That's when
CO2 is at its highest levels — and when when the floods come.
If CO2 forces temperature so strongly, then why did the NH freeze solid at the end of the Eemian while
CO2 was at the high levels?
geologyjim says: January 3, 2013 at 8:52 pm T always begins to decline just when
CO2 is at its highest level T always begins to rise just when CO2 is at its lowest level.
And of course,
CO2 is at the highest levels during any interglacial of the past 800,000 years at least.
Not exact matches
When the fish grew up in fresh water and seawater with
high concentrations of
CO2, they lost weight
at double the rate of fish that
were only exposed to salt water with
higher CO2 levels.
Part of the reason it took longer to recognize the impact of
CO2 is because adult fish tend to
be more capable of handling
higher levels of acidity, said Colin Brauner, a zoology professor
at UBC and co-author of the study.
So, we
're talking about this period 3.5 million years ago, this
is the middle Pleistocene, and that
's where the
CO2 concentrations
were round about 400 ppm; and if we want to look
at CO2 concentrations considerably
higher than that, we
're going to go much deeper in time, and then we
're really going into periods where sea
level was even
higher.
In this study in Timothy grass, researchers led by environmental health scientist Christine Rogers of the UMass Amherst School of Public Health and Health Sciences (SPHHS) determined the interactive effects of
CO2 and ozone
at projected
higher levels on pollen production and concentrations of a Timothy grass pollen protein that
is a major human allergen.
CO2 levels are projected to
be 2.5 times
higher in the oceans by the end of this century, which
is causing the ocean to acidify
at a rate unprecedented for 300 million years.
The amount of carbon dioxide (
CO2) in the air
is now
at its
highest level in human history, largely because of coal - burning power plants and vehicle emissions.
The ice core data also shows that
CO2 and methane
levels have
been remarkably stable in Antarctica — varying between 300 ppm and 180 ppm — over that entire period and that shifts in
levels of these gases took
at least 800 years, compared to the roughly 100 years in which humans have increased atmospheric
CO2 levels to their present
high.
Once atmospheric
CO2 levels rise and plants begins to photosynthesise
at a
higher rate, the fungi may not
be able to provide nitrates quickly enough to meet the plants» demands.
Published in the journal Oecologia, the study
is the first to show that even freshwater fish which only spend a small portion of their lifecycle in the ocean
are likely to
be seriously affected under the
higher CO2 levels expected
at the end of the century.
But now we've got significantly more
CO2 in the atmosphere than there
was even during the warm periods, and climate scientists have some hints that we
're actually
at the
highest levels in perhaps 15 million years.
«Atmospheric
CO2 is not a pollutant, it
is in fact the very elixir of life,» Craig Idso, a science adviser to the
CO2 Coalition, said during a panel discussion
at CPAC exploring the benefits attached to
higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The 400 ppm mark
is of course somewhat arbitrary, and more important
is the buildup of
CO2 in the atmosphere and the fact that
levels this
high haven't
been present on Earth in likely about 3.5 million years, said Jason Smerdon, a climate researcher
at Columbia University's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory.
Extensive simulations [17], [194] confirm that the effect of solar variability
is small compared with GHGs if
CO2 emissions continue
at a
high level.
CO2 accounts for more than 80 % of the added GHG forcing in the past 15 years [64], [167] and, if fossil fuel emissions continue
at a
high level,
CO2 will
be the dominant driver of future global temperature change.
However, due to the
higher level of torque, the fuel saving
is considerable
at only 4.9 l / 100 km with emissions of just 129 grams of
CO2 per km.
With its two mono - scroll turbochargers, charge air cooler,
High Precision Injection, VALVETRONIC variable valve timing and Double - VANOS fully variable camshaft timing, the six - cylinder in - line engine and takes a clear and consistent aim at the higher echelons of performance, but is equally committed to developing significant torque from low engine speeds and achieving high levels of efficiency (fuel consumption combined: 8.4 l / 100 km [33.6 mpg imp] *; CO2 emissions combined: 197 g / km
High Precision Injection, VALVETRONIC variable valve timing and Double - VANOS fully variable camshaft timing, the six - cylinder in - line engine and takes a clear and consistent aim
at the
higher echelons of performance, but
is equally committed to developing significant torque from low engine speeds and achieving
high levels of efficiency (fuel consumption combined: 8.4 l / 100 km [33.6 mpg imp] *; CO2 emissions combined: 197 g / km
high levels of efficiency (fuel consumption combined: 8.4 l / 100 km [33.6 mpg imp] *;
CO2 emissions combined: 197 g / km *).
Higher levels of
CO2 prior to 1940 had some role in warming
at that period, because of the greenhouse effect, but
are insufficient when calculated to explain all the warming.
For large parts of the Earth's past history,
CO2 -
levels have
been at least 10 times
higher than today, with no apparent catastrophe.
450 million years ago the
CO2 -
level was 10 times
higher at a time when the climate
was even in a cold ice age epoch.
The whole issue
is that any
level above what
is often called the «effective radiating
level» (say,
at ~ 255 K on Earth) should start to cool as atmospheric
CO2 increases, since the layers above this height
are being shielded more strongly from upwelling radiation... except not quite, because convection distributes heating
higher than this
level, the stratosphere marks the point where convection gives out and there
is high static stability.
Also these trends this century
are against a background of
higher than estimated man made
CO2 emmisions and also that the forcing factor of this affect must have already
been at its
highest level during the 21st century and can only decline as total atmospheric
CO2 increases.
If you look
at constraints on
CO2 sensitivity — 3 degrees
is by far the most likely
level, but the chances of it
being higher than 4.5 degrees
are more than those of it
being below 2 degrees.
