Over the past three months, the financial market economists surveyed by the Bank have made no substantial revisions to their near - term forecasts for inflation, with the median
CPI inflation forecast for the year to June 2004 remaining unchanged at 2.3 per cent (Table 17).
Not exact matches
Respondents raised their
CPI forecasts with year - over-year
inflation now
forecast to hit 2.45 percent this year.
In fact, respondents have raised their consumer price index or
CPI (NYSE: CPY)
inflation forecast for in four of the past five surveys.
Based on the current level of oil prices, this
forecast implies that headline
CPI inflation would remain close to 3 per cent in the short term.
The
forecast I presented at the time was that when it had passed through, the rate of
inflation measured by the
CPI would settle at 2 1/2 per cent.
Figure 7 shows the Blue Chip consensus
forecast for
inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (
CPI) for 2018.
But dig a little deeper into the Consumer Price Index (
CPI) and you'll see that the
inflation rate, which the Fed is
forecasting at 2.6 % in 2018, has doubled since 2016.
CPI inflation in year - ended terms should stay in a narrow range around this profile over much of the
forecast horizon, though volatility in oil and food prices over the past year will continue to have some effect on the year - ended figures in future quarters.
The Bank's survey of market economists showed that the median
forecast for
CPI inflation for the year to June 2005 was unchanged following the release of the December quarter
CPI (Table 17).
The
inflation forecasts of financial market economists, as surveyed by the Bank, increased following the release of the September quarter
CPI (Table 12).
The median
inflation forecast of private - sector economists for the year to June 2001, as surveyed by the Bank following the release of the June quarter
CPI, has increased to 5.5 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the March survey.
I
forecast CPI inflation to be 1.0 % in 2016 — similar to the OBR which expects
CPI inflation to remain below target at 0.7 % in 2016 and 1.6 % in 2017.
A survey of trade union officials, conducted by ACIRRT (Australian Centre for Industrial Relations Research and Training) following release of the June quarter
CPI, gave a median
inflation forecast of 2 per cent over the year to June 1999, rising to 3 per cent over the year to June 2000 (Table 8).
Also, Fitch
forecasts that, «a high
inflation could have a fiscal impact if it keeps domestic funding costs elevated (yields can be as high as 20 % on short - term instruments), although we think the Bank of Ghana may have scope to ease monetary policy in 2017, as the impact of electricity tariff adjustments drops out of
CPI calculations, lowering headline
inflation.»
Moreover, the RBA explained that «
inflation has been revised a little lower over the
forecast period to allow for the upcoming reweighting of the
CPI in the December quarter.»
inflation has been revised a little lower over the
forecast period to allow for the upcoming reweighting of the
CPI in the December quarter
More importantly, the +3.0 % annual reading is below the BOE's
forecast that
CPI will rise by 3.2 % year - on - year in October, as laid out in the November
Inflation Report.
Inflation isn't totally disappearing: Even though the monthly rise in the main
CPI fell short of economists»
forecasts, the increase did follow an unchanged reading.