People and the places they care about are currently being impacted by the 0.6 - 0.7 degrees
C of warming the world has already experienced over the past six decades.
Not exact matches
A U.K. - based Antarctic research project called Project MIDAS monitoring the effects
of climate change on an ice shelf called Larsen
C announced that a vast rift in the rapidly
warming pole has split entirely and created a brand new iceberg — the third largest in the
world.
Despite all these variables, scientists from Svante Arrhenius to those on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have noted that doubling preindustrial concentrations
of CO2 in the atmosphere from 280 parts per million (ppm) would likely result in a
world with average temperatures roughly 3 degrees
C warmer.
The group also used a general circulation model to predict what might be expected to happen in the
world's wine locales in the next 50 years and determined that an average additional
warming of two degrees
C may occur.
Without any action, the
world is on track to achieve at least 4 degrees
C warming of global average temperatures by 2100, as the
world hits 450 parts - per - million
of greenhouse gases in 2030 and goes on to put out enough greenhouse gas pollution to achieve as much as 1300 ppm by 2100.
The Montreal Protocol has a proven record, and an HFC amendment could avoid 0.5
C of warming by the end
of the century,» he wrote, adding, «It would also show the
world that we are ready for a new chapter in the climate fight.
«Once the
world has
warmed 4 degrees
C -LSB-(7.2 degrees F)-RSB- conditions will be so different from anything we can observe today (and still more different from the last ice age) that it is inherently hard to say when the
warming will stop,» physicists Myles Allen and David Frame
of the University
of Oxford wrote in an editorial accompanying the article.
Can you summarize current state
of the
world regarding research on expected ENSO behavior in
warming climate, i.e.: a) About the same b) Expect distribution
of La Nina / El Nino / Neutrals to change
c) Insufficent data to be able to say much
«Even 1.5
C warming will cause irreparable harm to coral reefs in many parts
of the
world.
However, the research shows that even 1.5
C of additional
warming could spell disaster for much
of the
world's coral, says Prof Jean - Pierre Gattuso, from the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), who was not involved in the research.
The team also have a separate project, called Climate feedbacks from wetlands and permafrost thaw in a
warming world (CLIFFTOP), which aims to quantity the amount
of methane likely to be released from thawing permafrost methane emissions under 1.5
C and 2
C scenarios.
Frozen B + Philomena B Nebraska A - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
C + Best Man Holiday D + (Kyle) Blue is the
Warmest Color
C + The Book Thief
C + Diana D Thor: The Dark
World B Dallas Buyers Club A + 12 Years a Slave A + Last Vegas D + About Time B Ender's Game
C Man
of Tai Chi
C +
Can you summarize current state
of the
world regarding research on expected ENSO behavior in
warming climate, i.e.: a) About the same b) Expect distribution
of La Nina / El Nino / Neutrals to change
c) Insufficent data to be able to say much
It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations
of (a) some renewed (or continuation
of) slight cooling
of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g., from volcanic or solar activity variations; (b) an abrupt
warming due to the effect
of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn by (
c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands
of years.»
Let's see... many models show that aerosols could have been artificially keeping the
world's average surface temperature cooler by about 3 - 5 degrees
C from 1900 - 2000 --(sulfate aerosols certainly have some certifiable cooling effects cancelling out the
warming effects
of CO2).
If the oceans aren't «
warmed» by LW radiation then how come they are not significantly cooler than we see, closer to the -18
C of a non ghg
world?
Recent independent analyses
of current mitigation proposals on the table in Copenhagen by Nicholas Stern, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys, Climate Analytics, the Sustainability Institute (
C - ROADS), the European Climate Foundation and ClimateWorks (Project Catalyst), all point to the same conclusion: the negotiations must deliver the high end
of current proposals and stretch beyond them, if the
world is to have a reasonable chance
of containing
warming to below 2 °
C above pre-industrial levels, or the 1.5 °
C goal
of many developing nations.
That a
warmer world was bad for humanity -(that was not really science based, but more
of conjecture)
c.
«The entire satellite data for the whole
world shows a
warming during the 1979 - 2002 period
of just 0.005 º
C by year, or 0.5 º
C in a century.
Generally, the remaining uncorrected effect from urban heat islands is now believed to be less than 0.1
C, and in some parts
of the
world it may be more than fully compensated for by other changes in measurement methods.4 Nevertheless, this remains an important source
of uncertainty.The
warming trend observed over the past century is too large to be easily dismissed as a consequence
of measurement errors.
