The reason is much larger relative role of
the CO2 radiative cooling compared to the NO radiative cooling under solar minimum conditions as confirmed by SABER / TIMED measurements (Mlynczak et al. 2010).
And of course totally ignoring
that CO2 radiative cooling implies that emitted photons only move outbound and (possibly) are not reabsorbed and thermalized on the way out.
Not exact matches
Stratospheric
cooling as a result of excess
CO2 does influence ozone recovery, and ozone changes in the troposphere and stratosphere to have effects on
radiative balance of the planet.
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the
CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal
radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should
cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
The troposphere is currently
cooling radiatively at about 2K / day, and adding
CO2 to the atmosphere generally increases the
radiative cooling (primarily through increases in water vapor, though how these details play out also depend on the details of the surface budget).
In the stratosphere, the increased
radiative cooling with more
CO2 is a ubiquitous feature of double -
CO2 simulations and this leads to a drop in the temperature there.
Because latent heat release in the course of precipitation must be balanced in the global mean by infrared
radiative cooling of the troposphere (over time scales at which the atmosphere is approximately in equilibrium), it is sometimes argued that
radiative constraints limit the rate at which precipitation can increase in response to increasing
CO2.
I would argue that if we use a simple
radiative model with a variety of assumptions, no upper atmosphere
cooling but only warming will occur with increased
CO2 (see # 333), based on the
radiative transfer equations and the Second Law of thermodynamics, but when other complexities are introduced, this might change.
Thus, at least if the
CO2 band is sufficiently close to saturated at it's center at TRPP, and maybe even if it is not, the TRPP
radiative forcing will be greater than the TOA
radiative forcing for a doubling of
CO2, so their will still be initial stratospheric
cooling.
@RI: More
CO2 raises the optical depth (in layman speak, the top of the GHG
radiative «fog» above which IR is free to radiate to space and
cool).
More
CO2 raises the optical depth (in layman speak, the top of the GHG
radiative «fog» above which IR is free to radiate to space and
cool).
The collapse of the Sc clouds occurs because, as the free - tropospheric longwave opacity increases with increased
CO2 and water vapor concentrations, the turbulent mixing that is driven by cloud - top
radiative cooling weakens, and therefore is unable to maintain the Sc layer.
Then you say: «Your last item [
Cooling of the Stratosphere consistent with operation of Greenhouse Effect] is just enhanced radiative cooling due to increas
Cooling of the Stratosphere consistent with operation of Greenhouse Effect] is just enhanced
radiative cooling due to increas
cooling due to increased
CO2.
warrenlb, nothing at that site supports your denial of the S - B basis of climate alarm, supports your neglect of the significance of rapid collisional vs. slow
radiative decay of
CO2 * in the troposphere, or supports your dismissal of
CO2 *
radiative decay as the source of stratospheric
cooling.
The stratosphere
cools with more
CO2 because up there, the
radiative decay rate is faster than the collisional decay.
This unique feature of the Antarctic atmosphere has been shown to result in a negative greenhouse effect and a negative instantaneous
radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (RFTOA: INST), when carbon dioxide (
CO2) concentrations are increased, and it has been suggested that this effect might play some role in te recent
cooling trends observed over East Antarctica.
This includes
radiative forcings such as a warming sun,
cooling from sulfate aerosols or warming from
CO2.
The nifty thing is that
CO2's
radiative properties explain the predicted and observed stratospheric
cooling to boot.
I routinely see temps 70F (or more) colder than the surface, while clouds are 10 or 20F colder, clouds control the
radiative cooling rate of the surface, not
Co2.
The magnitude of this effect varies from model to model and leads to increased adiabatic heating of the polar regions, compensating in part the increased
radiative cooling from
CO2 increases.
I think it is a true statement to say that if increasing
CO2 since the industrial revolution has had an effect, then the recent record setting low in Bartlesville, OK would be impossible, since it is all
radiative cooling.
In the idealised situation that the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric
CO2 consisted of a uniform temperature change only, with no feedbacks operating (but allowing for the enhanced
radiative cooling resulting from the temperature increase), the global warming from GCMs would be around 1.2 °C (Hansen et al., 1984; Bony et al., 2006).
The shape of the
CO2 band is such that, once saturated near the center over sufficiently small distances, increases in
CO2 don't have much affect on the net
radiative energy transfer from one layer of air to the other so long as
CO2 is the only absorbing and emitting agent — but increases in
CO2 will reduce the LW
cooling of the surface to space, the net LW
cooling from the surface to the air, the net LW
cooling of the atmosphere to space (except in the stratosphere), and in general, it will tend to reduce the net LW
cooling from a warmer to
cooler layer when at least one of those layers contains some other absorbing / emitting substance (surface, water vapor, clouds) or is space)
Gerlich and Tscheuschner, despite their apparent mastery of the mathematics of
radiative transfer, don't know the difference between gross and net
radiative flux, and they are apparently unaware of the concept of causality in an Einsteinian framework — a molecule of
CO2 emitting a photon in a random direction can't know if there is a (
cooler or warmer) surface in the direction of emission until time has elapsed for the photon to travel to the surface and back, and has no mechanism to remember from one photon to the next whether there was a source of photons in that direction, or what the apparent temperature of the emitter was.
Here luck was on Broecker's side: the warming by other greenhouse gases and the
cooling by aerosols largely cancel today, so considering only
CO2 leads to almost the same
radiative forcing as considering all anthropogenic effects on climate (see IPCC AR4, Fig.