``... should be compared with events in the past like the PETM to get a solid feel for whether or not
CO2 is a driving force in the temperature response of the atmosphere.»
Regardless, whether or not
CO2 is a driving force seems to me to be a secondary issue.
Although it takes the MAJOR ASSUMPTION that increasing
CO2 is the driving force behind the increase to the current temperature Maxima.
Not exact matches
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[1]
CO2 absorbs IR,
is the main GHG, human emissions
are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the
CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water
is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles
is reducing the
driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders
are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its
driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (
driving up prices for disk
drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Despite your insistence otherwise, you evince at best a shallow understanding of basic principles of climate science (hint: while radiative
forcing is known to
be at least partially controlled by atmospheric
CO2, no «natural», i.e. internal source of variability has
been demonstrated that could
drive a global temperature trend for half a century), as well as an inability to recognize genuine expertise.
That increases the size of the temperature change per «small change» of doubling of
CO2 by almost one order of magnitude, and many people would dispute that an approximately 10 % GHG -
driven temperature increase for a «small change» in greenhouse
forcing is a «small temperature change».
Although the primary driver of glacial — interglacial cycles lies in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar energy
driven by changes in the geometry of the Earth's orbit around the Sun («orbital
forcing»), reconstructions and simulations together show that the full magnitude of glacial — interglacial temperature and ice volume changes can not
be explained without accounting for changes in atmospheric
CO2 content and the associated climate feedbacks.
There
is a difference between peaks and valleys in noisy processes (1998 surface air temperature, 2007 record minimum ice, or shipping at a few small areas on the edges of the Arctic ocean) and
CO2 forcing driven trends, especially when different measures.
[Response: To pre-empt some mutual incomprehension, note that industrial
CO2 rises
are certainly an anthropgenic
forcing and not a response (see here and here), but clearly
CO2 changes over glacial - interglacial cycles
is both a response (to Milankovitch -
driven changes) and a
forcing (since the additional radiative
forcing from
CO2 is about a third of that needed to keep the ice ages as cold as they
are — see here).
It
is the leap from the first to second sentence that
drives Soon
's research — the notion that if you can find enough correlations to solar
forcing, the impact of
CO2 must
be diminished, if not obliterated altogether.
Vetoretti and Peltier (2004) found that glacial inceptions can
be caused either by a strong obliquity
forcing or by a combination of eccentricity - precession
forcing and low
CO2 values, which
is in line with results from Berger and Loutre (2001) who found that
CO2 is important during times like the MIS - 11, when the insolation variations
are too small to
drive glacial - interglacial cycles.
If, in fact, the climate HAS changed over the millions of years of Earth's history (it has), and if, in fact, we
are not always able to explain why it has changed (we aren't), then I see no reason to accept the assumption that
CO2 has to
be the principal
driving force.
By cherry picking data inputs for aerosols, you can make
CO2 — and other GHGs — appear to
be the
driving force.
It should
be equally obvious that short term ocean fluctuations can not
be driven by short term
CO2 fluctuations because the action of radiative
forcing takes much longer than a year for its influence to
be felt in ocean temperatures.
So we have: LOD representing differential internal free energy described as a rotational kinetic energy - > dG SOI representing a pressure differential - > VdP Aerosols representing a reflective EM - > dEa TSI representing an external EM
driving force - > dEb ln (
CO2) representing a suppressive EM - > dEc Temperature and heat capacity (
S) combine - > SdT
If the pressure difference
is zero, there
is no extra
driving force and any exchange
is purely by diffusion (which
is very slow for
CO2 in water).
You see, I
was labouring under the (perhaps simplistically naive) impression that chemical associations such as HCO3 would have
forced more
CO2 down to the oceans because when you reduce the activity of
CO2 in the oceans you create a disequilibrium between PCO2atm and pCO2 aqueous and this increases the
driving force for transferring
CO2 from the atmosphere to the oceans.
The natural cycles can not
be reasonable removed until it
is known what in hell
drives them, how long they last, what sort of feedbacks do they create independently and among other cycles, how they interact with
CO2 and other first order anthro -
forcings that alter the earths surface, atmospheric and oceanic physiobiochemistry.
Any feedback loops must also fall in effect because if their
driving factor
is forcing from
CO2, then the
driving factor
is dropping.
Based on this empirical climate science, it would
be safe to conclude that current climate changes
are predominantly
driven by natural
forces, not human
CO2 trace gas emissions.»
However all of these changes may
be cyclic or quasi-chaotic in nature and not mainly
driven by the «
forcing CO2».
''... with regard to the IPCC claim that «the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (including
CO2)
is the
driving force for climate warming,» they note the following four problems:
And now comes an analysis of the BEST temperature dataset, which confirms the weak
driving force that
CO2 appears to
be.
If huge emissions of
CO2 are not
driving temperature increases, then the apparent cooling must
be a function of more powerful
forces, such as described in this latest peer - reviewed study.
