This explains the 0.6 C SST anomaly and the 0.8
C global anomaly.
Not exact matches
Even so, the IPCC estimates above indicate: 1) Total Net Atmospheric Carbon Emissions to 2100 will amount to ~ 2050 PgC (or more) on current Trends, 2) A BAU projected estimate would push CO2 to ~ 952 ppm by 2100 (or more), and 3)
Global average temperature increase /
anomaly would be as high as ~ 6.8
C by 2100
(
c) Inter-annual variations in the standard
anomalies of
global mean rain - free days.
It's possible the
global anomaly is around 8 deg
C for the ice cycle.
16 Clifford Mass wrote: «People can understand when you tell them 1
C of an
anomaly is cased by
global warming — it has meaning.»
People can understand when you tell them 1
C of an
anomaly is cased by
global warming — it has meaning.
Most of the images showing the transient changes in
global mean temperatures (GMT) over the 20th Century and projections out to the 21st
C, show temperature
anomalies.
[Response I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here, but if you feel that you can only assess whether temperatures are changing by looking at 30 - year averages, consider the following:
Global mean temperature
anomalies (in degrees
C, relative to 1961 - 90 reference period): 1885 - 1914: -0.35; 1915 - 1944: -0.18; 1945 - 1974: -0.07; 1975 - 2004: +0.21.
«The average
global temperature
anomaly for combined land and ocean surfaces for July (based on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees
C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
(
c) The
global mean (80 ° N to 80 ° S) radiative signature of upper - tropospheric moistening is given by monthly time series of combinations of satellite brightness temperature
anomalies (°
C), relative to the period 1982 to 2004, with the dashed line showing the linear trend of the key brightness temperature in °
C per decade.
Having established that the
global temperature monthly
anomalies plummeted by -0.75
C in the last 10 months using RSS data, can you explain the mechanism for that cooling?
Time series of annual average
global integrals of upper ocean heat content
anomaly (1021 J, or ZJ) for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 0 — 300 m, (
c) 0 — 700 m, and (d) 0 — 1800 m. Thin vertical lines denote when the coverage (Fig. 3) reaches 50 % for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 100 — 300 m, (
c) 300 — 700 m, and (d) 900 — 1800 m. From Lyman & Johnson (2013)
NASA's Schmidt «extrapolated» warm temperature figures across a «huge area of below normal temperatures» and «massively skewed his
global average
anomaly using a large area of fake +6
C anomaly.»
What is consistent about the 2.3 W / m ^ 2 number is that this also happens to be the radiative balance for the average
global anomaly of 0.8
C, which includes pro-rated SST and land forcing according to the areal fractions.
This is based on the high correlation (r = 0.88) of the observed
Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented by cyclic global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as shown
Global Mean Temperature
Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented by cyclic
global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as shown
global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg
C per century as shown below:
Statistical significance of recent trend: If I control for ENSO using the simple tercile technique illustrated in my figure, the residual
global temperature
anomalies for the period 1997 - 2011 have a trend of 0.012
C / yr, and that trend has a one - sided p - value of 0.0016.
Add to that scaled monthly sunspot data to introduce the 0.1 deg
C variations is surface temperature resulting from the solar cycle and add scaled monthly Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depth data for dips and rebounds due to volcanic eruptions, and
global surface temperature
anomalies can be reproduced quite well.
That is, from 1916 to 1946,
global SST
anomalies rose 0.39 deg
C (based on local linear trends).
Then using an estimate of 14.0
C for the
global temperature average of the 20th century, 12 - month absolute temperatures were calculated from the calculated 12 - month average
anomalies.
and the area of the earth poleward from the 60 latitudes constitutes ~; 13.5 % of the globe, then this area is responsible for 0.135 x 3.0 = 0.4
C degrees contributed to
global temperature
anomaly.
At the same time, the
global temperature
anomaly increases by 3.3 degrees
C.
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as
anomalies based on 1961 — 1990 temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](
c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
AND THAT 1997/98 EL NINO WAS CALLED THE EL NINO OF THE CENTURY The 1997/98 El Nino was strong enough to temporarily raise
Global Lower Troposphere Temperature
anomalies ~ 0.7 deg
C, as illustrated in Figure 4.
If the
anomaly decreases by 0.5
c in the tropics and increases by the same amount at the poles is it right that the data sets would show no change in «
global warming»?
And since 2000, we have a nearly constant
global mean temperature
anomaly of 0.4 deg
C as shown in the following plot.
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Directorate, «
Global Temperature
Anomalies in.01
C,» updated January 2002, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt.
Update: The September 2013 GISS
global temperature
anomaly is +0.74 deg
C.
Update: The September 2013 NCDC
global land plus sea surface temperature
anomaly is +0.64 deg
C.
4) With further 10 years of human emission of CO2, since 2000, there was little warming with average
global mean temperature
anomaly flat at about 0.4 deg
C as shown in the following chart.
Update: The September 2013 HADCRUT4
global temperature
anomaly is +0.53 deg
C.
2014 was not a record for
global land areas [4th only] 2014 was not a record for the entire land oceans for Southern Hemisphere (2nd only) It was a record only for Northern Hemisphere oceans SST
anomalies and only the North Pacific showed extra warming mostly as shown on Bob Tisdale's monthly reports of Ocean SST's The North Pacific SST has risen steadily from an
anomaly of about 0.3
C in 2010 to almost 0.7
C in 2014.
They fitted a simple (ish) climate model to these most recent and comprehensive proxy syntheses, and came up with a
global mean temperature
anomaly of only 3
C (with an uncertainty range of 1.7 - 3.7
C), which is far milder than most previous estimates.
The April UAH
anomaly was plus 0.12 degrees
C — and as I keep saying the month to month variations in
global surface temperature are ENSO for the most part — and marches to a different drum entirely.
Preliminary runs show that the new mean annual cycle will be about 0.1
C warmer each month for the
global averages, meaning all monthly
anomalies will appear to decrease by about 0.1 when the new 30 - year base period is used (see below).
As David Appel says, Broeker made his predictions in 1975 and if I am interpreting his table right, said that 2010 would have a
global temperature
anomaly of 1.1
C and CO2 of 403 PPM.
Overall the
global temperature
anomaly is about 0.8
C which is derived as a 70/30 ocean / land split.
If the 0.6
C global mean
anomaly change means a 2 ppmv change in CO2, and that is accumulated over 40 years, wouldn't that give an 80 ppmv total?
The overall effect on
global temperature is small, however (Figure 2.7
c) The five warmest
global optimally averaged years since the beginning of the record in 1861 all occurred in the 1990s with 1998 having the warmest
anomaly (0.55 °
C).
«Overall my best estimate of the 2014 annual
global surface temperature
anomaly is 0.626 + / - 0.05
C above the 1961 - 1990 average, making it likely to be the hottest year on record after the 0.547
C anomaly in 2010.»
Current UAH
Global Anomaly is 0.49
C and trend is 0.14
C / decade (where Monckton gets 1.4
C / century).