It is well documented that global temperature acceleration has significantly paused since 1998, despite the global
CO2 emissions growth rate easily exceeding the business - as - usual (BAU) scenarios presented by NASA's James Hansen way back in 1988.
Scenario B called for a reduction in
CO2 emissions growth rate (to 1.0 % in 1990, 0.5 % in 2000 and 0.0 % in 2010).
Reality was
a CO2 emissions growth rate of 1.9 %
Scenario A called for a constant
CO2 emissions growth rate of 1.5 % p.a. from 1988.
manacker,
the CO2 emission growth rate has held steady at 2 % per year, higher than the population growth rate.
Yet the UN's Paris2015 proposed deep cuts in «dangerous» global
CO2 emission growth rates will only delay «climate doomsday» by a laughable 8 months.
Not exact matches
At the current
rate of
growth,
CO2 emissions from shipping will double by 2050.
Coupled with an
emissions growth rate of 3.3 percent — triple the
growth rate of the 1990s — the atmospheric burden is now rising by nearly two parts per million of
CO2 a year, the fastest
growth rate since 1850, the international team of researchers reports in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.
But the inventories showed a constant
rate of
emissions over the Salt Lake Valley, failing to capture the high
CO2 growth rate in suburban areas.
CO2 growth rates (CEI, p. 11): arguments about what
growth rates for
CO2 emissions that some models use are besides the point of what the science says about the climate sensitivity of the earth system (
emissions growth rates are if anything an economic question).
Anthropogenic
CO2 emissions are presently increasing every year at an accelerating
rate, and it is extremely unlikely that humanity will collectively do what is necessary to not only stop that
growth in
CO2 emissions, but reverse it, and then reduce
emissions by 80 percent or more within 5 to 10 years, which is what mainstream climate scientists say is needed to avoid the worst outcomes of anthropogenic global warming.
# 11 Thomas said EIA's International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) Reference case projects that energy - related
CO2 emissions will grow 0.6 % per year from 2015 to 2040, a slower
rate of
growth than the 1.8 % per year experienced from 1990 to 2015.
So if, hypothetically, human activities had instead cut
CO2 emissions and increased
CO2 SOC / Vegetation by a combined amount of 2.2 GtC / year evenly across every month of 2017 then the Annual Mean
Growth Rate for 2017 would have been about -0.27 PPM / Yr.
In addition, we consider temperature dependent natural
emission and absorption
rates, by which the paleoclimatic
CO2 variations and the actual
CO2 growth rate can well be explained.
First, you have the socio - economic uncertainties (which dictate
emissions and
CO2 growth rates, etc) and is mostly determined by human political choices.
If Dr. Hansen never imagined Scenario A as being a real possibility for the next 20 years, I guess indicated by his description «Scenario A, since it is exponential, must eventually be on the high side of reality in view of finite resource constraints and environmental concerns, even though the
growth of
emissions in Scenario A (~ 1.5 % yr - 1) is less than the
rate typical of the past century (~ 4 % yr - 1)» then his subsequent comment (PNAS, 2001) «Second, the IPCC includes
CO2 growth rates that we contend are unrealistically large» seems to indicate that Dr. Hansen doesn't support some of the more extreme SRES scenarios.
(That would mean that a 50 % reduction in
CO2 emissions would have no effect on the
rate of
growth of atmospheric
CO2).
In fact the historic increase in
CO2 emissions has been much slower than the increase in GDP (and slower than the population
growth rate, as well, as pointed out above).
Interestingly, during this period the atmospheric levels of
CO2 (black) grew at a much faster
rate than the
growth of human
emissions (red).
We're not likely to see such concentrations in our lifetimes at current
rates of
growth of
CO2 emission, so maybe it's not our problem.
Reality is that the
rate of global annual
emissions of
CO2 can not be stabilized until the
growth in the
rate of global annual
emissions ceases; and, the
growth is occurring almost exclusively in Asia.
Lowering the
emissions will slow down the
CO2 growth rate, but not stop it.
Most agree that we will see a
growth from today's 7 billion to 10 to 10.5 billion by 2100, which would represent a
growth rate of one - fourth that seen in the second half of the 20th century (when the
CO2 emissions grew exponentially).
The annualised average
growth rate in global
CO2 emissions over the last three years of the credit crunch, including a 1 % increase in 2008 when the first impacts became visible, is 1.7 %, almost equal to the long - term annual average of 1.9 % for the preceding two decades back to 1990.
Flatly assuming that human
CO2 emissions are going to continue at the same exponential
rate when human population
growth is expected to decline sharply to one - fourth the past
rate is stupid.