The uncertainty is whether this, when applied to the real
world, is a trivial effect (say the lowest outlier position), if there is a couple
of degrees
warming coming (an average position, where
warming will have some observable effects within a decade or two) or 5 + deg
C (the highest outlier position, where significant and rapid change would occur, and where detrimental effects probably significantly outweigh beneficial ones).
Last year the
world was 0.62
C hotter than the 20th Century average (13.9 °
C)-- that already includes part
of the
warming since preindustrial times.
«The message is already clear, that if the
world does want to strive to limit
warming to 1.5
C or less, we don't have very much
of the carbon budget left.»
All joking about the «end
of the
world» aside, I believe what we are seeing here should give you good reasons to re-evaluate your 4.3
C warming by 2100 horror story from the earlier thread.
It's the kind
of abnormal event we've now come to expect in a
world driven 1
C +
warmer than 1880s levels by a merciless burning
of fossil fuels that just won't quit.
We have estimated an increase
of 24 X 10 ^ 22 J repre - senting a volume mean
warming of 0.09
C of the 0 — 2000 m layer
of the
World Ocean.
One widely - used model assumes that economic growth rates will not be affected by climate change, thereby predicting that half
of the
world's economic activity would continue after a whopping 18 degrees
C of global
warming.
Even if «catastrophic» AGW is correct and we do
warm another 3
C over the next century, if it stabilized the Earth in
warm phase and prevented or delayed the Earth's transition into cold phase it would be worth it because the cold phase transition would kill billions
of people, quite rapidly, as crops failed throughout the temperate breadbasket
of the
world.
But to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change and keep the
world on a path that could limit global
warming to 2 degrees
C, IEA projects that an additional 18 percent, or $ 5 trillion, in cumulative investment would be needed through 2035.
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) take underlying socioeconomic factors, such as population and economic growth, as well as a climate target — such as limiting
warming to 1.5
C — and estimate what changes could happen to energy production, use, and emissions in different regions
of the
world to reach the targets in the most cost - effective way.
It has to be kept in mind that the equatorial Pacific is part
of the
world and therefore will have been affected by forcing just like everywhere else, so the overall
warming in POGA -
C is very likely at least partly a forced response.
Presumably they would dismiss the danger because a) no - one could prove how much exact
warming would be caused and b) they'd argue a
warmer world is better and
of course
c) countries are free to inject anything they want into the global atmosphere.
As the solar activity (total solar irradiance) increased, so did global temperatures [the HADCRU global
warming from 1850 to 2000 is.55
C] and the
warming commenced well before the tremndous increase
of CO2 emissions after
World War II.
In summary, a strong case can be made that the US emissions reduction commitment for 2025
of 26 % to 28 % clearly fails to pass minimum ethical scrutiny when one considers: (a) the 2007 IPCC report on which the US likely relied upon to establish a 80 % reduction target by 2050 also called for 25 % to 40 % reduction by developed countries by 2020, and (b) although reasonable people may disagree with what «equity» means under the UNFCCC, the US commitments can't be reconciled with any reasonable interpretation
of what «equity» requires, (
c) the United States has expressly acknowledged that its commitments are based upon what can be achieved under existing US law not on what is required
of it as a mater
of justice, (d) it is clear that more ambitious US commitments have been blocked by arguments that alleged unacceptable costs to the US economy, arguments which have ignored US responsibilities to those most vulnerable to climate change, and (e) it is virtually certain that the US commitments can not be construed to be a fair allocation
of the remaining carbon budget that is available for the entire
world to limit
warming to 2 °
C.
One study estimates that there are likely to be places on Earth where unprotected humans without cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if global average surface temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 °
C).16 With
warming of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 °
C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half
of the
world's people now live could become intolerable.7
Should a developed nation such as the United States which has much higher historical and per capita emissions than other nations be able to justify its refusal to reduce its ghg emissions to its fair share
of safe global emissions on the basis
of scientific uncertainty, given that if the mainstream science is correct, the
world is rapidly running out
of time to prevent
warming above 2 degrees
C, a temperature limit which if exceeded may cause rapid, non-linear climate change.
