I'm one of those who doesn't see Ryan as an elite QB, but I needed only to watch a couple of
CIN games to quickly appreciate what we have in Ryan.
Not exact matches
The skinny: - season opener at home v
CIN — as usual - season finale @
CIN — as usual - MNF Week 10 (Nov 11) @ ATL - TNF Week 3 (Sep 20) v CLE - SNF Week 7 (Oct 21) @ PIT - BYE Week 9 (Nov 4)- Road stretch: Weeks 6 - 10, 4 of 5
games on the road - Home stretch Weeks 11 - 16 4 of 6
games at home - Boss fight stretch: Weeks 4 - 7 (@LAC, v OAK, @KC, @PIT)- no 3 -
game home or road stretch
Because of a rougher - looking schedule than in years (I mean, who really knows until halfway through the season — it was a big surprise to most that the AFCW wasn't tougher in 2017 for instance, or that the NYG would suck so epically), and no Shazier, and general reversion to the mean, and no particular reason to think Ben will be available for every
game... I'll say 10 -5-1 with losses @ Tampa, @
Cin, Carolina, @ Denver, LAC.
-- There are two
games in which the majority of bets are on the under: 73 % on BAL / TEN and 52 % for
CIN / JAX.
You had your
games that hit right around the number set, with
CIN and JAX pushing, hitting the -10 number set before the
game, as well as the CLE / TB and NYJ / KC
games coming down to final drives to decide the winner.
For the
Cin / Ind
game, the Bengals +3 (receiving 16 % of spread bets) have value due to our 80/20 betting system, but it looks like oddsmakers must be receiving a fairly even distribution of money since that line hasn't moved despite this one - sided betting.
And... if the lack of a MNF
game was the price of getting rid of the «
CIN to sart and finish the season & a PIT Xmas
game» routine, I saw it's well worth it