Put it this way if atmospheric
levels of
CO2 were fixed
at to - day's
level (380ppm) indefinitely when would we see global temperatures 0.5 deg C
higher than to - day.
For one thing, the timing with the industrial revolution
is hard to dismiss as a coincidence, especially since it
is known that
CO2 levels haven't
been as
high as they
are now for
at least ~ 1 million years (over which we have very good data from ice cores) and likely for the last 20 million years.
Last time the atmosphere
was at 400 ppm of
CO2 sea
levels were somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 feet
higher than today.
We've had both situations in the past — «Amsterdam» under ice about 20,000 years ago
at the last glacial maximum, and «Amsterdam» under water in the Pliocene, 3 million years ago, when
CO2 and sea
level were higher than today.
Low atmospheric
CO2 levels during the Permo - Carboniferous......
at a time when total atmospheric pressure
was similar or slight
higher than now.
Empirical evidence tells us that the last time
CO2 levels were at 400 ppm, the oceans
were considerably
higher, perhaps in the neighborhood of 85 feet.
Fred,
are you distinguishing the stratosphere temperature — during the period of nonequilibrium from — during the new equilibrium period after
CO2 stops increasing and the warming has
leveled off
at a
higher temperature?
Increased
CO2 in the stratosphere
at higher levels increases upwelling radiation to space which appears to have
been greater than absorption from below resulting in cooling
at higher levels.
It does seem
at first glance that a warm troposphere would warm the stratosphere, but the explanation that more of the earth - sourced infrared radiation
is absorbed lower in the the troposphere by
higher levels of
CO2 makes sense if one thinks about the thermodynamic losses involved in the
CO2 re-radiation processes; some of the earth - sourced infrared
is transformed into kinetic energy and only a fraction
is reradiated as more infrared radiation (if I
'm understanding correctly).
Real climate has forever stated that Delta
is going to
be 3 C with a atmospheric doubling of pre industrial
CO2 levels but now lots of people
are suggesting that 450 ppmv has a
high probability of reaching 2C of warming which because of sinks becomming sources
at this temperature
level presupposses 3C due to this
high level of positive feedback?
Actual and projected emission
levels are already
at the
high end of Hansen's «alternative scenario» which
was suggested as an achievable outcome (based on significant control efforts) that kept forcings (including
Co2, CH4 and black carbon) below a
level that Hansen considered would
be «dangerous» (specifically a
level that would avoid the melting of any significant fraction of the WAIS or Greenland ice sheet).
At high levels of
CO2 other physiological parameters including pollen productivity and stomatal frequency have also
been shown to increase.
The Lambert - Quiggin school of econometrics would agree there
's a likely
high R - squared and t statistic, and that these «prove» that
CO2 «causes» population growth and AGW, as well it may, as the same source (236, see below) shows that C3 plants (95 % of all plant matter) do best
at elevated
CO2 levels, eg soya, 61 %
higher mass when
CO2 rises from 160 to 330 ppm, with mass peaking
at CO2 600 ppm (today only 380).
His fellow Swede, physicist Anders Ångström, disputed Arrhenius's theory on the ground that the absorption bands would have saturated well before reaching that
level, but what neither Swede knew back then
was that
CO2 had more than 30,000 absorption lines most
at strengths insufficient to play any role until
CO2 had reached far
higher than the 6000 ppm of a hundred million years ago.
This would
be helpful in calculating the atmospheric concentration
at which
CO2 would cease to increase if emissions
were naturally (or forcibly) capped
at X %
higher levels than today.
This claim ignores the fact that
CO2 is a natural but very minor constituent of the atmosphere that
is indispensable to life on Earth and has
been at far
higher levels during most of Earth's history.
You answer: «Depends of what time of the day (and in what season) samples
were taken:
at night and mornings, the
highest levels are found, as
at night plants and soil bacteria respire
CO2 and wind speeds
are often low, thus all
CO2 of all sources (including human sources) accumulate, typically with over 100 ppmv compared to background.»
Ernst Beck has complied tens of thousands of analyses of early measurements of atmospheric
CO2, and concludes that
CO2 levels were much
higher during the 1930's warm period than the generally - accepted
levels;
CO2 dropped sharply during the cooling from ~ 1946 to ~ 1977; and
CO2 increased since 1977 due to the recent warming, and
is now
at similar
levels to the early 1940's.
The alternative formula, that a change in temperature causes a change in dynamic equilibrium between
CO2 release and
CO2 absorption
is far more normal in nature:
higher temperatures lead to a new equilibrium
at a
higher CO2 level.
It has to
be more reliable than the weather station I got for Christmas though, which together with my watch weather predictor and my existing internal weather station,
are all telling me its
been raining steadily for the last two days when in fact its
been gloriously sunny but with a fairly
high humidity (we live next to the ocean) Anyone up for our own monitoring of
co2 levels - if it
is at all practical?
In your many lines — thankyou — i found the key argument how you can
be convinced that the temperature only creates variation for a very short time: YOu write: «The net result
is that a new equilibrium (
at a
higher CO2 level)
is reached in relative short time, between a few months (seasons) to a few years (sustained
higher average temperature
level).»
The extra energy trapped by
CO2 at low
levels in the atmosphere
is radiated away by the
CO2 at higher levels.
While the Earth has
been warmer over the past 10 years than it
was 30 years ago, it
is also losing energy
at a
higher rate, even though the
CO2 level is higher now.
A new equilibrium (
at a
higher CO2 level) can
be reached, if the increase in atmospheric
CO2 is sufficient to increase the uptake by the oceans and biosphere to the same
levels as the continuous addition.