The average temperature in the first six months
of 2016 was 1.3
C warmer than the pre-industrial era in the late 19th century, according to Nasa — remarkably close to the 1.5
C target agreed by the
world's governments at the Paris climate talks to attempt to stave off the worst effects
of climate change.
And so President Obama admitted that: (a) climate change is a civilization challenging problem with dire potential consequences for nations and vulnerable people around the
world, (b) the
world is running out
of time to prevent catastrophic
warming, and, (
c) the United States has responsibility for causing the problem.
Scientists and politicians are keen to hold global
warming to 1.5
C above pre-industrial levels because they fear that a
world that
warms to such a level will experience severe loss
of ice, particularly from Greenland's massive shield
of glaciers, and that the melting will in turn trigger considerable rises in sea levels.
In so doing, the members
of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) could cut global
warming by 0.5
C by 2050, which could give the
world breathing space from projections
of 4
C to 6
C of warming later this century.
These omissions included: (a) the lack
of recognition that dependence on natural gas as a bridge fuel for reducing the US carbon footprint raises several ethical questions, a matter reviewed here in detail, (b) acknowledgment
of the US special responsibility for climate change for its unwillingness to take action on climate change for over 20 years since it ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, see, The
World Waits In Vain For US Ethical Climate Change Leadership As the World Warms, and, (c) failing to communicate the extreme urgency of quickly and significantly reducing ghg emissions in the next few years to give the world any hope of avoiding dangerous climate change, see, On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding To Climate Change on the Basis of Eq
World Waits In Vain For US Ethical Climate Change Leadership As the
World Warms, and, (c) failing to communicate the extreme urgency of quickly and significantly reducing ghg emissions in the next few years to give the world any hope of avoiding dangerous climate change, see, On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding To Climate Change on the Basis of Eq
World Warms, and, (
c) failing to communicate the extreme urgency
of quickly and significantly reducing ghg emissions in the next few years to give the
world any hope of avoiding dangerous climate change, see, On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding To Climate Change on the Basis of Eq
world any hope
of avoiding dangerous climate change, see, On the Extraordinary Urgency
of Nations Responding To Climate Change on the Basis
of Equity.
Because that upper T
warming will only occur when the
world is
warming, most
of the 1.2
C would theoretically occur in the fastest
warming decades.
Therefore, the cost
of abating all
of the 0.15
C °
of warming that the IPCC predicted would occur between 2011 and 2020 by using measures as cost - effective as Australia's carbon dioxide tax would be $ 309 trillion, 57.4 %
of global GDP to 2020, or $ 44,000 per head
of the
world's population.
(Dr Eric Rignot, one
of the
world's foremost glacial scientists, discusses the potential for multimeter sea level rise due to presently projected levels
of warming in the range
of 1.5 to 2
C by mid to late Century.)
Climate change raises questions
of both distributive and retributive justice because: (a) Climate change is a problem caused by some people that inflicts harm on others; (b) Some
of the poorest people in the
world are extremely vulnerable to its impacts and can do little to protect themselves from those impacts; (
c) The adverse impacts to some
of the
world's poorest people are likely to be catastrophic; and (d) Huge reductions from status quo emissions are necessary to prevent catastrophic
warming.
Every year, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) brings together scientists from around the
world to measure the size
of the greenhouse gas (GHG) «emissions gap,» the difference between the emissions level countries have pledged to achieve under international agreements and the level consistent with limiting
warming to well below 2 degrees
C (3.6 degrees F).
The MacKenzie River region, which supports one
of the
world's last major wild rivers, has
warmed by 3.1 ° F (1.7 °
C) over the past century.2, 3 This
warming has endangered the long - term stability
of much
of the permafrost — the frozen mix
of rock, soil, and ice that underlies and surrounds the river basin3, 3 — raising the risk
of erosion, flooding, landslides, and other significant changes to the landscape.2, 3,4,5,6
Meanwhile, greenhouse gas reduction commitments under Paris are setting the
world on a path to about 3
C warming by the end
of this Century.
If one picks 1998 as the «start date» for the current cycle
of «lack
of warming», one arrives at an essentially flat trend (Met Office tells us: «Our records for the past 15 years suggest the
world has
warmed by about 0.051
C over that period»).
The practical meaning
of this budget is that when the 250 gigtatons
of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions have been emitted the entire
world's ghg emissions must be zero to give reasonable hope
of limiting
warming to the 2 degrees
C.