphere oceans SST anomalies and only the North Pacific showed extra
warming mostly as shown on Bob Tisdale's monthly
reports of Ocean SST's The North Pacific SST has risen steadily from an anomaly of about 0.3
C in 2010 to almost 0.7
C in 2014.
I should also have made the point that using the same Figures 4.4 and 4.5 from the referenced
report, that one can conclude most of the HadCRUT4 global average surface temperature
warming observed from 1970 — present was due to NATURAL causes, as 0.3
C of the approx. 0.55
C warming was due to the 62 year natural cycle with amplitude of + / - 0.15
C.
UN draft
report says missing 1.5
C warming target will multiply hunger, migration and conflict, but staying under will require unprecedented global cooperation
The deep Southern Ocean alone is very likely
warming at 0.03
C / decade, for which AR5
reports 48 TW
warming since at least 1992.
Quite clearly the last IPCC
report hadn't claimed 0.2
C / decade
warming over the last 60 years.
The statement comes on the heels of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5), which found that emissions related to human activities must not exceed 1 trillion tonnes
C (1000 PgC) if we are to have a likely chance of limiting
warming to 2 °
C.
The Australian writes: «The 2007 assessment
report said the planet was
warming at a rate of 0.2
C every decade, but according to Britain's The Daily Mail the draft update
report says the true figure since 1951 has been 0.12
C.»
What this means: In their last hugely influential
report in 2007, the IPCC claimed the world was
warming at 0.2
C per decade.
While I am pretty sure IPCC won't repeat the silly mistake of projecting global
warming of 0.2
C per decade for the next two decades (as it did in AR4), it will be interesting to see whether or not IPCC modifies its AR5
report to include the possibility of continued global cooling over the next two or three decades despite unabated human GHG emissions and concentrations expected to reach new record levels.
The UNEP
report is particularly relevant to the short - term situation given that the international community has agreed to limit future
warming to prevent catastrophic
warming to 2 °
C or perhaps 1.5 °
C if later studies demonstrate that a 1.5 °
C warming limit is necessary to prevent catastrophic harms.
Dr Pfister
reported to Hubert Lamb that for several decades prior to 1564 the Swiss climate was on average 0.4
c warmer than today (1990's) In Switzerland, the first particularly cold winters appear to have begun in the 1560s, with cold springs beginning around 1568, and with 1573 the first unusually cold summer (Pfister, 1995).
C warming rate in the 2007
report relates only to the previous 15 years whereas the 0.12
C figure in the forthcoming
report relates to the half - century since 1951.
But the new
report says the observed
warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just 0.05
C per decade - below almost all computer predictions.