I have to check the book, but I think
the CO2 gets to the surface even without the pumped upwelling.
Not exact matches
My main problem with that study is that the weather models don't use any forcings at all — no changes in ozone,
CO2, volcanos, aerosols, solar etc. — and so while some of the effects of the forcings might be captured (since the weather models assimilate satellite data etc.), there is no reason
to think that they
get all of the signal — particularly for near
surface effects (tropospheric ozone for instance).
Other factors would include: — albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming
to the
surface...); — direct effect of
CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water
getting under parts of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
They don't have
to be scientists
to understand that the higher energy waves of visible light from the Sun can penetrate through
CO2, H2O, CH4, NOZ etal in the atmosphere, but the lower energy radiation of infra - red waves, from Earth's
surface, have problems
getting back out through these molecules, and a new energy balance has
to be established in the form of rising temperature.
A thermometer on the
surface of the Earth, exposed
to the Sun, will not
get hotter just because you increase the concentration of
CO2 between it and the Sun.
Co2 can't cause such a flow, it will off course heat the
surface first and flow of heat
to the sub-
surface will lag over years, decades and even centuries (not sure why 21 years
gets a special mention?)
If the sun suddenly shut off, the earth would cool down quickly, and
get so cold that the greenhouse gases (most, if not all; certainly water vapor and
CO2 - methane freezes at 91 degrees k or -182 deg C) that slow the loss of heat
to space would condense out, making the equilibrium
surface temperature even colder.
The question is how much
CO2 gets transported
to the depths (where it would indeed be difficult
to sample it) and how much stays near the
surface.
What I'm thinking is that the primary way that the energy captured by
CO2 gets dissipated is not radiation, partly back
to the
surface, but primarily upwards convention as the kinetic transfer between gas molecules moves the heat rapidly throughout the atmosphere.
This would cause most of
surface to become dark with little sunlight
getting to surface - the atmosphere would cool and
CO2 would snow or rain out.
If you take
surface Tmin and compare
to SST, you
get the ~ 1.6
to 2.0 gain but that started well before
CO2 was a factor.
The anthropogenic influence on atmospheric
CO2 is about as solid as science
gets, supported by multiple lines of evidence — simple accounting, ocean acidification, ocean
CO2 increasing at the
surface (by Salby it would have
to be decreasing), decreasing atmospheric O2, isotopic balances, etc..
The immediate question is how much
CO2 dissolves in the oceans and how long it takes
to get from
surface to deep waters.
In consequence of that absorption of
CO2 from atmosphere
to sea
surface sinks
gets slower which makes more
CO2 from total
CO2 emissions stay in atmosphere; e.g. comments https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992; and https://judithcurry.com/2013/01/16/hansen-on-the-standstill/#comment-287036.
In the former, we try
to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and
get it back in the ground; or we shunt
CO2 aside at the smokestack before it
gets to the atmosphere, and bury or store it; or we promote algae blooms that absorb
CO2 at the ocean
surface and then die off and carry it
to the ocean floor.
That the climate models are remarkably close
to the observed temperature trend over the recent decade, taking into consideration all relevant factors, is an explicit demonstration that we can
get this temporary
surface temperature slowdown even when the Earth's climate sensitivity is around 3 °C per doubling of
CO2.
I'm not able
to find any peer reviewed papers which derive this logarithmic
CO2 versus temperature rise formula from basic physics, nor am I able
to find papers which prove that climate sensitivity is a global constant regardless of local
surface temperatures; seems counterintuitive
to me; maybe I should
get a PhD too!
So how come the OLW radiation in the
CO2 absorption bands from the
surface manages
to get unhindered
to some altitude, then
gets absorbed, re-radiates half down towards the
surface, again unhindered and half towards space, again unhindered?
Others accept (correctly) that that is unlikely due
to the thermal inertia of our oceans and their cooling effect on the air so they propose an «ocean skin'theory whereby warming of the topmost molecules on the ocean
surface from extra downwelling infra red radiation from extra human
CO2 in the air is supposed
to reduce the natural energy flow from sea
to air so that the oceans
get warmer and then heat the air and kill us off that way.
My take is that the radiation in the H2O and
CO2 absorption bands shuttles back and forth between being absorbed and re-emitted by the
Surface and Atmosphere (where about half heads in the direction of Space), all the while transforming a bit
to the ~ 10μm region, which
gets a free pass
to Space, with each transaction.
«But if we don't — there's a guy down the hall, I never knew what he did, I mean, he's a chemist and I don't talk
to chemists, and then he came and he gave a lecture
to our conservation course this summer about the standardization of the pH of the
surface ocean globally, which he's in charge of, and they measured a 0.1 decrease in pH and it's exactly what they're expecting from the increase in
CO2, and you can plot the graph and you know when you're going
to get there.»
That happens partly through «new» absorption of radiation that more or less used
to escape directly from the
surface, as well as absorption and re-emission of radiation that used
to get absorbed and re-emitted at lower layers, but now (at higher
CO2) does so at higher layers.
I dislike very much the notion that one could suddenly double the amount of
CO2,
get a «radiative forcing» at the Tropopause, and then have this heat up that area, and «work its way down»
to the
surface (IPCC AR4 WG1 Fig2 - 2).
In a relatively dry atmosphere,
CO2 is not anywhere near saturated and so one will
get an increase in the downward IR flux
to the
surface.
Without any GHG no H2o,
CO2 etc the sun would essentially have free rein with no absorbtion, so
surface would
get 340 w / m2 thus raising up
to 278 K or 5 C
to start.
The change in
CO2 itself has very little
to do with this moist adiabatic response; you
get essentially the same temperature response if you just just prescribe and then warm the
surface temperature.