Other Republican candidates should gleefully (and aggressively) point out that Huntsman
is indeed «crazy» because he refuses to accept the latest climate research and empirical evidence that proves natural
forces are the primary
forces driving warming and climate change, not the trace gas
CO2.
If marine organisms migrated similarly pre-1950s when
CO2 was an insignificant player, then the most parsimonious explanation
is identical migrations today
are driven by the same natural
forces.
Roger — You may also
be interested in evidence (admittedly tentative) that the PDO
is driven in part by external
forcings, including those arising from
CO2 increases.
Furthermore, it
's important to constrain all the other
forcings at work rather better because it isn't just
CO2 that
's driving changes.
When
CO2 rises, the imbalance rises, but as the climate responds with a rising temperature, that imbalance
is partially restored toward its earlier value, and so the magnitude of the
driving force for warming will always
be less than the magnitude of the difference in
CO2 levels.
The e-fold decay rate
is what your formula shows for some extra
CO2 above equilibrium to bring back the total
CO2 back to equilibrium (for a linear process): e-fold decay rate =
driving force / net sink rate 110 ppmv / 2.15 ppmv / year = 51.2 years
The fact that the IPCC had
been so adamantly opposed to any evidence of change in climate other than the anthropogenic contribution of
CO2 into the atmosphere
being the
driving force, should
be enough for even a lay person such as myself to raise real concern.
One of the parameters
is high stand or low stand conditions based on sea level transgression / regression curves which
is related to long term climate, but I
am not aware of any oil companies that use anything remotely resembling what I understand to
be a climate model with
forcings, and certainly not one
driven by something like
CO2, solar or anyhting else, simply because you can not know the necessary parameters over the millions of years of geological time that you
are interested in modelling.
It proves that
CO2 is NOT the
driving «
force» that caused «Global Warming» [Global Temperature Stagnation] from 1979 until 2012.
There
IS a heat source and a physical reality, that requires no
forcing to give it super powers as with puny
CO2 the palnts gobble up as much as they can get of, in fact.And explains the stable ice age and the Milankovitch linked interglacials, and how that sawtooth between repeated and predicatble limits can
be driven using known energy sources, specific heats and masses, plus simple deterministic physics, no statistical models or Piltdown Mann data set approaches.
Although it
is important to reduce the remaining climate uncertainties, such as the magnitude of the impacts of short - lived pollutants, it does not change the fact that
CO2 is very likely the
driving force behind the current global warming, or that if we double the amount of
CO2 in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels, the planet will likely warm in the range of 2 to 4.5 °C.
rapid warming in recent decades has
been driven mainly by non-
CO2 greenhouse gases, not by the products of fossil fuel burning,
CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate
forcings of which
are partially offsetting.
The van de Wal et al. [123] model has a 30 °C change in Northern Hemisphere temperature (their model
is hemispheric) between the MMCO and average Pleistocene conditions
driven by a
CO2 decline from approximately 450 ppm to approximately 250 ppm, which
is a
forcing of approximately 3.5 W
m − 2.
Hansen & Sato [60] suggest adding slow feedbacks one by one, creating a series of increasingly comprehensive Earth system climate sensitivities; specifically, they successively move climate -
driven changes in surface albedo, non-
CO2 GHGs and
CO2 into the feedback category, at which point the Earth system sensitivity
is relevant to an external
forcing such as changing solar irradiance or human - made
forcings.
We have shown that global temperature change over the Cenozoic era
is consistent with
CO2 change
being the climate
forcing that
drove the long - term climate change.
It
is apparent that
CO2 is not the
driving force behind climate, since there
is poor correlation between
CO2 and temperature for the last 20 years and over geologic time periods.
Since climate models
are dependent on the
CO2 greenhouse gas
being a major
driving force in the simulations, it
is not a surprise to those familiar with the subject that the simulated outputs continue to
be deeply flawed.
This chart also shows that
CO2 levels
are not
driving the considerable spikes of warming and cooling that take place - natural
forces overwhelm any
CO2 impact.
Rising
CO2 levels
are also particularly poignant as a
driving force.
If you
're in agreement with the general framework, and as you offered, I'd very much like to hear your over-whelming evidence for
CO2 as the
driving force of climate change.
DENIAL MYTH # 1: The source of all the
CO2 in the air
is outgassing from the mantle (Source: George V. Chilingar'
s (of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California) paper titled On global
forces of nature
driving the Earthâ $ ™
s climate.
If your graph should
be more close to the truth, Steve, doesn't this mean that
CO2 is unequivocally the
driving force of Global Warming since the 40s?
Using your previous example of the cyclic nature of climate over time frames of hundreds of years (
driven by Milankovich cycles, though several of us have had the impression you
're unaware of it), we
're not interested in time scales for which we have no * physical * basis for expecting a
CO2 -
forced trend.