It ignores two real physical constraints on human
CO2 emissions (plus resulting warming) in the future: — changes in human population
growth rates — total carbon contained in remaining fossil fuel reserves
While the above analysis yields good results for by tying past climate change to increases in human
CO2 emissions, it should be cautioned that the suggested exponential time relation is not suitable for projecting the future over longer time periods, because of possible changes in human population
growth rates and absolute limitations on carbon available in remaining fossil fuels.
I'm sure you will agree that future human
CO2 emissions will in some way be linked to future human population
growth rates, i.e. if population grows rapidly humans will emit more
CO2 in the future than if population grows slowly..
You have yet to respond specifically to my critique that you left out a key parameter when it comes to projecting future human
emissions of
CO2, namely the
rate of
growth of human population (who are emitting this
CO2).
Energy - related
CO2 emissions from OECD countries are projected to be flat from 2015 to 2040 in the IEO2017 Reference case, slightly lower than the annual
rate of
growth from 1990 to 2015 when OECD
CO2 emissions increased 0.3 % per year.
Sorry, but your calculations for
CO2 growth are nonsense — you are comparing the
rate of
growth in population to the
growth in the absolute amount of
CO2 in the atmosphere, but you should instead be comparing it with the
rate of
growth of our annual
emissions.
This replacement hypothesis is strongly opposed by the alarmists who regard
CO2 as a «pollutant» whose
emissions must be controlled supposedly to reduce the
rate of
growth of if not reduce atmospheric
CO2 levels.
The study also predicts that global
CO2 emissions have risen by 3 per cent in 2010, a return to the high
growth rates of
emissions between 2000 and 2008.
India itself does not yet publish timely estimates of national
CO2 emissions or
growth rates.
Going back an additional 150 years, this graph shows the annual
growth rate (AGR, i.e. CAGR exclusively for one - year intervals, no need for compounding) in
CO2 emissions from the same types of fossil fuel (including oil field and refinery flares and cement production), for every year from 1850 to 2008.
The observations of figure 17 - F dispel the myth that all the increase of the
CO2 of the air is from anthropic origin; the anthropic
emissions remaining in the air for a 5 years life time have surged since 2003 while the overall the
CO2 growth rate has been slowly decreasing!
From 2010 to 2040, the Outlook shows the
growth rate of global
CO2 emissions will be about half that of energy demand.
Importantly, the scientists recognize that «atmospheric
growth rates have deviated significantly from predictions of a linear model of atmospheric
CO2 concentrations and anthropogenic
emissions since 2002,» underscoring the imprecision of computer models for predicting climate change.
Only the
growth rate in terms of coal energy content is relevant for calculating
CO2 emissions, so the disagreement does not affect
emission estimates.
But even today, with human
emissions causing
CO2 to reach 400 ppm plants are still restricted in their
growth rate, which would be much higher if
CO2 were at 1000 - 2000 ppm.
OR, mosh, we could humbly recognize that human
emissions (for whatever reason) don't effect the carbon
growth rate anyway... The
CO2 growth rate has indeed been tracking with temperature since the inception of the MLO data set well over have a century ago.
The Mauna Loa
CO2 growth rate has been basically constant since at least 1993, while our
emission rate has increased dramatically.
In fact the
CO2 increase has been roughly linear since the 1950's, with the 1993 - 2010
rate only slightly higher than the preceding years, while our
emissions have seen strongly nonlinear
growth.
My conclusion is that in spite of many opposite statements the very robust relationship between
CO2 emissions and the
rate of economic
growth can't be disputed, at least in a relevant and meaningful time horizon.
The chart on left plots the most up - to - date 15 - year average
growth rates of
CO2 emissions versus the global economy 15 - year average
growth rates.
(Top) Fossil fuel and cement
CO2 emissions by category (Bottom) Fossil fuel and cement
CO2 emissions,
CO2 emissions from net land use change (mainly deforestation), the atmospheric
CO2 growth rate, the ocean
CO2 sink and the residual land sink which represents the sink of anthropogenic
CO2 in natural land ecosystems.
«Ross Garnaut estimated yesterday that his proposals for deep cuts in
CO2 emissions would reduce the
growth rate by around 0.1 per cent»
Ross Garnaut estimated yesterday that his proposals for deep cuts in
CO2 emissions would reduce the
growth rate by around 0.1 per cent, and all serious analyses produce similar numbers.
Given the substantial
growth of energy consumption in China, it seems likely that when the global economy improves, the
rate of
CO2 emissions may grow even faster than projected in some of the middle range scenarios.
The largest
growth of global
CO2 emissions in thirty years occurred between 2012 - 2014, growing at a
rate of 2.25 ppm for each of the three years.