Ray (7): I strongly agree, but I find this is a non-trivial challenge in climate communication, namely getting newcomers to understand that the current situation is quite urgent (current and locked - in emissions, long
CO2 atmospheric lifetime, feedbacks, etc.) but that there's still a huge range of possible future outcomes.
Not exact matches
The seasonal cycle in
atmospheric CO2 shows that the
lifetime of a
CO2 molecule in the air before it is exchanged with another in the land biosphere is about 12 years.
However, climate response time is surely less than the
atmospheric lifetime of the human - caused perturbation of
CO2.
But this is silly, since the
atmospheric lifetime of aerosols is just a matter of days, so once we stop burning coal, as we eventually must, the aerosols disappear quickly, unmasking the pent - up warming due to all the extra
CO2 we emitted by not switching from coal to natural gas.
I think I know what you mean here but in the context of the previous Much Ado about Methane article with discussion of the difference between
atmospheric lifetime of a
CO2 molecule vs.
lifetime of an increase in concentration, this could also be put more clearly.
The IPCC have modelled that
atmospheric CO2 has a
lifetime of 50 - 100 years [1].
By using dual radioactive tracers with differing
lifetimes, Wilson et al. [2017] found short term increases in CH4 and
CO2 release during periods of thaw in a discontinuous permafrost were generally offset by long - term accumulation of peat in the ensuing millennia, leading the regions to continue to be net carbon sinks with negative
atmospheric radiative forcing, given the long life - time of
atmospheric CO2.
Common measures of the
atmospheric lifetime of
CO2, including the e-folding time scale, disregard the long tail.
However, there is ample empirical evidence that the
atmospheric CO2 lifetime is quite short — 5 to 10 years.
Here, we review the past literature on the
atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel
CO2 and its impact on climate, and we present initial results from a model intercomparison project on this topic.
«scientists have assumed» «The climate models assume» «assumption that Natural
CO2 is totally fixed and unchanging» «if you assume a long
lifetime for
atmospheric CO2 ″ «falsification of the basic assumption» «it requires assumptions that violate empirical knowledge» «assumed so that the ice cores and modern measurements fit together» «arbitrary and unjustified assumption»
Essenhigh (2009) points out that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in their first report (Houghton et al., 1990) gives an
atmospheric CO2 residence time (
lifetime) of 50 - 200 years [as a «rough estimate»].
Certainly,
CO2 and other anthropogenic GHG emissions are a potent driver of warming, with water serving in a feedback role due to its short
atmospheric lifetime.
CH4 is relatively short - lived in the atmosphere (
atmospheric lifetime on the order of a decade) relative to
CO2 (
atmospheric lifetime on the order of centuries) and therefore has a higher global warming potential over the shorter 20 - year time horizon (86 versus 34; Myhre et al. 2013).
The exception is nitrous oxide (N2O), which has an
atmospheric lifetime comparable to, albeit different from, that of
CO2 and, crucially, longer than the response time of the physical climate system.
At the end of The Long Thaw David Archer calculated the GHG warming induced from burning a gallon of gasoline over the
atmospheric lifetime of the
CO2 («bad energy») and compared it to the «good energy» we get from burning the gasoline today.
«Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of
atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective
lifetime of tens of thousands of years».
Sadly, you have conflated the average time that an individual
CO2 molecule stays in the atmosphere before being replaced (called airborne residence time) with the time it takes the
CO2 concentration to return to pre-pulse values after the addition of a pulse of
CO2 to the atmosphere (called e-folding time or pulse decay time or
atmospheric lifetime).
Revelle & Suess (1957) calculated from data for the trace
atmospheric molecule 14
CO2, containing the radioactive isotope14C, that the amount of
atmospheric «
CO2 derived from industrial fuel combustion» would be only 1.2 % for an
atmospheric CO2 lifetime of 5 years, and 1.73 % for a
CO2 lifetime of 7 years (Segalstad, 1998).
... Essenhigh (2009) points out that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in their first report (Houghton et al., 1990) gives an
atmospheric CO2 residence time (
lifetime) of 50 - 200 years....
CO2 concentrations are relatively well - distributed in the atmosphere, because its
atmospheric lifetime is long compared to the time it takes to mix the atmosphere.
The temperature change due to the oxidized
CO2 grows but also subsides more slowly than that from CH4, due to the weaker greenhouse forcing but longer
atmospheric lifetime of the
CO2.
[10] In particular, methane has a short
atmospheric lifetime, whereas N2O and many F - gases have
lifetimes comparable to
CO2 or longer.
Both radioactive and stable carbon isotopes show that the real
atmospheric CO2 residence time (
lifetime) is only about 5 years, and that the amount of fossil - fuel
CO2 in the atmosphere is maximum 4 %.
Examples of the
atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to
CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the following table:
[39] A 2014 analysis, however, states that although methane's initial impact is about 100 times greater than that of
CO2, because of the shorter
atmospheric lifetime, after six or seven decades, the impact of the two gases is about equal, and from then on methane's relative role continues to decline.