(e) How do we know man made
CO2 has any warming effect?
Of course several denizens on this board have denied CO2 is a greenhouse gas (by denying the greenhouse effect) and have denied that Earth has warmed (by claiming global temperature is meaningless concept) and denied that rising
CO2 has a warming effect.
I suspect
CO2 has some warming effect, but I'm quite sure natural processes can cool to catastrophe.
Could you please clarify — because I have always found your little mantra about the war being over (which I now interpret as
CO2 has some warming effect) and having to use pen and paper (which I interpret as writing and call my legislators) confusing.
If
CO2 has a warming effect, the mars, which has a greater partial pressure of CO2 at the surface than does earth, should be warm, but it is not.
Not exact matches
«Considering the Southern Ocean absorbs something like 60 % of heat and anthropogenic
CO2 that enters the ocean, this wind
has a noticeable
effect on global
warming,» said lead author Dr Andy Hogg from the Australian National University Hub of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
SAVANNAH, GEORGIA — The glut of humanmade carbon dioxide (
CO2) that is spurring global
warming may
have an unwelcome side
effect for hay fever sufferers: It could help ragweed flourish and crowd out other plants, ecologists say.
El Niño — a
warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters that changes weather patterns across the globe — causes forests to dry out as rainfall patterns shift, and the occasional unusually strong «super» El Niños, like the current one,
have a bigger
effect on
CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
The shorter - lived gas
has a much stronger
warming effect than
CO2.
I'm not even an amateur climate scientist, but my logic tells me that if clouds
have a stronger negative feedback in the Arctic, and I know (from news) the Arctic is
warming faster than other areas, then it seems «forcing GHGs» (
CO2, etc) may
have a strong sensitivity than suggested, but this is suppressed by the cloud
effect.
«In some sense, we might
have competing
effects going on in Antarctica where there is low - level
CO2 warming but that may be swamped by the
effects of ozone depletion,» he said.
The oceans
have absorbed approximately one third of human - produced
CO2 emissions, dampening the
effects of carbon dioxide - driven greenhouse
warming.
Essentially, the «father of global
warming,» James Hansen, admits that near - doubling atmospheric
CO2 will
have negligible
effect on global climate — an increment of < 1 °C.
Is there a top end to the
warming trend where we
have so much
CO2 in the air, more does not increase the greenhouse
effect any more?
China
has the largest
CO2 emissions today (Fig. 11A), but the global
warming effect is closely proportional to cumulative emissions [190].
«While major green house gas H2O substantially
warms the Earth, minor green house gases such as
CO2 have little
effect....
but even if the current tooo - short - to - call cooling trend reverses, and it is proved that
co2 MIGHT
have some limited
effect on planetary
warming, then the question is, how much
warming?
Let me try to be more explicit: if you want to assume (or, if you prefer, conclude) that aerosols produced by the increased burning of fossil fuels after WWII
had a cooling
effect that essentially cancelled out the
warming that
would be expected as a result of the release of
CO2 produced by that burning, then it's only logical to conclude that there exists a certain ratio between the
warming and cooling
effects produced by that same burning.
Higher levels of
CO2 prior to 1940
had some role in
warming at that period, because of the greenhouse
effect, but are insufficient when calculated to explain all the
warming.
If those aerosols canceled the
warming effect of fossil fuel emissions from 1940 - 1979, as
has been claimed, then they
would have had the same
effect prior to 1940, regardless of whether the volume of both
CO2 emissions and aerosol emissions were smaller.
Other factors
would include: — albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct
effect of
CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
With the cosmic ray
effect we
have ~ 0.3 C of solar
warming combined with ~ 0.2 of
CO2 warming, which is then offset by human - produced aerosols to yield ~ 0.3 of waring.
Unlike others, I'm not saying that because of all this, «global
warming stopped in 1998 therefore
CO2 has little
effect».
Clearly atmospheric
warming has multiple causes, including
CO2 and solar changes, geothermal energy and forest fires etc and all can be at the same time, but research shows solar changes
have limited
effect, and
CO2 is dominating in recent decades and will continue to dominate.
Another point: even if solar variability, for some magical reason,
had a noticeable
warming effect over the last decades, this
would have to come in addition to the
CO2 -
effect and
would not call it into question.
If you believe the
warming is natural, first please explain why the increases in
CO2 isn't
having the
effect our knowledge of physics tells us it will
have.
V 323: If those aerosols canceled the
warming effect of fossil fuel emissions from 1940 - 1979, as
has been claimed, then they
would have had the same
effect prior to 1940, regardless of whether the volume of both
CO2 emissions and aerosol emissions were smaller.
Oh, and we
've increased
CO2 by 100 ppm already (it doesn't quite
have the punch of the other 100 ppm because of logarithmic
effects, yadda yadda, but the court can be assured we're going to
warm up by about an ice age by 2100).
If the
warming effects of
CO2 emission from ff were essentially neutralized after the 1940s, then one
would expect that a similar neutralization
would have been in
effect prior to 1940.
The drought - induced decline of carbon - dense tropical forests and their replacement by lower - carbon savannas
would release enormous amounts of
CO2 to the atmosphere, amplifying global
warming far beyond the
effects of just the
CO2 released by burning fossil fuels.
Imagine, however, that in this situation, one suddenly
warmed the surroundings by another mechanism that
had little or no
effect on IR absorption by
CO2.
