Published reports on the potential for sequestration fail to address the necessity of storing
CO2 in a closed system.
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In my model, that is to say neglecting surprises but just considering the atmosphere / ocean / CaCO3
system, if we stopped releasing
CO2 today and
closed the terrestrial biosphere to either releases or uptake of carbon, just
closed the
system,
CO2 would relax down to some value higher than today.
If the net feedbacks
in the climate
system are
close to zero, then the warming from
CO2 will be at or below the low - end projections of the IPCC.
I do not dispute the fact that elevated levels of
CO2 should cause elevated temperature,
in a
closed system.
At a recent debate at Oxford University, organized by the OU Engineering Society, I gave the undergraduates an argument from process engineering (which you will find
in outline
in my Union College presentation, and
in more detail
in my Hartford College lecture) to the effect that the
closed - loop temperature - feedback gain
in the climate
system (i.e., the product of the Planck parameter and the net sum of all unamplified feedbacks) can not much exceed 0.1, implying at most 1.3 K of warming per
CO2 doubling, compared with the IPCC's central estimate of 3.3 K.
For instance, about half the total rise
in atmospheric
CO2 concentration has occurred
in just the last 30 years — and of all the global life - support
systems, the carbon cycle is
closest to no - return.
It's only when deforestation and other land use changes made a net shift of carbon
in the short term carbon cycle from plants back into the atmosphere, that humans began to make a net positive return of
CO2 into the atmosphere (although deforestation is essentially reversible
in principle), and it's very true to point out that industrial scale animal husbandry with its high cost
in fossil - fuel - derived energy does mean that what might otherwise be a relatively
closed system of cycling
CO2 from the atmosphere through plants and then animals and back to the atmosphere, does become net positive with respect to
CO2 emissions.
It is a
closed circuit
system, so the
CO2 doesn't have to be replaced, and the batteries
in the ring recharge themselves by capturing the energy of the spinning drum through induction.
Maybe, just maybe,
CO2 reacts differently
in an open and mixed
system, at far, far, far lower concentrations than a
closed, isolated, at far, far, far, far, far, far, higher concentration of
CO2 system.