Pensioners and those on benefits will also suffer, as any future rises in inflation will wipe out any increase in payments, as last month's
CPI inflation figure is used by the government to calculate payment increases.
Even with the prospect of a near - term easing of inflation and perhaps even some negative
CPI inflation figures, the combination of strong real yields and principal safety makes these a good harbor for investors who want to sleep nights without accepting untenably low nominal yields (and the high associated durations - which I suspect many investors currently overlook).
Not exact matches
In the latest year,
inflation in underlying terms has been close to 2 1/2 per cent, though the headline
CPI figure is higher, principally reflecting the effect of rising fuel prices.
The
figure shows that in the first quarter of 2017, forecasters expected that 2018
CPI would be running at 2.3 percent, consistent with the Fed's 2 percent
inflation target using the PCE measure of
inflation.
Figure 7 shows the Blue Chip consensus forecast for
inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (
CPI) for 2018.
Whenever the
CPI show lower than expected
figures, then
inflation drops and the ECB is forced to cut interest rates, which makes the European currency less attractive and the EUR / JPY pair may drop.
CPI inflation in year - ended terms should stay in a narrow range around this profile over much of the forecast horizon, though volatility in oil and food prices over the past year will continue to have some effect on the year - ended
figures in future quarters.
Given this path for underlying
inflation,
CPI inflation is expected to dip temporarily below 2 per cent in early 2004 as the large March 2003
CPI figure drops out of the year - ended calculation.
In the March quarter, the annual
CPI inflation rate was 2.4 per cent, with underlying measures also close to that
figure.
September's
inflation figures put
CPI at 5.2 % and RPI at 5.6 %.
A Treasury spokesperson responds to October's
inflation figures, which showed
CPI falling to five per cent:
The latest
CPI figure demonstrated that year - over-year
inflation is now barely higher than 2.4 %.
If you truly want to understand the effects of
inflation between arbitrary months, you want to look up the appropriate Consumer Price Index (
CPI)
figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and compute the
inflation rate.
Since the
CPI is known in this case, this provides a method of adjusting
figures for the effects of
inflation.
Negative real yields, which are even more negative if trailing actual
CPI figures are used, indicate even more
inflation to come.
The logic is that the S&P 500 was trading too high and not justified by earnings per share
figures as measured by the previous ten years adjusted for
inflation (per the
CPI index).