So, if you
have two identical glass greenhouses with thermally isolated mercury thermometers at equilibrium in the sunlight [One with Air at Press =P, and the 2nd w /
CO2 at Press =P], and you close the blinds — you will see the thermometer in the
CO2 greenhouse retain its temperature longer — not because of any «global
warming» type
effect, but simply because Air conducts heat to the walls of the greenhouse better than Air does.
That's a hypothesis and, arguably, a reasonable ASSOCIATION, but cause and
effect has hardly been established, and I understand it's not clear whether global
warming causes an increase in
CO2, or vice versa.
One general result of these complexities is that
CO2 has its strongest
warming effect about 10 - 12 miles above the surface of the earth.
Warming of the oceans leads to increased vertical stratification (decreased mixing between the different levels in the oceans), which
would reduce
CO2 uptake, in
effect, reducing the oceanic volume available to
CO2 absorption from the atmosphere.
Regarding the issue of liability for the
effects of global
warming, I
would like to point out that we're (USA & developed nations population mostly) the ones who burned the fossil fuels to
CO2, not Peabody Coal or Exxon / Mobil.
Particle Pollution's Cooling
Effect... Plus Death Interestingly, this particle pollution has the opposite effect on the climate as does the ship's carbon emissions: The particles have a cooling effect that is at least five times greater than the warming effect of the CO2 emis
Effect... Plus Death Interestingly, this particle pollution
has the opposite
effect on the climate as does the ship's carbon emissions: The particles have a cooling effect that is at least five times greater than the warming effect of the CO2 emis
effect on the climate as does the ship's carbon emissions: The particles
have a cooling
effect that is at least five times greater than the warming effect of the CO2 emis
effect that is at least five times greater than the
warming effect of the CO2 emis
effect of the
CO2 emissions.
In regards to: «Regarding the issue of liability for the
effects of global
warming, I
would like to point out that we're (USA & developed nations population mostly) the ones who burned the fossil fuels to
CO2, not Peabody Coal or Exxon / Mobil.»
Brian Dodge (359) Says: -LCB- Regarding the issue of liability for the
effects of global
warming, I
would like to point out that we're (USA & developed nations population mostly) the ones who burned the fossil fuels to
CO2, not Peabody Coal or Exxon / Mobil.
This is a peer reviewed paper by respected scientists who are saying that aerosol forcing means that the majority of the
warming caused by existing
co2 emission
has effectively been masked thus far, and that as aerosols remain in the atmosphere for far shorter a duration of time than
co2, we will
have already most likely crossed the 2 degree threshold that the G8 politicians
have been discussing this week once the cooling
effect of aerosols dissipate.
Let's see... many models show that aerosols could
have been artificially keeping the world's average surface temperature cooler by about 3 - 5 degrees C from 1900 - 2000 --(sulfate aerosols certainly
have some certifiable cooling
effects cancelling out the
warming effects of
CO2).
So, if you
have two identical glass greenhouses with thermally isolated mercury thermometers at equilibrium in the sunlight [One with Air at Press =P, and the 2nd w /
CO2 at Press =P], and you close the blinds — you will see the thermometer in the
CO2 greenhouse retain its temperature longer — not because of any «global
warming» type
effect, but simply because Air conducts heat to the walls of the greenhouse better than
CO2 does.
For example, we
have done many GCM simulations showing that tropical deforestation — at least averaged over the tropical land masses — induces
warming that is greater than the
effects of
CO2.
Bye the way physics guy, increased
CO2 warms earth some, leading to more water vapor which
has a greater greenhouse
effect than the
CO2 as such.
Before allowing the temperature to respond, we can consider the forcing at the tropopause (TRPP) and at TOA, both reductions in net upward fluxes (though at TOA, the net upward LW flux is simply the OLR); my point is that even without direct solar heating above the tropopause, the forcing at TOA can be less than the forcing at TRPP (as explained in detail for
CO2 in my 348, but in general, it is possible to bring the net upward flux at TRPP toward zero but even with saturation at TOA, the nonzero skin temperature requires some nonzero net upward flux to remain — now it just depends on what the net fluxes were before we made the changes, and whether the proportionality of forcings at TRPP and TOA is similar if the
effect has not approached saturation at TRPP); the forcing at TRPP is the forcing on the surface + troposphere, which they must
warm up to balance, while the forcing difference between TOA and TRPP is the forcing on the stratosphere; if the forcing at TRPP is larger than at TOA, the stratosphere must cool, reducing outward fluxes from the stratosphere by the same total amount as the difference in forcings between TRPP and TOA.
Recall, too, that since the relationship between
CO2 (or any other GHG) and
warming is logarithmic, the earlier increases
have a greater
effect than you
would think.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while
CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent
have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it
would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to
have opposite
effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
Your estimates of climate sensitivity come from the IPCC, which assumes that aerosols will continue to provide a very strong cooling
effect that offsets about half of the
warming from
CO2, but you are talking about time frames in which we
have stopped burning fossil fuels, so is it appropriate to continue to assume the presence of cooling aerosols at these future times?
So while the sensitivity of
CO2 /
warming may be an important (though somewhat uncertain) matter, so too is how sensitive nature is in emitting GHGs in response to the
warming (& to the concomitant GW
effects), and this it seems is a lot more uncertain and
has a lot more potential for danger... like some sleeping monster we keep poking.
However, albedo modification
would only temporarily mask the
warming effect of greenhouse gases and
would not address atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 or related impacts such as ocean acidification.